http://www.youtube.com/v/S6N05To9Dy8

                     

Somebody said that it couldn't be done,
But he with a chuckle replied
That "maybe it couldn't," but he would be one
Who wouldn't say so till he'd tried.
So he buckled right in with the trace of a grin
on his face. If he worried he hid it.
He started to sing as he tackled the thing That couldn't be done, and he did it.
Somebody scoffed: "Oh, you'll never do that;
At least no one ever has done it";
But he took off his coat and he took off his hat,
And the first thing we knew he'd begun it.
With a lift of his chin and a bit of a grin,
Without any doubting or quiddit,
He started to sing as he tackled the thing
That couldn't be done, and he did it.
There are thousands to tell you it cannot be done,
There are thousands to prophesy failure;
There are thousands to point out to you one by one,
The dangers that wait to assail you.
But just buckle in with a bit of a grin,
Just take off your coat and go to it;
Just start to sing as you tackle the thing
That "cannot be done," and you'll do it.

by Edgar A. Guest

Gold ETF GLD breaks down through its 200-day moving average for the first time in 3 years

                                                     click on the chart to enlarge it

Is GLD's break through its 200-day moving average a sign that central banks may be too slow to print money (QE)?

monthly view

All Eyes On The Euro.

Question ? Do we get a Santa Rally or does the Grinch step in !

Like usual, I'll take my clues from the price action and the chart patterns that develop as we go and virtually ignore most everything else.

Pay Attention !

"The adage "A picture is worth a thousand words" refers to the idea that a complex idea can be conveyed with just a single still image.

 It also aptly characterizes one of the main goals of visualization, namely making it possible to absorb large amounts of data quickly."

Follow up on shipping.

Huge rally.

This was a monster follow through day and we settled at the bear trap line. It is do or die time for the bear camp. A break above the bear trap line and the balance of power will shift into full bull mode. Now it's time to be focused on the price and playing the patterns as they unfold and ignore everything else.

A technical guide:  Watch for " crawling along" or repeated bumping of minor or major trend lines and prepare to see such trend lines broken.

Central Banks ( FED ) agreed to provide cheaper dollar loans to the European Central Bank- which can then provide cheaper dollar loans to cash-strapped European banks.

As a result of bankers united effort markets gaped approximately 40 points right from the gate. What's next ? Well we'll see, and in the meantime re-read the below blog for some possible scenarios. What's the edge here ? PATIENCE - patiently waiting for your set up to show up and accepting being out of the market as "A" position OR slowly start building your position in small increments and pyramid up only if confirmed correct by the market, staying nimble and aware that anything can happen in this crazy environment.

The ideal situation_ _ _

The ideal situation would be to see a bounce that set up new shorts on the larger time-frames. We got the bounce today but it is important to remain patient at this juncture. 
Remain focused on longer time frame and wait patiently for your entry before getting involved.

                                weekly view

Cash is king !

Stay positive, pal. Most people, when they lose, they whine, they quit. But you gotta be there for the turns. Everybody's got good luck, everybody's got bad luck. Don't run when you lose, don't whine when it hurts. It's like the 1st grade, nobody likes a crybaby.

-Gordon Gekko

Range again.

The market has lots of room to move around and even have a holiday rally ( dead cat bounce ) without even coming close to negating the technical breakdown and follow through we have seen recently. There is an increased expectation  that another move lower will occur once oversold conditions are removed. Last Thursday's breakdown out of the triangle confirmed that near term market direction is down and for long-only position trader in growth stocks, cash is king.

Note:  Lots of hedge fund managers are selling their positions and going flat/bonds.

Bears did a good job today.

Watching triangle.

Remember, it isn’t the break of the pattern initially that is most important but the subsequent follow through that comes after it.

Follow up on shipping.

Today we crossed handle's high pivot point 41.42 level and our entry just above it. The bottom of the handle is approximately 10%  from the buy point, and just below this area is a good place to put a protective stop.
GLNG's earnings were $0.01 a share in 2010, with forecasts of $0.92 in 2011. and $1.75 in 2012. With focus on 2012's numbers and the 90% estimated earnings growth we can expect shares' price advancing further.

