ung

                                                                  weekly

 

monthly

UNG

                                          ( for tomorrow buy stop at )  $20.20

follow up on AAPL

reference #'s  to consider below are 514.50 and 508.00

The single greatest challenge you face as an investor and a trader is handling the truth about yourself.

Now ~ 'The S&P 500 is up over 20% year-to-date. Despite the move it's had so far this year, most have had a tough time of things including the trend following wizards who are tracked here: http://www.automated-trading-system.com/trend-following-wizards-September-2013'

follow up on AAPL

                                   good reference point below is at 508.oo

AAPL

Apple's cash purse is so big, it represents approximately 10% of all US corporate cash ~ in one company 
~ failed failure, now looking for a break out of this triangle/flag/consolidation area

"All life is an experiment. The more experiments you make the better."

October: What’s the big deal?

In an already unsettled world, the month of October is known for its surprises. It is also known as the “jinx” month because of the crashes in 1929 and 1987; the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997; back-to-back massacres in 1978-1979; Friday the 13th in 1989; and the credit crisis meltdown in 2008.

10/10/08 marked the “Dow’s worst week in history on Wall Street” when the Dow lost 1874 points or (-18.2%) in one week. For whatever reason, the markets tend to send mixed directional messages during October.

October the Bear Killer

There have also been some wicked bottoms made in October, and that is why the month is also known as the “bear killer.” October has turned the tide in post-WWII bear markets in 1946, 1957, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, and 2011. The Dow made its previous 1589 top in 2007, the 20-year anniversary of the 1987 crash, then droppd 2.6%.

The end of October ends the “worst 6 months” for stocks and starts the best 6 months, from November to April. October is a great month to buy with solid gains from 1993-2007. And last but not least, October 2001 was the the second month to gain 1,000 Dow points.

Best 6 Months

The best 6 months for stocks starts November 1 and goes to April 30. While some people may dispute it, the stats speak for themselves. There are definitely good and bad seasons for the stock market and the fall is not a good time, but the year end tends to be.

The top performing months are November, December, January, March and April, dating back to 1950. The best 6 months gained 14,654.27 Dow points in 62 years, while May through October lost 1,654.97 points. The S&P gained 1,477.55 points in the best six months and lost 97.71 points in the worst six. For many traders, this is reason enough to take the summer off.

If the markets didn’t have enough historical reason to be spooked going into October, our government just handed us–and the world–a lot of avoidable uncertainty about the U.S. dollar and our ability to keep our house in order. It raises a broad range of questions and concerns about what the rest of the month will bring. ~ an excerpt from MrTopStep

The qestion is: can we hold the gains we got ?

most breakouts fail, but not all of them, follow through is the key now

the wiser a man becomes the more he knows that he doesn't know

S&P 500 cash

Friday was an inside day, the break tomorrow will set up the tone for the beginning of the week. Possible C&H formation. Confidence is low.

News : "Months of anticipation will come to an end this week when the Federal Reserve finally says whether it will start to rein in its massive stimulus of the economy, which has flooded financial markets with some $2.75 trillion over the past five years, supercharging returns on everything from stocks to junk bonds."

a major top ?

we don't know, but we know that majority of people are now stuck on the wrong side of the market
 re-read August 16th blog, What do we do now?

~ the more you struggle the quicker you sink ~ the first solution is always to relax and often move slightly in the direction that is opposite to what your instincts tell you

some simple solutions.........

When you are stuck, the more effort you put into trying to un-stuck yourself, the worse off you become. It’s a little like being stuck in quicksand—the more you struggle the quicker you sink. The first solution is always to relax and often move slightly in the direction that is opposite to what your instincts tell you. For example, a pilot going into a nosedive must first push gently into the dive to get air flowing under the wings properly. At that point he can begin to control the airplane. Similarly, when you start to skid in your car, you must first steer into the skid until you gain control over the car—which our natural reaction is to do the opposite.

If you are stuck in your goal of becoming an excellent trader, try doing the opposite of your instincts. If you must take a trade, make it okay not to take the trade. Instead, move toward working on your emotions.

The second solution is to focus on what you want. When you focus on limitations, you feel the emotions of the stop sign or the limitation. When you focus on what you want to achieve, then you begin to see possibilities and new resources that open you up. What is your focus?

Finally, the third solution is to focus on being what you want to be. If you want to be a great trader, don’t focus on what they have or do, focus on their state of being. What is it like to be a great trader? What is it like to step into their shoes?

New ~ P.G. Trading Tribe starting in September

NOTE ~ even though we call it the trading tribe it's not only for traders, but for anyone who is willing, able and ready to grow and improve their lives

The Trading Tribe

is an association of people who commit to excellence,

personal growth, and supporting and receiving support from each other.

The members of the Trading Tribe 

trade roles, becoming, in turn senders and receivers for each other.

