for bottom fishing operators; new signal generated

we have a swing low detection, a higher low and an inside day

"Sometimes traders can feel alone in their experiences – particularly when stupid errors and large losses occur and during long, flat periods. Believe me, I have made every mistake in the book, have suffered through many sleepless nights and have had conversations with the higher powers that be. Through it all, I have never wanted to leave the trading business. I don’t love trading and I don’t hate it; it is just what I do. I love working."

Small speculators are the only one holding net long at the moment. Both commercial speculators and large speculators are now net short Russell 2000.

The market could “go either way”

“Sam’s fatal flaw...is that he had a preconceived idea of where the market would go...when conditions changed...Sam refused to accept the new evidence...Instead, Sam began to search for shreds of evidence to support his bearish case. This is a very common trait of stock market investors. Psychologists would call it ‘selective perception’. One sees only what one wants to see. Unfortunately, in the stock market, there is always some bearish evidence and some bullish evidence. You never have difficulties unearthing clues to back your viewpoint...I could argue that a year after I had turned bullish the market was higher. I could argue that I was not wrong, just ‘early’. I could stubbornly insist that I was right and the market was wrong...The fact is, I was just plain wrong, I knew deep in my bones I was wrong, but my ego got the best of me…” - Martin Zweig in Winning on Wall Street

Russell

One of my favorite scenes...

Markets state in summary, the $SPX and volatility charts are bullish, while other indicators are on or near sell signals, or are in very overbought states. That's not as bullish as things were a week or few ago, but it's still bullish.

Risks to market in 2020

Commodities Historically Undervalued Relative To Stocks

The trend is up for now.

                                 observe participation, volume

"Global Stagnation"

Now in sync with other central banks, Chinese markets leaped as its central bank cut its one-year interest rate for the first time in three years to relieve a worsening liquidity situation in the local bond market.
Over in Europe, GDP in the EU grew by a scant 0.2% in the last quarter ended September while the European Union Commission cut its forecasts for growth and inflation, warning that the worst is still to come for the euro zone economy. The Commission said growth will stay sluggish through 2021, at a forecast 1.2% with inflation to stay around 1.3%, well below the ECB's 2% target, with just a scant 0.7% in France and 0.3% in Italy.
Christine Lagarde now heads the ECB. She has lambasted Germany, the Netherlands, and other EU countries for not running a looser fiscal policy. Expect the ECB to continue to accelerate QE.
Over the last decade, rates in some countries have been cut to 0% or negative percent where quantitative easing was initiated through almost every fixed income asset available. In 2018, the central banks tried to unwind QE. Markets reacted badly. In December 2018, Fed Chair Powell reversed course and gave the markets what they wanted- more QE. The month of December 2018 was the low for major U.S. exchanges. Other central banks had no choice but to follow the same course, driving their balance sheets to record levels. 

Lagarde says the ECB should boost their fiscal spending, using their budget surpluses to fund investments that would help stimulate the economy. But given the current state of the economy, this is one of the last things that central banks and governments can do to spur some growth. If that does not work, we move on to helicopter money. It seems central bankers are willing to send rates to even more negative levels if it means kicking the can on a global, populist uprising. Indeed, Lagarde noted, "We should be happier to have a job than to have our savings protected." 
Meanwhile, US debt has grown from $19 trillion to $22 trillion under Trump, despite his election promises of going to bring the US budget deficit down 'bigly'.
Adding insult to injury as concerns global growth, agreement between the U.S. and China on trade issues appeared to be closing in on the first phase of a deal, but that was an illusion, and the countries have disappointed numerous times, so material progress could still be a long way off if both countries continue to play hard ball. China could play the waiting game of seeing whether or not Trump is re-elected in 2020 while Trump could see his reelection as secure thus demand more than China is willing to give.

Will exponential-growth technologies save the day or at least mitigate the depths of the next recession? Stay tuned.

The basics of technical analysis.

Don't over think. Sit on your hands. Let the trade come to you.

                                                                Miro

"‘No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than successful speculation."

A stronger than expected reading of the October jobs report provided more bullish fodder for stocks, as the S&P 500 sat higher by nearly 1% late in the session to close at a new record high.