"Ordinary efforts tire us. Extraordinary efforts in the service of deeply held ideals energize us. When we tackle extreme challenges for extremely meaningful causes, we tap into hidden wellsprings of energy. It is that second wind that fuels outstanding performance and creative achievement."

Robert FREY - 180 years of Market Drawdowns

 180 years of Market Drawdowns


“Most of the time even when we are in a good investment, we are in a state of regret."

“You are going to bed with an upset stomach because you have lost money most of the time and do not know what is going to happen”

“You are in a drawdown state 80% of the time and of that, you are in a severe drawdown state (greater than -20%) 67% of the time”

“Most of the time an investor is facing a market of regret…”

Trend is up to sideways. Enjoy the ride.

                             

  is this a finl flag and a beginning of a pullback or it's going to go higher first before it corrects, could keep going sideways for a bit more here,  let the market tell you what to do

gbpnzd

Choose yourself | James Altucher | TEDxSanDiego

GBPNZD

       

possible reversal; a low probability and high risk reward opportunity, success rate 40%

            The information contained herein is for educational purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as an offer to hold, sell or an offer to buy any securities.
                   

Trend is still up. Enjoy the ride.

Black Swan rally?

"Everyone knows that the Emini needs a pullback after so many weeks up without one. The stops are far below. Bulls have big open profits. They have to reduce risk, and the easiest way is to take profits. That selling creates the pullback. Whenever anything is obvious, traders need to pay particular attention to the opposite.

When there is high probability one way, there is low probability the other way. Hence, everyone ignores the low probability direction. If the market begins to go in the low probability direction, traders are in denial. However, this results in bears trapped in as they sell new highs. Bulls don’t buy because they also think the rally will fail.

However, even a little rally can be enough to quickly make the bulls and bears worried. Both will begin to buy, and then buy in a panic. Hence, the low probability event can quickly turn into a rally that can continue up for a long time. Bears keep selling, picking tops, bulls keep scalping out. Yet, there is not enough selling to turn the market down. Bulls and bears therefore have to keep buying as the market goes up. Sometimes the buying is climactic. Other times it is a small pullback bull trend. If the Emini continues up above 2220, it might go up to 2400 before pulling back."

"Momentum investors are like the surfers we watch from beaches along the Pacific coast. Both must catch a wave. Both attempt to ride it as it breaks. But the ability to glide away smoothly before being caught inside the inevitable crash(ing wave) that follows is what determines success."

http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/how-not-wipe-out-momentum?nopaging=1

You have to remain humble, especially when things are going well because no one knows what’s going to happen or how long success will last.

looking at charts, it's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see, and what does it mean to you, and what are you going to do about it

Nassim Taleb, of “Black Swan” fame, was asked, “What are the biggest risks out there right now?” He replied:

The fact that the world, as a result of quantitative easing, has seen an asset inflation that benefited the uber-rich, and that nothing has been cured. One cannot cure debt with debt, by transferring from private to public sectors. The markets will ultimately crash again, although this time it will hurt a lot more people.

Trend is still up. Enjoy the ride.

                             Most sectors remain in uptrends like the market itself. 

To be successful, you must at this moment decide exactly what your goal is and lay out the steps by which you plan to reach it.

Research
Idea generation
Trade structuring
Position / Risk management 
Portfolio / Risk management
Self management
Performance management

Trend is still up. Enjoy the ride.

the best book on trend following

"If you take risks and face your fate with dignity, there is nothing you can do that makes you small; if you don't take risks, there is nothing you can do that makes you grand, nothing."

"Failure is a trickster with a keen sense of irony and cunning. It takes great delight in tripping one when success is almost within reach."