Remember it takes volume to move stocks, so start getting to know your stock's volume behavior and then how it reacts to spikes in volume. You can see these spikes on any chart. Volume is the key to your stock's movement up or down.
trading
Tuesday 31 May 2011
Friday 27 May 2011
Meditation, a tool for personal optimization.
Meditation is a very effective way of reaching for the truth.
Meditation has been shown to reduce stress and increase focus. It is the simple act of quieting the mind for at least 10/15 minutes. Focus on your breathing to quiet the mind, even though when you focus on your breathing, you may find it difficult to keep thoughts from streaming into your mind. That is okay. Let the thoughts stream, look at them and release them, as some may contain solutions to any challenges going on in your life. Action is being truly observant of your own thoughts, good or bad, looking into the true nature of whatever thoughts may arise, neither tracing the past nor inviting the future, neither allowing any clinging to experiences of joy, nor being overcome by sad situations, in so doing, you reach and remain in the state of great equilibrium. There are number of excellent tapes that produce meditative alpha and theta brain states that can help you in quieting your mind.
"context is everything"
CGW looks like it could move from bullish flag, but we have to keep things in context of the overall market.
When it comes to understanding the price/volume behaviour of stocks, context is everything. Things that work at times don't work at other times, believe me I know this from my personal experience, and that's why is so important to know the market underlying conditions or context. The exercise of comparing the price behaviour of a stock to a chart of the market as represented by a major market index can help you understand a stock's potential strength.
The trend is the basis of all profit.
Harry, a friend of mine has asked me a question:
How do you know where the market is going to go ? Below are my answers to that question.
The best evidence that a market is going to go up is that it's already doing so.
The best evidence that a market is going to go down is that it's already doing so.
Think about it.
Thursday 26 May 2011
Learn from your mistakes.
Back in the early days of IBM, a young worker had made a mistake that lost IBM $1 M in business. She was called in to the President's office and as she walked in said, "Well, I guess you have called me here to fire me." "Fire you?" Mr. Watson replied, "I just spent $1 M on your education!"
So next time you take a big loss in a stock, consider it your tuition, and keep record of it so you don't make the same mistake again.
alerted to the following story…
A young lady confidently walked around the room with a raised glass of water while leading and explaining stress management to an audience. Everyone just knew she was going to ask the oft repeated question, ‘half empty or half full?’ But she fooled them all…
“How heavy is this glass of water?” she inquired with a smile.
Answers called out ranged from 8 oz. to 20 oz.
She replied, “The absolute weight doesn’t matter. It depends on how long I hold it. If I hold it for a minute, that’s not a problem. If I hold it for an hour, I’ll have an ache in my right arm. If I hold it for a day, you’ll have to call an ambulance. In each case it’s the same weight,but the longer I hold it, the heavier it becomes.” She continued, “and that’s the way it is with stress. If we carry our burdens all the time sooner or later, as the burden becomes increasingly heavy, we won’t be able to carry on.”
“As with the glass of water, you have to put it down for a while and rest before holding it again. When we’re refreshed, we can carry on with the burden – holding stress longer and better each time practiced. So, as early in the evening as you can, put all your burdens down. Don’t carry them through the evening and into the night… pick them up tomorrow. Whatever burdens you’re carrying now, let them down for a moment. Relax, pick them up later after you’ve rested. Life is short.”
“How heavy is this glass of water?” she inquired with a smile.
Answers called out ranged from 8 oz. to 20 oz.
She replied, “The absolute weight doesn’t matter. It depends on how long I hold it. If I hold it for a minute, that’s not a problem. If I hold it for an hour, I’ll have an ache in my right arm. If I hold it for a day, you’ll have to call an ambulance. In each case it’s the same weight,but the longer I hold it, the heavier it becomes.” She continued, “and that’s the way it is with stress. If we carry our burdens all the time sooner or later, as the burden becomes increasingly heavy, we won’t be able to carry on.”
“As with the glass of water, you have to put it down for a while and rest before holding it again. When we’re refreshed, we can carry on with the burden – holding stress longer and better each time practiced. So, as early in the evening as you can, put all your burdens down. Don’t carry them through the evening and into the night… pick them up tomorrow. Whatever burdens you’re carrying now, let them down for a moment. Relax, pick them up later after you’ve rested. Life is short.”
