When it comes to trading “if you don’t know who you are, then what you know doesn’t matter."

"The Market As A Guide"

Interestingly, as we have observed a number of times, even though major averages may move higher, it does not mean any new high quality names become actionable. Always keep that in mind when running your own screens and wondering why you might not see any entry points in your favorite stocks. Patience is always essential, thus best not to force your portfolio into stocks especially if the entry points are not there. 

"One Picture Worth Ten Thousand Words"

Gold Funnymentals

Highlights

"Central banks added 651.5t to official gold reserves in 2018, the second highest yearly total on record. Net purchases jumped to their highest since the end of US dollar convertibility into gold in 1971, as a greater pool of central banks turned to gold as a diversified.

Annual jewellery demand was virtually unmoved: down just 1t from 2017. Gains in China, the US and Russia broadly offset sharp losses in the Middle East. Indian demand was stable at 598t (-4t).  

ETFs and similar products saw annual inflows of 68.9t down from 206.4t in 2017. Stock market volatility and signs of faltering economic growth in key markets fuelled a global Q4 recovery, but Europe was the only region to see net growth over the year. 

Retail investment in gold bars and coins posted annual growth of 4%. Coin demand surged to reach a five-year high of 236.4t, the second highest on record. Demand for gold bars held steady at 781.6t, the fifth year in succession of holding in a firm 780-800t range.

2018 saw marginal gains in the volume of gold used in technology, crimped by Q4 slowdown. After healthy gains during Q1-Q3, a combination of slowing smartphone sales, the trade war and mounting uncertainty over global economic growth, contributed to a 5% decline in Q4." 

Recap April 22

The wind is slowing down. "Stocks erased early losses to finish little changed in very light trading, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF saw just 38 million shares change hands, the lowest volume session since August and less than half of the one-year average daily turnover of 86 million shares.   A strong day for oil headlined the commodity action, with WTI crude approaching $66 a barrel on news the Trump administration will reportedly end sanctions waivers for Iranian exports.  Treasurys sold off, with the 10-year yield rising three basis points to 2.58%, and the VIX gave back most of its early gains to finish below 12.5."

Enjoy your family and friends. Have a great long weekend.

                                              The trend is still up, no hedges on.

Sometimes you just have to take profits. Sold most of the stocks into strength.

Recap April 12. ~ No worries.

                                           The trend is still up, no hedges on.

“Canada has not had a credit cycle in a few decades and I don’t think there’s a Canadian bank CEO that knows what a credit cycle really looks like"

“U.S. hedge funds from time to time have appeared in this country over the last 10 years, with the same hypothesis of shorting Canadian banks, and it hasn’t worked out very well for them,” Brian Porter, CEO of the Bank of Nova Scotia, said yesterday. “There are always going to be those that take an opposing view, and we’ll prove them wrong over the long term.” 

Gabriel Dechaine, banking analyst at the National Bank of Canada, likewise came to his industry’s defense in a note today: “A trend that is making us believe that sector sentiment is becoming too bearish is the re-emergence of a vocal ‘short Canada’ investment crowd.” Dechaine writes that a Stanley Cup victory for the woebegone Toronto Maple Leafs (last title, 1967) is more likely than a jump in loan losses.

One well-known investor is publicly taking the challenge: Steve Eisman, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman and a protagonist in Michael Lewis’ The Big Short. “Canada has not had a credit cycle in a few decades and I don’t think there’s a Canadian bank CEO that knows what a credit cycle really looks like,” Eisman, who is short various Canadian banks and mortgage lenders, fired back in an interview yesterday with BNN Bloomberg television. “I just think psychologically they’re extremely ill prepared.” 

While Canadian bank advocates and their skeptics exchange words, the formerly-white hot housing market is now in deep freeze. March sales in Vancouver collapsed by 31.4% year-over-year according to the local real estate board, the worst showing since 1986 and down 46% from the 10-year average for March. Prices also lurched lower, with the benchmark detached home price falling 10.5% year-over-year to C$1.44 million ($1.08 million). Things are more stable in Toronto, where March sales and benchmark prices were little changed from a year earlier, but those figures remain 40% and 14% below their respective levels from March 2017.