Mastery Includes

• The Trading Tribe Process.
• Going with the Trend.
• Right Livelihood.
• Support Network.
• Contributing to Others
  
  for more info about the TTP process go to http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TT_Process/index.htm
  
  
  
  for application details and any questions regarding P.G. Tribe, 
  email mtci@telus.net

What do we do now?

Risk is high. Market's been trading sideways for a while, but now it looks like it's rolling over. There is lots of overhead supply created by people buying in the range and now stuck with a loss. The longer we stay below the range the more willing these people will be to sell and that can create even more selling. For now even though it looks like we are going to roll over,  I would not go and short yet, wait for a bounce, second entry is higher probability trade. Staying away from the long side now except for pickings in some areas, like metals, that can move independently of the market.

follow up on MCP

                              still stalking

Friday's News : Investigation of Molycorp, Inc. ;

there was lots of overhead supply before the news, now even more scared people, so it's going to be interesting to watch the price action next week
do we find support and turn around, or do we follow through on the gap, break down through support and accelerate, or do we stay in the range and find the fairest value in there for awhile

How Great Can You Be?

Some days trading will feel like a lion fight.

Remember that if you are going to fight every day, then you are going to get wounded from time to time and you will have scars. Don’t lick your wounds….. and realise 
that the scars you wear are a sign of a competitor. Just because you have a 
bad day fighting, does not mean you don’t know how to roar. 

http://vimeo.com/43266438#

The first secret of success.

"People become really quite remarkable when they start
thinking that they can do things. When they believe in
themselves they have the first secret of success."
- Norman Vincent Peale

" whatever you can conceive and believe you can achieve "

Rare Earth ~ MCP

                               possible transition

"You say you want a revolution. Well, you know we all want to change the world"

Beatles -1968


Q: What to focus on now ?

A: Your task :  " to build a better world "  God said. 

I answered,  " How?  The world is such a large place, so complicated now ; And I so small and useless am, there's nothing I can do. "  

But God in all His wisdom said,  " Just build a better YOU. "

How?  ~ You can build a better you and tap your amazing potential by setting realistic goals. It's never too late because it's never anything other than Now.
 ~ Miro ~

Pre-Market Update

"There’s little reason to doubt that the Friday-Monday Effect won’t dominate market action today. For those who missed Friday’s reports, the Friday Effect says that when the market ends on a strong up move on Friday, that trend continues on Monday. The same thing often happens on the downside as well."

 

principles which should be followed for success

~ trade the best markets, trade with the trend, bet small, use stop losses, cut losses, ride winners, don’t over-trade, be patient, be disciplined, be happy

 In a strange way, success comes from happiness. Most people think happiness comes from success.
~ Miro ~  

S&P 500

                                  click to enlarge

"Dramatic and emotional trading experiences tend to be negative. Pride is a great banana peel, as are hope, fear, and greed. My biggest slip-ups occurred shortly after I got emotionally involved with positions."

 - Ed Seykota

mine too

writing your journal

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnk-pzUAehs

"Not dead. Can't quit."

Richard J. Machowicz is a martial arts specialist who achieved certified
instructor rating in the U.S. Navy SEAL hand-to-hand combat program.
Even though he is not a trader, Larry Connors interviewedMachowicz
for TradingMarkets because so many of the insights in his book,
“Unleashing TheWarriorWithin: Using the 7 Principles of Combat to Achieve
Your Goals,” apply to trading. This conversation took place in late 2002.