Wednesday 25 May 2011
Monday 23 May 2011
Life.
For a long time it had seemed to me that life was about to begin. But there was always some obstacle in the way, something to be gotten through first, some unfinished business, time still to be served, a debt to be paid. Then life would begin. At last it dawned on me that these obstacles were my life.
~ Alfred D Souza
~ Alfred D Souza
Follow up, CGW, support levels were tested and successfully defended today.
observe and learn how to profit
"the most important attribute"
A great trader and a friend of mine once said: “I will tell you I am good at trading. I am good at investing. I am good at making decisions. I am good at admitting mistakes and that’s my best trait. I am really, really good at admitting mistakes. And that’s to me the most important attribute that an investor, that a trader, that somebody who’s trying to make a living matching wits in the market can have is the ability to admit that they are wrong. That trumps all other concerns. Education doesn’t seem to have that much viability to me. It’s the ability to say I’m wrong.”
Friday 20 May 2011
Your primary job as trader is to devise a plan that will get you profits that are large multiples of your initial risk.
I emphasize, as I always do, that one of the keys to successful trading is to have an exit strategy in place before ever entering a position. That enables a trader to get out if he is wrong on direction. The strategy needs to be one that permits profits to run while creating a disciplined unemotional exit that initially is both clear and close to the entry. In that fashion, prediction no longer controls. The successful trader, instead, simply reacts to the price movement. Having a plan that incorporates money management, reward to risk potential and disciplined exit strategy can supply an edge that prediction doesn't. The key, of course, is to learn how to make the profits from the winners significantly exceed the losses from the losers.
Tuesday 17 May 2011
Lower support levels were thoroughly tested and successfully defended today.
At this time there is not much of an edge to be found. In time, that is going to change. But, until that moment we have to stay patient, protect our capital and be prepared for the next move in ether direction.
Inverse correlation.
Friday 13 May 2011
U.S. Dollar Index
Closed above 50 day average price first time in approximately four months.
for more insights on dollar trade see blog 23 April
The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an offer to buy any securities
follow up, Silver
Patience doesn't mean just waiting, it means being able to sit and learn.
Learn whatever you feel you need to learn.
for more insights regarding silver trade see blog 25 April
The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an offer to buy any securities
Tuesday 10 May 2011
Silver's worst four-day drop in over 30 years.
According to historical precedent:
Markets that show this amount of pronounced accumulation followed by sharp liquidation do not completely heal and repair themselves in weeks, but usually months, if not a year or more.
most important is to keep on playing the game
The most important thing you must learn in trading the market is to cut your losses short and never ever take too big a loss. I know this from my personal experience. Keep drawdowns low ( 5%loss needs 5.3%gain for recovery, and 10%loss requires 11.1%gain for recovery, and 30%loss requires 42.9%gain just to get even, think about it ) and keep on playing the game day in and day out. Remember that "position neutral is A position" and if you stay in the game long enough you make lots of money.
Monday 9 May 2011
Managing Risk.
Mark Minervini suggests those steps to reduce risk.
10 Steps to Take to Reduce Portfolio Risk
1. Get off margin immediately
2. Raise at least 25-50% cash
3. If you choose to trade, take smaller than normal position sizes
4. Reduce overexposure in any one industry group and diversify more broadly
5. Reduce exposure to high beta stocks
6. Avoid laggard stocks (even if they look cheap)
7. Nail down profits when you have them (be less greedy)
8. Tighten up your stop-losses (be less forgiving)
9. Sell all stocks that break down in price (especially if they can’t rally)
10.Upgrade in quality and reduce exposure to low priced stocks
Sunday 8 May 2011
ung
\
The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an offer to buy any securities
Wednesday 4 May 2011
UNG now.
We are close to our break even stop 11.79, and emotions are rising. Remember, we can always buy it back, and as always,
the rule # 1 is "do not lose money"
it goes on the watch list for now
The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an offer to buy any securities
Tuesday 3 May 2011
After two down days to start the month, watch for this price pattern.
