incongruous

"Man, because he sacrifices his health in order to make money. Then he sacrifices money to recuperate his health. Then he is so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present; the result being that he does not live in the present or the future; he lives as if he is never going to die, and then he dies having never really lived."

-Dalai Lama

Fed stimulus games

Traders can learn from Edison.

The average person would have quit at the first failure. That’s why there have been many average men and only one Edison.

"Thomas Edison once observed that the reason most folks don’t recognize opportunity when it comes knocking is that it is often dressed in coveralls and looks like work. Edison knew that anything worthwhile never comes easily; if it were easy, anyone could do it. Because he persisted far beyond the point the average person would consider reasonable and rational, he produced inventions that even the most learned people of the day considered impossible. Great advances in knowledge are often achieved by people with an almost fanatical devotion to finding the solution to a problem. Flashes of inspiration alone are not enough to ensure success; they must be followed by determined, persistent action." -Napoleon Hill

_highly recommended book_ "Think And Grow Rich"_ it could change your life

watch S&Ps cash 1400 area_it is an important psychological level

@_ Be aware of window dressing over the next three days as fund managers reconfigure their portfolios for the end of first quarter.

There are two kind of trades_

_there are winning trades and there are learning trades.


Maturing as a trader involves deep desire to be one, discipline, focus and the ability to make decisions. How do you get to this point? Make decisions and learn from them! I openly admit that I have made lots of mistakes in the market, and I still make mistakes. Thankfully, I’ve learned from them and now try my best to minimize those mistakes. The key is to make a decision without worrying that you might be wrong. As long as you learn from it, you can correct it the next time. Again, just make the decision, and make the money or learn from it. Wash, rinse and repeat.

Common sense isn't common. The crowd is invariably wrong at the extremes.

The plan remains the same

RE_READ YESTERDAY'S POST

markets now

The short-lived pullback and subsequent reversal didn’t do much other than perhaps work off some of the overbought condition on Monday. As of this morning, we don’t have any new patterns to work with other than the overall trend, and while yesterday’s pullback failed to do much damage, it still invalidated Monday's breakout for Russell which is still important. While this divergence does not take priority over the continued strong price action, the bulls still needs to see that breakout occur as it will provide confirmation and increase overall probability that we will see the S&Ps rally extend itself back to the 2007 / 2008 highs.

While the market held firm again in yesterday’s weak pullback attempt, the intraday price action has become too difficult to navigate profitably as pattern failures are becoming more common in the whippy, low-volume, program-controlled action. This provides us a small tell that we could be starting to transition into a different environment than what we’ve seen, so must have patience here and use selective positioning until we have some better patterns to work with beyond just the intraday setups that come our way. 

socialist reality grows stronger

The solution for too much debt is not more debt - although that's what Europe and others seem to think the solution is. It's crazy. They should be forcing countries to cut spending, they should allow creditors to take big losses, they should allow people to go bankrupt. The idea of printing more money and buying worthless bonds instead of allowing people to go bankrupt is how you destroy an economy.


The way capitalism works is if you make bad investments, you lose money. In the US they've had states and cities go bankrupt a number of times, but it didn’t end their existence and the US dollar. You start over from a stronger base once you acknowledge your mistakes. That's what's capitalism is all about. Sadly, capitalism is increasingly practiced only in theory, while the statist and socialist reality grows stronger.

from the book "The Trading Tribe"

This is a paragraph I wrote about my experience with TTP  for " The Trading Tribe " book;


Through consistent practicing of TTP I came to the place in me where I accept and love myself more than ever before. I accept and respect others as they are and share more joy and love with my family and friends. I feel more trust in myself. I feel like I'm traveling lighter through my life journey. I can clearly see what I have, and can share with others. I know my purpose. I am staying more and more in the Now where everything is perfect.


for more information about Trading Tribe Process go to 
http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TT_Process/index.htm
or email me for more info on PGTribe

Looking at the week ahead

                                   ES_after Friday's close_click to enlarge


The up auction continues with anxiety running high at quarter end and S&Ps up almost 12% for the year.


Last week of March is the most bearish of the month_ so possible consolidation or even a nasty one day shake and bake action_ which would produce some new patterns for us to trade.


Remember, price predicts the future_not investors. 

Have a great week.

wrestling with revenge

If there is one emotion that is completely void of the essential quality of good sense, tolerance, accurate thought and wisdom, it is that emotion we call revenge. It quickly derails one from his definite chief aim, causes a loss of focus, drains one's vital positive energy and ultimately self sabotages one's own journey towards achievement.

