Buying the invasion worked wonders in the past. Will it be different this time?

Volatile days for commodity investors will be ahead. The financial atomic bomb in form of a Russian exclusion from SWIFT could cause additional trouble. The odds are high that Russia would stop oil, gas and wheat exports into the EU as soon as the SWIFT exclusion would be ratified. As Russia is the single most important supplier for the EU - this could lead, once again, to lots of trouble for energy and grain prices.

"On Ukraine, Russia, NATO, and WW 3"

Putin follows a Stalinesque ideology given his upbringing. He views the fall of the USSR as the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century." Putin wants Russia to be the global dominant force with the annexation that only begins with Ukraine.

Ukraine has been a legitimate country since 1991 when the USSR fell as recognized in the Lisbon Protocol along with the 1991 law "On Legal Succession of Ukraine". Russia has no entitlement over Ukraine. If history is any guide, Chamberlain's appeasement towards Hitler allowed him to annex the Sudetenland led to WW 2. Such authoritarian aggressors cannot be appeased.

At present, the US, EU, and UK are appeasing Putin by limiting the sanctions. With record debt, soaring inflation, and hampered GDPs, the concerns of major allies about the cost of energy and fuel remain high leaving many sanctions against Russia off the table. Such nations continue to buy from Russia as to them, the price of blood of innocents is less important than euros or points at the polls. At the very least, barring Russia from SWIFT would be a good move yet has yet to happen.

No NATO country can risk a casualty caused by Russia as this would trigger NATO's Article 5 in which all NATO allies jointly enter into a war which could lead to WW 3. So Ukraine stands on its own with Putin already having calculated ways to work around sanctions; he now favors bitcoin. Russia’s own advance preparation, in particular its build up of more than $600 billion in international reserves, will also help it weather the sanctions. Putin warned: “The United States will not be left out, with its ordinary citizens feeling the consequences of the price increase in full.” Putin has said that while the US may have more global power, Russia has nuclear weapons.

Even if Russia ends its attempts to annex Ukraine, they are likely to leave a Vichy government and a permanent military presence in the country to use that as leverage against NATO. If the sanctions imposed on Russia are ineffective, then no tool outside war will compel them to slow down their aggression given Putin's mindset. Georgia and other countries are at risk.

The only fundamental factor that really matters in the stocks market is "The Law of Supply and Demand".

 RTY - 100 w-ma@1942

"War, Power, Diversion and Inflation"

"Never change things by fighting the existing reality.........to change something build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete."

Food for thought.

"~2/3 of stocks underperform the index, ~50% have no ROR, ~25% go to zero. It’s these big outliers that really make [all] the performance. The power law of investing, 5-10% of stocks generate all the returns."

'Magazine covers often indicate completion of discount.'

"When the ride ends"

 

Gold - eating the tail

 gap up today , over $18

"As per Goldman Sacks, short sales increased at fastest rate in more than 10 years during last five weeks."

                         Professional speculators are reloading bets against stock market.

"5-10 year time horizon"?

Averaging down on her 11 mil. share debacle, the media felt safe betting on SKLZ because the stock was down 75% and Cathie was still bullish based on fundamentals.

How much lower can it go? Answer: 67% MORE before she sold it. All in less than 6 mos.

Good morning.