LARRY CONNORS:Welcome Richard. I have a number of questions for you,
and our main focus in this interview will be on extreme achievement.
Our members tend to be type A individuals, many of whom have been
successful in a previous profession and are now trying to succeed in the
trading industry, which is a very, very difficult game. It is an extremely
mental game which has less to do with having the ability to get in and
out of positions than being able to sustain losses and handle chaos in
those positions. Most people can’t handle it. The failure rate in the industry
is high. And it’s high with people who are incredibly intelligent.
It also has to do with the fact that trading tends to be counterintuitive.
That confuses people because they have previously succeeded by being
intuitive and logical. Trading is just the opposite.Whatwe’re going to try
to do here is focus on achievement—why people achieve great success
— not only in trading, but in all walks of life.
Richard J. MACHOWICZ: Sounds great.
CONNORS: Themain thing that people are interested in is the fact that you
were a successful Navy SEAL. Let’s talk about the extreme training
process that one has to go through to become a SEAL. As I see it, it becomes
a mastery over two things. The first thing is the mastery over the
The Mind 123
SEALs which is one skill set, and the other
thing is the mastery over yourself, which is
harder to do. Do you want to talk about that
and take it from there?
MACHOWICZ: Sure.What it takes to make it as
a SEAL and to achieve extreme success in
anything in life really comes down to one
thing: How bad do you want it? There are
times when you think that the SEAL instructors
are literally trying to kill you. You have
to be able to generate the capacity to keep
moving forward in spite of that fact. Or at
least in spite of that belief. I think that’s the
real challenge, but I also think that it translates to everything you want
to do really badly in life.
It’s not some magic formula that’s going to allow somebody to go after
the thing they want to do. It’s the consistent progress or moving toward
the thing they want to do, regardless of whatever thing comes up—and
I call that thing “quitting.”
That quitting conversation will show up a hundred different ways.
You can say, “This thing is bullshit. This thing is crazy. I can’t believe
I’m doing this.” Or you can create things like, “Well, that person’s just
trying to hold me back,” or “I’m just not good enough.” Whatever. . .
I’m telling you, quitting sounds very reasonable. Literally, it’s a very
simple process of getting on target and moving forward vs. the conversation
that leads to quitting. And those conversations show up
every day for people. And really, that’s the battle. That’s the war. If
124 Chapter 14
“What it takes
to make it as
a SEAL and
to achieve
extreme success
in anything
in life really
comes down to
one thing:
How bad do
you want it?”
there’s a war going on, really the war is within yourself and one you
have to confront day after day.
Themajority of people who get selected to SEAL training will quit, drop
out or simply go away. You’ve got to be able to generate within yourself
themind frame that youmust always be going forward.And you’ve got
to want the thing bad enough to be willing to do anything to get there,
regardless of and in spite of all the obstacles, in spite of all the hurdles,
in spite of all the doubts that get in and the stress and the pain, you’ve
got to keep going forward.
CONNORS: Is it necessary to have the mind frame to reach extreme goals
that you are either going to achieve the goals or die? Because that
seems to be the common characteristic for many people, such as Navy
SEALs, who achieve extreme success. It’s tough for somebody to sustain
that type of mind frame, but is that the type of mind frame it takes
to get there?
MACHOWICZ: Well, it makes it very binary. You’re either going forward
and accomplishing or you’re not. It’s very clear under pressure, under
stress, under doubt, under hesitation, under pain, under intense fear, to
make that clear decision. You’re either going forward toward it, or you’re
not. It gets all the excuses out of there. I’mtelling you: quitting is very reasonable.
I can have amillion reasons to quit. But can you find the one reason
to keep going forward? And literally, by saying, “Well, I’m going to keep
going until I die.”As long as you’re still breathing, as long as you have a single
pulse in your body, you can still go forward. I think it justmakes it very
easy to distinguishwhether you’re going forward or you’re not.
Under stress and pressure, you think about the doubt. . . and it’s just self
doubt. I think everybody has self doubt. Everybody has those things that
The Mind 125
occasionally creep in. I don’t care how strong
you are. You’ve still got to be able to go one
step further. And as long as you can breathe,
you can still go one step further. You’re not
dead. And so I live by the axiom, “Not dead.
Can’t quit.”
“On the back of this picturewas a quote that said, ‘Aman can only be defeated
in two ways. . . if he gives up, or if he dies.’ “
I got a quote that really droveme forwardwhen Iwas trying to get ready
for the SEAL team and getting ready for BUD/S. It’s a six month course
and people get badly injured. We had four broken necks, broken legs,
and broken arms in the class. It’s a severe, intense course.And they have
this thing everybody knows about called HellWeek in which 80% of the
participants fail. . . I think we had a class of about 140 people and eventually
we finished with 23 or 24 people graduating. That’s a significant
drop off, especially considering the screening process you had to go
through just to qualify for the class. I was like 150 lb. soaking wet at 6 ft.
I was desperate to have some kind of advantage. Some kind of thing that
would give me an edge. When it was going bad, I needed something to
keep me going forward.