Tuesday, May 3rd, 2011 at 6:55pm (Rennie Yang from Markettells.com)
The S&P500 has kicked off the month of May with two consecutive lower closes, the first string of back-to-back
down days to start the month since last July. An effective way to trade early month weakness is to simply wait for
the market to recoup that loss. If it can, at any point before the end of the month, it invariably leads to a tradable
rally. The table below illustrates this point. The first date shown is the second session of the month when the S&P
closed lower for the second day in a row. The second date is when the S&P closed back above the previous month’s
settlement and the number of sessions elapsed. For instance, using the most recent signal, the S&P closed lower
two consecutive sessions at the start of the month on 7/2/10. Two sessions later, on 7/7/10, the S&P erased that
loss by closing above the prior month’s close. That’s the trigger date, and you can see the S&P rose 3.3% over the
next five sessions…
SPX Starts Month w/ Two Down Days, Before End of Month S&P Closes > Prev Month’s Settlement
07/02/10… 07/07/10 (2)… S&P500 +3.3% one week later
10/02/09… 10/07/09 (3)… S&P500 +3.3% one week later
09/02/09… 09/08/09 (3)… S&P500 +2.7% one week later
03/03/09… 03/12/09 (7)… S&P500 +4.4% one week later
08/04/08… 08/05/08 (1)… S&P500 +0.4% one week later
06/03/08… 06/05/08 (2)… S&P500 -4.6% one week later (*)
12/04/07… 12/05/07 (1)… S&P500 +0.1% one week later
03/02/07… 03/20/07 (12)… S&P500 +1.3% one week later
11/02/06… 11/06/06 (2)… S&P500 +0.3% one week later
03/04/03… 03/17/03 (9)… S&P500 +0.2% one week later
08/02/02… 08/14/02 (8)… S&P500 +3.2% one week later
04/03/01… 04/10/01 (5)… S&P500 +6.0% one week later
11/02/99… 11/05/99 (3)… S&P500 +1.9% one week later
08/03/99… 08/16/99 (9)… S&P500 +2.2% one week later
03/02/99… 03/04/99 (2)… S&P500 +4.1% one week later
06/03/97… 06/06/97 (3)… S&P500 +4.1% one week later
03/02/95… 03/10/95 (6)… S&P500 +1.2% one week later
10/04/94… 10/11/94 (5)… S&P500 +0.4% one week later
01/05/93… 01/14/93 (7)… S&P500 -0.1% one week later
12/02/92… 12/04/92 (2)… S&P500 +0.4% one week later
10/02/92… 10/26/92 (16)… S&P500 +1.1% one week later
11/04/91… 11/07/91 (3)… S&P500 +0.9% one week later
01/03/91… 01/18/91 (11)… S&P500 +1.2% one week later
05/02/89… 05/12/89 (8)… S&P500 +2.4% one week later
02/02/89… 02/07/89 (3)… S&P500 -2.6% one week later (*)
12/02/88… 12/05/88 (1)… S&P500 +0.6% one week later
10/04/88… 10/06/88 (2)… S&P500 +1.0% one week later
08/04/87… 08/06/87 (2)… S&P500 +3.9% one week later
06/02/87… 06/03/87 (1)… S&P500 +1.4% one week later
05/02/86… 05/05/86 (1)… S&P500 -0.1% one week later
The S&P was higher one week later in 26 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 87% of the time, significantly above the
57% random chance for a higher S&P one week later. Average gain was 2%. This signal will be triggered anytime
in the month of May on an SPX close above 1363.61.
"leaving the consolidation"
We are approx. an hour into the trading day and mcp volume is around 400% higher than yesterday at the same time,
looks like it wants to continue upwards. If the volume crosses 6.4mil. shares today we'll have a "pivot buy point".
Watch the overall market, there is distribution among leaders today. Keep your stops in place and don't let profits disappear and/or losses ride. Day-By-Day follow your plan.
The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an offer to buy any securities
Monday 2 May 2011
Reversal day makes higher high and closes below today's open and yesterday's close.
Looks like a danger signal to me. Not all danger signals are correct, no rules are 100% right, but if you pay attention to them consistently, you will profit in the long run.
" responsibility; ability to respond "
"it is human emotion that always gets in the way of intelligence"
The ability to respond at the right moment, regardless if the trade is going well, not so well, or awful at that moment, is the traders edge and must be a part of the plan. That’s what trading is all about. It is about the ability to make a decision.
The only way that I know of, that works for me, is to be moderate. When my positions are moderate I am emotionally detached, patient, acting in my best interest following my plan.
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