As the housing market sputters, the highly-leveraged Canadian consumer displays increasing signs of distress. According to the Bank for International Settlements, Canada’s household debt stands at 100.2% of GDP as of the end of September, by far the highest ratio among G7 economies (the U.K. is next at 86.5%), while the debt service ratio, or the percentage of disposable income allocated to principal and interest payments, rose to 14.9% in the fourth quarter per Statistics Canada, just shy of the 2007 peak.

That debt burden is starting to weigh on consumers. Auto loan delinquencies rose to 0.97% at year-end according to Equifax, Inc., the highest since 2009. At the same time, 36% of new auto loans in the fourth quarter were leases, the largest such share since 2007.  Bill Johnston, vice president of data and analytics at Equifax Canada Co., noted that “we’re starting to see consumer behavior shift to keep the payments as low as possible.”

On the credit card front, delinquencies of at least 90 days remained at a relatively low 0.79% as of February, down from 0.88% in the same month last year according to data from Bloomberg. But, as noted by the Royal Bank of Canada, consumers cut their average monthly payment to just 38% of outstanding balances in February, down from 50% in October and the lowest such ratio since 2015. RBC credit analyst Vivek Selot commented:

That deterioration in payment rates may be attributed to some stress on the consumer. Considering that fragile household balance sheets could be a precipitating factor for the credit cycle to turn, any signs of consumer credit quality deterioration seem worthy of attention.

Indeed, the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy reports that consumer insolvencies rose 5.4% year-over-year in February, bringing the rolling three-month average to its highest level since 2011.

The slowing housing market and increased consumer stress has taken a toll on one of the banks’ primary profit centers. According to the Bank of Canada, residential mortgage growth registered at 3.2% year-over-year in February, the lowest reading since 2001 and barely half of the 6% monthly average logged since the housing boom gathered steam in 2009. Back in March, Edward Jones & Co. investment strategist Craig Fehr noted to Bloomberg that mortgages frequently represent “the largest and most profitable and steady of the businesses that these banks operate.” Fehr concluded: “The bread and butter of profitability for Canadian banks – is going to have a little less butter on the bread.” Meanwhile, expectations remain high, with a 2019 analyst consensus of 15.7% return on equity for the S&P/TSX Bank Index, up from 14.2% last year and a five year average of 15%." 

Contemplating.

Stocks rallied once again, with the S&P 500 tacking on a 2% gain this week to bring the year-to-date advance to a 15.5%.

"Recap April 4" ~ higher

"Another rangebound session saw the S&P 500 finish higher by 0.2%, near its best levels of the day, while Treasurys also finished little changed with the 10-year yield settling at 2.51%.  Commodities and the dollar both finished higher, with the CRB Index rising for a fifth straight session despite weakness in crude as WTI fell back to $62 a barrel.  The VIX finished below 14." 

They say that it takes 10 years to become an overnight success.

We can compare investing to being an airline pilot: 90% of the job is uneventful to the point of automation, and 10% of the job is terrifying and requires complex skills and a flawlessly calm demeanour. "Nothing happens, then everything happens." Is life really all that different?

We all go through hardships. We all go through stress. But, we also experience periods of relative calm. It’s the shift between these states that make life interesting and at times difficult.

What would life be without struggle and overcoming obstacles? They say that it takes 10 years to become an overnight success. Don’t forget this as you approach each and every day. "Nothing happens, then everything happens." 

"Recap April 1"

"The second quarter started in familiar fashion, as stocks raced higher with the S&P 500 gaining more than 1% and the financials index tacking on nearly 2.5%. Treasury yields likewise ripped higher across the curve, with the 10-year back to 2.5% from less than 2.38% on Wednesday, and commodities also enjoyed a strong rally with the CRB Index gaining 1%.  WTI crude finished near $62 a barrel and is up by 42% from the Dec. 24 lows."