I was fortunate to have a friend whose brother had made it through
SEAL camp. I didn’t know the guy personally, but what happened was
he sent me a picture. On the picture was just his platoon jumping out of
an airplane. It gave me a visual representation of what I wanted to be
able to accomplish. Butmore importantly,when I turned the picture over,
there was a quote. On the back of this picture was a quote that said, “ A
man can only be defeated in two ways: if he gives up, or if he dies.” That
126 Chapter 14
“And so I live
by the axiom,
‘Not dead.
Can’t quit.’ ”
radically shifted where I was ever going to come from that day to the
day I die. Aman can only be defeated in two ways — he gives up or he
dies. I carried that quote withme until the ink disappeared off that piece
of paper.
CONNORS: Great mind frame.
Your means of execution to achieve your goals is centered around a
phrase you coined: “targets, weapons,movement.” You choose your target,
which is basicallywhat you are trying to accomplish. This targetwill
dictatewhatweapons youwill use to achieve the target.And yourmovementwill
be based upon theweapons youwill be using. I knowthis concept
is new for many people who are reading this for the first time, so
let’s walk through it.
MACHOWICZ: Yeah. I created this thing called the play dynamic for combat.
Basically, it’s: Targets dictate the weapons. Weapons dictate movement.
As long as you are very clear on what your target is, you don’t
even have to think, and weapons will show up. You don’t have to think
and the appropriate movement will show up. That way you see the
things that matter vs. all the things that don’t. That’s what we’re competing
for on a second-by-second basis, especially under stress and pressure.
You’re competing with all the information that doesn’t matter vs.
the specific information that does.And what happens ismost people fixate
on the minutiae that don’t matter vs. the one laser point that will
drive them to the thing they want to accomplish.
CONNORS: The target applies to anything in life. For the Navy SEALs,
you guys went quickly into a foreign country to execute a mission.
That mission became your target. That’s all that mattered. But that
The Mind 127
same focus applies to everything in life. I recently read an article by a professor
from Harvard Business School. His research found that there is no
formula to business greatness. There are, however, themes, and the number
one themewas a clearmission. So essentially, the peoplewho achieved
greatness in their businesses had a clear mission. They had a clear target.
Andwhen it comes down to trading, it is the same thing.Aclear target can
be wanting to earn $1 million a year, or wanting to become the #1 hedge
fundmanager in the world. That becomes a clear target.
MACHOWICZ: Yes, for sure. You just talked about big targets. I also categorize
targets as primary and secondary. . . once you get a target that
big, I call it the mission. Inside of that mission, there have to be incremental
targets. In other words, there is a target before the next target. I
call that target the primary target which will, if you hit it and knock it
down, set up the secondary target.
CONNORS: Give us some examples. Let’s say we know what the ultimate
target is, what the mission is. What are examples of the primary targets
here within this mission?
MACHOWICZ: In a SEAL team context, what is our mission? Let’s say,
we’re supposed to do a kidnap, what they call a body snatch. In other
words, we need to collect the general.We go to grab a specific person because
that person has intelligence, and we need to capture that person
alive. That is the mission. There can then be literally a hundred or two
hundred different targets inside that mission. Now all that matters is accomplishing
themission, but before you can accomplish themission, you
have to do planning. Youmake a target of setting up a good plan. In other
words, creating a time, a very specific time frame where we’ve got to
have a good plan by this time. Period. The end. Now that’s the target.
128 Chapter 14
Now you start to break up little things. Ultimately, inside of a mission
you have insertion — you could be jumping out of an airplane or coming
in by a boat or being inserted via submarine. Then you have infiltration
— the process of getting to the target, the main objective. And then
you have the actions you do, what they call actions on the objective.
What specifically are you going to do on the objective? Then you have to
leave the objective and exfiltrate, in other words get out of that dangerous
territory now that you’ve told everybody in the world that you’re
probably in that town. . .
CONNORS: So are these all targets on the way?
MACHOWICZ: Yes, because if I started focusing on exfiltration before I actually
got the guy, what are the odds of me being able to get the guy, or
to actually infiltrate?
CONNORS: It’s one step at a time.
MACHOWICZ: You’ve got it.
CONNORS: Let’s talk about this in trading terms then. Your first target
would be to identify the setup. Then it would be to properly get into that
setup. Then it’s to properly put in your exit strategy. You’re going one
step at a time. You’re not thinking about losing money or how you’re
going to spend the money or whether or not this is your third win in a
row. You’re not jumping ahead four steps — your total focus is on simply
executing the next step.
MACHOWICZ: Exactly. Which helps you stay focused on the main target.
The Mind 129
CONNORS: And it takes the chaos out of the situation.
MACHOWICZ: Exactly! In other words, thoughts or feelings or things that
don’t belong get thrown by the wayside and only what is essential to accomplishing
your overall mission is kept in the mix.
CONNORS: So targets dictate weapons; weapons dictate movement. We’ve
talked about the targets, let’s talk aboutweapons.Howdoes this allwork?
MACHOWICZ: Really, when we talk about weapons, I use it as a physical