The information contained herein is for educational purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as an offer to hold, sell or an offer to buy any securities.

Coiling up !

Waiting to see break one way or the other, overall probability still favors an upside breakout. Technically speaking a triangle is continuation pattern. There is a good size move coming soon.

Waiting.

Trading volume is low today, and so far this sell off  is not convincing.

No one is winning so far.

Three patterns to watch.

My steps of visualization used for better trading performance.


1) Sit in a quiet place with no distractions.
2) Close your eyes and clear your mind of all thoughts. (focus on your breathing only)
3) Run through your rules and trading plan.
4) Picture a trade or trades that were profitable.
5) Let the feelings come to you and accept them.
6) Focus on how you feel and what you will do today ( visualize possible scenarios)
7) Run through your rules and trading plan again.
8) Clear your mind.( focus on your breathing only)

Perceptions.

Successful trading often involves doing the opposite of what everyone else

is thinking and doing. If it’s logical, and everyone is thinking the same

way, it’s not likely going to make money. 

The edges lie in looking at the obvious and many times

looking to do the opposite. It helps to have this philosophy…and it further

helps to have the statistics and experience to back it up with confidence.

VIX

There are many, many strategies you can use by applying the VIX to the

market. The key thing to remember is that you want the VIX to be extremely

stretched from recent levels in order to give you a lower risk,

higher reward opportunity to enter the market

Ed's wisdom.

"I prefer not to dwell on past situations.
I tend to cut bad trades as soon as
possible, forget them, and then move
on to new opportunities." - Ed Seykota 


I think it's an idea that could be applied not just to trading, but to all aspects of our lives.

30 min. view of SP-500

11/11/11

Markets gaped up and are steadily ticking up, very firm and strong action so far on
                                                    Remembrance Day

                                                  flowersgallery.net

Why not, nice reversal !

Check Monday's blog, there you can find ranges and/or targets and Tuesday's blog  where you have sentiment chart and a chart of S&P 500 to get better understanding and an insight of where we are at the moment. For most people at this juncture the best thing might be to be in cash. 

What I learned from George Soros.

"The worse a situation becomes the less it
takes to turn it around, the bigger the upside."
Think about it !

The American Tourist and the Mexican Fisherman.

An American tourist was at the pier of a small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked.

Inside the small boat were several large yellowfin tuna. The tourist complimented the Mexican on the quality of his fish and asked how long it took to catch them.

The Mexican replied, “Only a little while.”

The tourist then asked, “Why didn’t you stay out longer and catch more fish?”

The Mexican said, “With this I have more than enough to support my family’s needs.”

The tourist then asked, “But what do you do with the rest of your time?”

The Mexican fisherman said, “I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take siesta with my wife, Maria, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine and play guitar with my amigos, I have a full and busy life.”

The tourist scoffed, ” I can help you. You should spend more time fishing; and with the proceeds, buy a bigger boat: With the proceeds from the bigger boat you could buy several boats. Eventually you would have a fleet of fishing boats. Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you would sell directly to the processor; eventually opening your own cannery. You would control the product, processing and distribution. You could leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Mexico City, then Los Angeles and eventually New York where you could run your ever-expanding enterprise.”

The Mexican fisherman asked, “But, how long will this all take?”

The tourist replied, “15 to 20 years.”

“But what then?” asked the Mexican.

The tourist laughed and said, “That’s the best part. When the time is right you would sell your company stock to the public and become very rich, you would make millions.”

“Millions?…Then what?”

The American said, “Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take siesta with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play your guitar with your amigos.”

Think about your goals and what will you become, do, and have when you achieve them. Enjoy !

Up auction continues.

Similar price action as yesterday, first we had a gap up in price, but after half an hour of buying, selling started and continued for an hour and a half, then bulls came back and took control. Plus we had some help from Treasury operations today buying coupons. Today we crossed that very important 200dma S&P and now we'll see what happens next. There is lots of noise out there, but as always, the best thing to do is to focus on the price action above all else. 

A chilling similarity.

you can click on the chart to enlarge it

China's Gold Imports Jump Sixfold

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45198734

Interesting.

