Nasdaq, yesterday's low is a support / major abort area if it doesn't hold. Watch to see if we can explode higher.

We can see now cumulative advance-decline lines making lower lows and lower highs. Would need a close below 3000 to confirm a bearish tilt, until then it's all "under the hood."

The market has stalled out recently. In the near-term, the bulls would like to see a close of the gap on the island, while the bears are looking for a breakdown below support. From a longer-term perspective, the picture is still one of caution, as the bulls won't fully be in charge until VIX closes below its 200-day moving average.

In summary, a more bearish outlook is justified as long as VIX remains above its 200- day moving average and as long as that island reversal is in place on the SP-500 chart.

"History has shown, and logic dictates, that if the system doesn’t strive to create equal opportunity for everyone who is able to work and to provide basic support for everyone who is not, the system will inevitably experience some form of revolution."

I had hoped for a reflation trade across commodities to have some legs, but its worth noting the five day risk / adjusted returns are weighted to the downside.

"If life hands you a lemon, don’t complain, but instead make lemonade to sell to those who are thirsty from complaining."

Wally Amos, the man whom many consider to be the father of the gourmet cookie industry, has turned lemons into lemonade so often in his life that in his official portrait he holds a pitcher in one hand and a glass of lemonade in the other. A perennial optimist, Amos refuses to acknowledge that obstacles are anything other than stepping-stones to success. In a career that has spanned several decades, he has made it to the pinnacle of success several times, only to lose everything and be forced to start over. But he’s never lost faith. “You have to have the trust and faith to let go and not agonize,” he says. “Don’t waste your time worrying. Worry is not preparation. Analyze the situation and focus on solutions. There is always an answer.”

For now, it's just a very sharp pullback in what is still a rising trend on the SP-500 chart. The bears have more work to do if they want to take control.

The overbought conditions intensified this past week with a couple of huge up days on June 5th and 8th, but then exploded into one of the worst down days in history on June 11th. The wild ride seems destined to continue.

Wild ride, it was starting to get ugly today, but then...

In summary, the short-term momentum is strong. We are seeing some extremely overbought conditions, as traders who had been cautious are now throwing caution to the wind. We will wait for confirmed sell signals before doing any shorting and/or put buying, and will wait for a price breakdown by S&Ps before any positions are established. Meanwhile, continue to ride the uptrend.

"Govopoly in the 39th Day"

Seykota wrote in his seminal book "Govopoly in the 39th Day" that when the costs and consequences of regulation outweighs productivity, that is the beginning of the end for that society. He said we have never been closer to that tipping point. He calls it the 39th day because in a pond ecosystem, duckweed doubles each day. He equates duckweed with government regulations. By the time you reach day 30, the amount of duckweed has become clearly noticeable and rules the pond. By the 39th day, the amount of duckweed suffocates any remaining life in the pond. We are at day 38, or the 11th hour. The average length of the long term debt cycle is 75 years so the current situation of fiat debasement can continue for yet a few more years before the sovereign debt bubble blows apart.