metaphor because usually I try to teach it through a physical metaphor. I
want you to developweapons that easily knock down the targetwithout you
getting hurt.And that’s really important, for example, when you talk about
using stops in your trading.Minimizing losses is one of the steps in helping
you hit your target and one of theweapons you use to do this is to use stops.
What you’re trying to do is use specificweapons tomaximize a profit ormaximize
an incomewithout putting yourself inmajor jeopardy.
CONNORS: Go further. . .
MACHOWICZ: The weapons are. . . let’s call it a skill set. The weapons
could be skills, they could be strategies. They could be actual tools. They
could be the technology you are using. It depends on how you’re looking
at it. What your target is. Again, it really depends on what your target
is. But most likely it’s skills, or equipment, gear. . . whatever it is that
helps you knock down the target. And movement is simply the act of
making the weapon hit the target.
The longer it takes for you to pull the trigger. . . themore that doubt, hesitation,
pain and fear will creep in. . .
130 Chapter 14
CONNORS: I see this a lot where traders will not pull the trigger on a trade
. . . they have a movement problem. They have everything put together,
they knowthey’re supposed to take the trade, they knowwhere the entry
is, and then when it comes time to pull the trigger, they won’t do it.
That’s the movement you’re talking about. They become paralyzed.
MACHOWICZ:Well, that’s what happens. Somewhere in this chain of “targets
dictate weapons, weapons dictate movement,” someplace between
target and weapon, the whole world can fit in there. When I say the
whole world I mean your whole world of doubt, second-guessing, hesitation,
fear, the unknown.And the longer it takes for you to pull the trigger
– like you said – the more that doubt, second-guessing, hesitation,
pain and fear creep in to that mechanism. . .
CONNORS: How do you get them to not creep in?
MACHOWICZ: Go back to the target! Focus only on this one thing. Just ask
yourself, “What is the target?What is the target?” This incredibly reduces
the chaos and brings everything back into focus.
CONNORS: Always focus on the target.
MACHOWICZ: Yes. And the second half of this is having guts.
What I like to do — basically it’s a really simple question. I do this
thing called the “gut check.” I was really trying to find out what it was
going to take for me to be able to just really handle BUD/S and become
a SEAL. What it was going to take for me? Was it going to be
that the kind of shorts I wore would reduce chafing?Would it be some
kind of socks I wore to reduce some of the chafing or maybe try and
keep my feet warm? Was it going to be some kind of supplement that
The Mind 131
was going to help me? It turned out that all that stuff was garbage.
That didn’t matter. The one thing that kept coming back to me when I
would check in, trying to find out what that secret was, was you have
to have guts. You’ve just got to have guts. I got the experience of learning
what guts were by sticking through to the end. I got that visceral
feeling of what “guts” was. So what I wanted to do was develop a very
simple way so that you could get a gut check. If you could answer yes
to these three questions, you have the guts you need to take on anything
in life.
CONNORS: What are those three questions?
MACHOWICZ: The first question is: Are you willing to make a choice?
Now, a lot of people make choices every day. They choose to watch TV,
or to do something else, or they choose to be nice to somebody or they
choose not to be nice to somebody. But rarely do theymake a choice that
would substantially improve the quality of their lives. I’mwilling to give
the benefit of the doubt to the person willing to play the game, and yes,
a lot of people are willing tomake choices. But when we come to the second
question, we start losing people.
We probably lose half the people on the second question: Do you have
the courage to start?
Alot of people talk the talk, but when it comes to walking the walk, they
disappear. Really, that’s it. Are you willing to step up and show up and
get the work done?
CONNORS: Why do you think half the people stop?
132 Chapter 14
MACHOWICZ: I think people are afraid.
CONNORS: Why?
MACHOWICZ:Why? Number one, I think people don't think they're good
enough, for the most part. People think there's something inherently
wrong with themselves.
CONNORS: Self doubt.
MACHOWICZ: Yes, they just don't feel they're worthy. They're afraid to
even try. They're so sure they're going to fail. They're so sure they're
going to get screwed. They're so sure it's going to fall apart that they refuse
to even show up in the first place.
CONNORS: How do you overcome that?
MACHOWICZ: How? Recognize you don't even know what's going to
happen. You do not know from second to second what is going to happen
in your life. You've got an idea. You think you know. But the reality
is what's going to happen ten seconds from now you really don't
know. What's going to happen an hour from now? You really don't
know. A year from now? You really don't know. That's the state, that's
the condition of our lives.
CONNORS: So if you don't try, you do knowthat you're not going to succeed.
MACHOWICZ: But you knowwhat?You didn't even have an opportunity. The
mind doesn'twant to even go there. Itwill just assume that it knows that you
can't succeed, so it validates the fact that, guesswhat? "I knoweverything."
The Mind 133
CONNORS: How do you trip the mind
up to make it believe it will succeed?
MACHOWICZ: I don't think you have to
trip the mind up. I mean you can do
that. You can short-circuit that
process. You can.
CONNORS: And the third question is...
MACHOWICZ: Do you have the guts to
finish? Do you have the guts to succeed
at the mission you set out to
achieve? Do you know what the only
common characteristic there is
amongst the thousands of people
who haven't made it through Hell