The 3 day tight range.

The market produced another positive day today and up auction continue. 

Now we have a relatively tight range to watch, resistance 

( Oct., last swing highs ) to be taken out or support ( Nov. 1st lows ) to be broken. 

Linkedin is a recent IPO that is worth watching.

Follow up on shipping.

Reaching for the stars !

We have a target, first 200dma and then Oct. highs. We have a support around Tuesday's lows. Today's action showed buyers are in control and up auction continues for now.

Attitudes are more important than facts !

According to recognized aeronautical tests, the Bumble Bee cannot fly because of the shape and weight of his body in relation to his total wing area. The Bumble Bee doesn't know this, so he goes ahead and flies anyway.

In trading your attitudes and beliefs are very important. Below are some of my trading believes to help you start thinking about your attitudes and believes.

I believe that the market is discounted mechanism, meaning the information is already priced into the market.
I believe that patterns repeat themselves because crowds behave in the same way, not individuals, but crowds do.
I believe the markets are ether consolidating or trending.
I believe the future is unknown.

The Plan.

I like to plan my trades before I enter them and write the plans on paper with a pen [writing the plans on excel spread sheets on my computer do not evoke the same feelings in me]; this allows me to have the plan in front of me and I can 'follow along' as the trade unfolds. If I get anxious or if I walk out of the game room and come back in and need to refresh my mind, the plan is there in front me: I simply look at the plan and go back to executing the original plan. Plan, if you stick with it, take many of the emotions out of your trading.  

There is nothing more bullish to a market than sold out bulls. There is nothing more bearish than covered bears.

30min.view , potential head & shoulders setup that would be confirmed by breaking this week's lows
                                                                   
                                                                                OR

daily view , we can trade above last week's highs and the 200dma

VIX is up 42% since Friday's close.

That kind of move tends more often than not to produce a bounce in the market.

Watching to see if the market can stabilize itself and then begin to form a base support suggesting that a higher low is being formed.

Time to rest.

Limit losses, ride profits-regardless of all other rules.

This is the simplest, basic and the best rule you can follow. I'm always glad when I execute it efficiently. Do all you can to gain as much when you are right and to lose as little as possible when you are wrong-regardless of all other rules.

Today the market produced a positive price follow through from the breakout.

Trend following idea, not sexy but could be profitable. Today we had a buyable gap-up with defined fail-safe point at 15.67 or 16.10 whatever is better for your risk budget.

Above chart is showing an "all time high" idea from the shipping sector. Note, an idea is not the same as the plan, you need to know your risk point and your potential profit taking point and you need to risk enough to be meaningful to you if you profit but small enough that you can accept the loss if your edge doesn't work this time.

Remember: The market alternates between range expansion and range contraction. 

The information contained herein is for educational purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as an offer to hold, sell or an offer to buy any securities.

Up and down and all around.

Today we had a news that "Europe will be saved" and that helped bulls to take control again. Tomorrow is another day and anything can happen. We can break above Monday's high or we can go below today's low. More news from Europe, more earnings, GDP and jobless claims are all going to add the fuel to the move.
If you are bearish here remember that operation "Twist" or QE3 began on Oct. 4, 2011 and the market has gone up since with no or little pause. I'm going into tomorrow with neutral bias, and try to stay in the moment of opportunity flow, trading my patterns as they develop.

There is a way to play.....

Some of the S&P500 stocks to report earnings this week.

Tomorrow will probably be the biggest day of the week for earnings with Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS) set to report in the morning and Apple (AAPL) and Intel (INTC) set to report after the close.  Morgan Stanley (MS) and United Technologies (UTX) will report Wednesday morning followed by eBay (EBAY) in the afternoon.  AT&T (T), Philip Morris (PM), Chipotle (CMG), Microsoft (MSFT) and Sandisk (SNDK) will report on Thursday, and General Electric (GE) and McDonald's (MCD) will wrap up the week on Friday.

Trading now.

I continue to position in agreement with the controlling price action, keeping risk in check, trading day by day, and I am prepared for just about anything.