Week?
CONNORS: What’s that?
MACHOWICZ: They quit.
CONNORS: The things that you're teaching here are not just appropriate for
Navy SEALs, they are appropriate for any walk of life, no matter what
you're doing.
MACHOWICZ: That's absolutely correct.
134 Chapter 14
“When I look
at the guys I’ve
worked with
that have been
successful,
the one thing
I see consistently
is the commitment
to finish. Yes, they
were willing to
make a choice,
they had the courage
to start, but the
thing that made
the difference,
was the commitment
to finish no
matter what.”
CONNORS: You've obviously been around extremely successful achievement-
oriented peoplewho have achieved extreme levels of success in their
field, including your teammates in the SEALs. I've read that fromapplication
time to the finish of BUD/Sonly one in 6000 get through the process. So
these are peoplewho are executing at a level in life beyondwhatmost people
can comprehend.You alsowork directlywith individualswho are professional
athletes, top names in the entertainment industry and some
very successful businessmen. If you could state a single characteristic, a
common theme, what would it be for their success?
MACHOWICZ: Avery clear target and perseverance.
When I look at the guys I've worked with that have been successful, the
one thing I see consistently is the commitment to finish. Yes, they were
willing tomake a choice, they had the courage to start, but the thing that
made the difference,was the commitment to finish nomatterwhat. Even
if they were going to finish dead last, they were going to finish. I think
that's the big thing. People do not finish what they start. A lot of people
will start things but never see it through to the end.
CONNORS: These guys pick a target and are always moving forward to
that target. Is that correct?
MACHOWICZ: Absolutely. If you're at least going forward to the target,
you're always moving forward in your world. And that's the most important
thing. You have one life. You've got to play it full out. If you play
it half-assed, if you play it partially, I'm telling you, on your deathbed,
you'll be wondering why you ever were born.
The Mind 135
CONNORS: Going back to the SEALs, had that become the mind frame?
You'd be killed; you'd be out immediately...
MACHOWICZ: Oh yeah, I mean what happens is -- Vince Lombardi had
a great quote, "Fatigue makes cowards of us all." Literally, what happens
with BUD/S, you will have work that will have mentally and physically
fatigued you to the point where you only have to blink for a
second, when you're on your third or fourth day of Hell Week, and
you're freezing cold and you're miserable and you just saw three other
people quit. You only have to have one moment... it only takes you 30
seconds to quit, and you've destroyed all that time that you've put in.
You lose sight of the target and it is over.
One of the things I did early during Hell Week was I would say, "Well,
I made it through one evolution, I can make it through one more. I
made it through two. I can make it through one more. I made it through
three, I can make it through one more. If I made it through four evolutions,
I can make it through one more. If I made it through four, I could
probably do another four. If I did eight, I could probably do another
eight. Oh, I've got one day down, let me try another day. I got two days
down, I bet I can do one more day. I got three days down. You know
what? I know I can do three more days."
Just let it go.And next thing you know, you start building thismotor ofmomentum,
this engine of momentum that just keeps driving you forward,
keeps driving you forward, keeps driving you forward. Because I'mtelling
you, that conversation is not a conversation you're going away from. That
is a conversation ofmoving forward.Andmoving forward toward a target
that you set for yourself and refuse to quit. People say, "Refuse to lose." I say
136 Chapter 14
"refuse to quit." Recognize the dialogue that leads to quitting and youwon't
have to worry about losing.
CONNORS: Paul "Bear" Bryant's famous quote, "The first time you quit it's
hard, the second time is a little easier and the third time you quit, you
don't even have to think about it."
MACHOWICZ: Perfect.
CONNORS: You talk about this in your book. Act as though it is impossible
to fail.
MACHOWICZ: Act as though it is impossible to fail. If you are doing
these things, if you are clearly on your target, if you are persistent and
committed to finishing and you are really committed to results vs. reason,
you will succeed. Success is not some magic mystery out there. It is
a clear connection to the target.
CONNORS: Let me go back and ask you a question regarding chaos. During
your combat missions, your life was very much on the line. If something
goes wrong - you're dead. How do you eliminate the stress of that
knowledge?
MACHOWICZ: Stay focused only on the target, that's how!
CONNORS:And they teach you that in the SEALs? They teach you howto...
MACHOWICZ: It's not even "teach," it's just "stay focused." What is the
target? You may have to ask yourself that moment to moment. What
The Mind 137
do I have to do now? What's the target now? This moment, this moment,
this moment...
Always come back to the target. I can't stress that strongly enough. I
don't care what's happening... the universe could be falling apart
around you. As long as you keep going, "What's the target? What do I
have to do right now? What's the target right this second?" The results
will take care of themselves. And to the outside world it will look like
nothing ever phases you.
CONNORS: Summarize your message to us.
MACHOWICZ: Intense focus on hitting the target and never quitting. It
worked forme inmy 10 years with the Navy SEALs, it works for the professional
athletes I work with and it works for the other very successful
people I work with. Live with the mind frame, "Not dead. Can't quit."
CONNORS: Thank you, Richard. This is a great way to end.

"after all, we are in a bull market."

What do we do now? Things look good and markets are banging new highs but there is always something around the corner. The market needs a breather, it needs to breathe in and breathe out, now it's very overbought and best thing to do is manage open positions and wait for a pullback for new set ups and entries. As always one day at a time.

Barron's magazine cover; Dow 16,000!

this chart is from John Hussman, showing a new one and two previous Barron covers and market action, timing is not perfect, nothing is, but gives us a clue of what it could be

follow up: UNG

don't get scared out but be aware of the bigger time frame and what we are doing here, have a fail-safe stop at break even on the remaining position, just in case

“I look for conditions of disequilibrium. They send out certain signals that activate me. So my decisions are really made using a combination of theory and instinct. If you like, you may call it intuition.”
~ George Soros

I would say, market analysis, as many have observed, is an art, not a science.
Action, this is where the rubber hits the road. In the end, however, the "hidden ingredient" for market success is the trader's own instincts or intuition.

intraday 5min. view of SPY's price action

someone was playing games today

Take things as they are. Punch when you have to punch. Kick when you have to kick.
Bruce Lee

follow up: UNG

We talked about this break out and we are getting it today. What do we need after a b/o ? We will look for a follow through, that's the key now, follow through.
May the trend be with you ~ and you with it.

S&P 500 cash

One day at a time, today we got an inside day and can go ether way, and trading back at the top of the range, the line of least resistance continues to be upward.

What to do when in a range?  As the trend rider, there's not much to do when a market is stuck in a range. Manage your open positions and just sit on your hands. If it rallies out of that range-and sticks, then you look to buy. If it sells off out of that range and continues lower, then you look to short. It's that simple. I used the word simple and not easy. If it were easy, everybody would be doing it.

Trading & Ego, The Ultimate Chess Game

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chzqWI346DI&feature=youtu.be

How much further could gold fall?

                                          The truth is that no-one knows.

The 1970s can offer insights. The gold price from 1974-1976 corrected 47% before it rose 8x to peak at US$887/oz in 1980. Extraordinarily, the price increased 4x in the 13 months before the peak.

commitment is the game and fulfillment is the aim

"I would sometimes think that maybe I ought to stop trading because it was very painful to keep losing. In 'Fiddler on the Roof,' there is a scene where the lead looks up and talks to God. I would look up and say, 'Am I really that stupid?' And I seemed to hear a clear answer saying, 'No, you are not stupid. You just have to keep at it.' So I did."

- Michael Marcus

Market Wizard, is noted for turning $30,000 into $80 million. If even he started out taking enough lumps to generate serious self-doubt, how can traders learning in today's environment expect less of a persistence breakthrough challenge?

the line of least resistance is upward

for now  ~ one day at a time

follow up; UNG and SMH trades

now needs a break out and a follow through

stopped out at break even on a half position after taking 1R profit on the first half

advance through trial and error

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; and if it is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.
~Marcus Aurelius

just a reminder, QE

"As more and more money gets printed, currencies will inevitably devalue and hard assets including stocks will rise. Should inflation start to run rampant, stock markets, as history has shown, could start to rise in a parabolic manner. One would hope central banks would slow QE to prevent this from happening, as the aftermath of such a stock market bubble is always catastrophic."

follow up on one long UNG, and one short SMH

refer to previous posts regarding real time, actionable comments

a trader is a person who earns what he gets...

"The symbol of all relationships among such men, the moral symbol of respect for human beings, is the trader. We, who live by values, not by loot are traders, both in manner and spirit. A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. A trader does not ask to be paid for his failures, nor does he ask to be loved for his flaws. A trader does not squander his body as fodder, or his soul as alms. Just as he does not give his work except in trade for material values, so he does not give the values of his spirit-his love, his friendship, his esteem-except in payment and in trade for human virtue, in payment for his own selfish pleasure, which he receives from men he can respect."
~from Atlas Shrugged

SMH follow up

fail-safe @ 35.29

SMH- s

@34.79

market is now at the top of a 13 year "secular" bear range

a picture is worth a million dollars

“bandwagon” theory

Traders often hear about “tulip mania,” the “South Sea bubble” and other similar events where traders have followed the crowd to send prices to extreme levels. You might add the technology dot.com bubble of the late 1990s or the more recent housing bubble to the list of those events where traders got carried away with higher and higher prices. Everyone wanted to be part of the action – the “crowd psychology” or “bandwagon” theory. The same type of crowd response applies to price action on a smaller scale, too. For example, when a market is coming up from a basing area on the charts, “smart money” is responsible for the majority of the initial buying. As people jump on board, we see the bandwagon effect, and that bandwagon pushes prices up. Volume tends to surge at its peak, certainly on the buy side, during the markup phase in the middle. Later, toward the end of the trend, smart money is not doing the buying; somebody else is. The smart money is doing the selling. The market tops by rolling over or sometimes with a spike top. We can see the crowd impact expressed in price and in volume. Just think about what happens among professional traders when the stock market goes up even when the fundamentals don’t provide much support for such a move. Prices often rise because institutional money managers feel pressured to follow the crowd and chase performance. How can they explain why their results are below the industry benchmarks if they don’t go with the crowd and buy the stocks everyone else has in their portfolios? That rationale alone can drive markets higher than they “should” go.

trend trading, momentum, swing, price action, trading futures & equities

"If you are ready to give up everything else - to study the whole history and background of the market ... as a medical student studies anatomy. If you can do all that, and, in addition, you have the cool nerves of a gambler, the sixth sense of a kind of clairvoyant, and the courage of a lion, you have a ghost of a chance." 
---Bernard Baruch

I think that expertise is the connection between knowing and doing.

"Some degree of derivative learning is necessary - BUT - much learning does not teach understanding. Only through experience and extensive practice and application will understanding and expertise arise."

-Heraclitus, 475 BC

New trader to Master Trader:

 "Sir, what is the secret of your success"? "Two words."

"And, sir, what are they?" "Right decisions."

"And how do you make the right decisions." "One word."

"And, sir, what is that one word?" "Experience."

"And, sir, how do you get experience?" "Two words."

"And, sir, what are those two words?" "Wrong decisions."

S&P 500 cash market analysis and outlook

the line of least resistance is upward and this pullback is going to present us with a new menu with new low risk setups, manage open positions and be patient with initiating new ones, and for you that want to short now, plain and simple don't, if the market is going to tank there is going to be plenty of time to get on board, read the post below and don't predict, but follow your proven game plan

“Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.”

~Lao Tzu

Are you prepared ?

"Being prepared, on a few occasions in a lifetime, to act promptly in scale in doing some simple and logical thing will often dramatically improve the financial results of that lifetime. A few major opportunities, clearly recognisable as such, will usually come to one who continuously searches and waits, with a curious mind, loving diagnosis involving multiple variables. And then all that is required is a willingness to bet heavily when the odds are extremely favourable, using resources available as a result of prudence and patience in the past."

- Charlie Munger

UNG - b - now

above weekly view and below daily charts

higher low, buyable gap ( above 50 sma ), and now a breakout through last swing high, trend changes at this point on daily time frame, now looking for follow through and for the price to accelerate higher, and then to have an orderly pullback


<a href="http://www.hyipdata.com">http://www.hyipdata.com</a>

“If you realize that all things change, there is nothing you will try to hold on to. If you are not afraid of dying, there is nothing you cannot achieve.”

~ Lao Tzu

as long as we're hitting new highs upward trend continues

at this time the trend is up and we don't fight the trend, if you have some shorts on keep the stops tight

What to do now? Wait for a pullback, if we get it, to initiate new long positions and wait for new shorts for now as it doesn't pay to fight the trend.

<a href="http://www.hyipdata.com">http://www.hyipdata.com</a>

sitting on your hands

waiting looks as the best action right now, hopefully next several days of price action will resolve situation and give us a new trend and new opportunities, make sure you wait for follow through ~ read below post, the art of useful waiting

the art of useful waiting

"In chess we have the obligation to move; there is no option to skip a turn if you can't identify a direction that suits you. One of the great challenges of the game is how to make progress when there are no obvious moves, when action is required, not reaction. The great Polish chess master and wit Tartakower half-joking called this the "nothing to do" phase of the game. In reality, it is here that we find what separates pretenders from contenders.

"The obligation to move can be a burden to a player without strategic vision. Unable to form a plan when there isn't an immediate crisis, he is likely to try to precipitate a crisis himself and usually ends up damaging his own position. We learned from Petrosian that vigilant inaction is a viable strategy in chess, but the art of useful waiting takes consummate skill. What exactly do you do when there is nothing to do?

"We call these phases "positional play" because our goal is to impose our position. You must avoid creating weaknesses, find small ways to improve your pieces, and think small -- but never stop thinking. One tends to get lazy in quiet positions, which is why positional masters such as Karpov and Petrosian were so deadly. They were always alert and were happy to go long stretches without any real action on the board if it meant gaining a tiny advantage, and then another. Eventually their opponents would find themselves without any good moves at all, as if they were standing on quicksand.

In life there is no such obligation to move. If you can't find a useful plan, you can watch television, stick with business as usual, and believe that no news is good news. Human beings are brilliantly creative at finding ways to pass time in nonconstructive ways. At these times, a true strategist shines by finding the means to make progress, to strengthen his position and prepare for the inevitable conflict. And conflict, we cannot forget, is inevitable.

- Garry Kasparov, How Life Imitates Chess

Not a day goes by that a trader doesn't have to choose, between what he wants and what he's afraid to lose.

There is no wrong way to trade, or to live. There are only results.

What do we do now? As The Trend Rider you took some profits during the last upward move and for any positions left you have to honour your stops which will make sure you don't give anything back, just in case.

train yourself to let go of everything you fear to lose

ENJOY WISDOM video

for traders, one way to achieve that state, "no fear" state of mind is to trade at the size where "this trade" doesn't matter, this is a game of probabilities and your job is not to win every trade but to be ahead over series of trades

trading

It's not easy, but at times; The best time to go long is when you cover your shorts, and the best time to go short is when you sell your longs.

The greatest traders are scientists and artists.

"After a certain high level of technical skill is achieved, science and art tend to coalesce in aesthetics, plasticity, and form. The greatest scientists are artists as well."

- Albert Einstein

good advice for traders and everyone else by Siddhārtha Gautama

"Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored by many. Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your religious books. Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders. Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations. But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with reason, and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all, then accept it and live up to it."

- Siddhārtha Gautama (Buddha)

trade from Dec. 20th: POT

                                   keep stop @ 41.90 ~ Don't Be Scared To Take Profits

good traders have a special talent...

“Good traders have a special talent for trading just as good musicians and good athletes have talents for their fields. Great traders are ones who are absorbed by the talent. They don't have the talent — the talent has them.”
~ Ed Seykota

follow up: POT

                                   new stop is now @ 41.89

Remember to continue to take things one day at a time, practice proper money and position management, and honour your stops.

follow up: POT

                                          looks like another leg up under development