And so it with us in trading, when caught in destructive quest to satisfy our desire for revenge, it blinds our ability to think accurately, become productive and lose sight of our goal.

IRE_for your review

                             click on the chart to enlarge it

                         
                     http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=IRE&ty=c&ta=0&p=d


The information contained herein is for educational purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as an offer to hold, sell or an offer to buy any securities.

quadruple witching

                                        be prepared

As per your request Bob, this is one way of doing it.

                                  click on the chart to enlarge it

ES view; pit session close

      the up auction continues,  higher highs and higher lows pointing to higher prices

taking a look at_SWHC

                                 NICE BULL FLAG_ for educational purposes only



A__Understand when the odds are in your favour.
B__Understand where your entry point is and what your position size will be.
C__Establish your exit strategy for all situations - the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
D__Execute according to your plan. 


http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=swhc&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

Fed watch

@_11:15 pst FOMC__WATCHING FOR PRICE REACTION TO THE ANNOUNCEMENT

click on the chart to enlarge

S&Ps cash b/o and follow through on 120min chart prior to the FOMC announcement

pause, a good practice when trading

"Human freedom involves our capacity to pause,
to choose the one response toward which we wish to throw our weight."      ~ Rollo May

Phone call.

I just received a phone call from my friend Bob who asked me for some new equity names to buy. This is what I told him;

YES,
WE ARE IN A BULL MARKET WITH BROAD LEADERSHIP, SPECULATIVE SENTIMENT AND AN ACCOMMODATIVE MONETARY POLICY.
BUT,
MOST LEADERS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT OF BASIS AND NO LONGER OFFER ATTRACTIVE RISK REWARD RATIO.  THIS IS NOT THE BEST TIME FOR NEW POSITIONS. IT IS  A GOOD TIME TO WATCH THE MARKET AND IDENTIFY NAMES THAT ARE STAYING STRONG AS THEY ARE GOING TO BE THE FIRST TO GO OUT OF THE GATE WHEN THE MARKET BREAKS.
AND,
THERE ARE ALWAYS EXCEPTIONS TO RULES, AND THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF AN ATTRACTIVE ENTRY POINT PRESENT ITSELF YOU COULD BUY, WITH A SMALL POSITION, HOWEVER THESE ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AT THIS TIME.

HOPE THIS HELPS

When you become discouraged__________

I've learned about Helen Keller from Napoleon Hill's writings.
If you become discouraged, think of Helen Keller, who, though she was deaf and blind, inspired her more fortunate contemporaries through her books.
"The life of Helen Keller is an outstanding example of the triumph of the human spirit over a physical handicap. Even today, decades after her death, her life stands as a beacon of hope for those who must constantly struggle just to perform routine tasks that most of us take for granted. Whenever you feel fate has been unkind to you, all you must do is look around you and you will begin to appreciate how fortunate you are."

follow up on SWHC

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=swhc&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

LNKD

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=LNKD&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

In a weak market, to select, make a plan, and stalk some strong names is a good and profitable trading practise.

S&Ps 500 cash

We are 2.5% down from highs set last Wednesday. With widespread hope for a 5% pullback we are now half way there. 

no more buyers or what ?

Market can consolidate in one of two ways – through price or though time. When a stock or index is in a strong trend, these consolidations tend to occur sideways through time, rather than in a counter-trend price correction.

Not much has changed.

WATCH LEAP DAY, WEDNESDAY'S HIGH AND LOW AS FIRST REFERENCE #

No conviction ether way here, internals showing rotation taking place and we need to wait for a resolution with a follow through above or below reference numbers.

follow up on RENN

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=RENN

Now !

  IS THE MARKET GOING TO HOLD UP HERE

OR

  IS THE THE MARKET GOING TO CORRECT FROM HERE

Why You Win or Lose

Here's a lesson from the book Why You Win or Lose: The Psychology of Speculation.
This is an example of how the typical trader procrastinates when it comes to making a selling decision.

A man has rigged up a turkey trap with a trail of corn leading into a big box with a hinged door. The man holds a long piece of twine, connected to the door, that he can use to pull the door shut once enough turkeys have wandered into the box. However, once he shuts the door, he can't open it again without going back to the box, which would scare away any turkeys lurking on the outside.

One day, he had a dozen turkeys in his box. Then one walked out, leaving eleven. "I should have pulled the string when there were twelve inside," he thought, "but maybe if I wait, he will walk back in."

While he was waiting for his twelfth turkey to return, two more turkeys walked out. "I should have been satisfied with the eleven," he thought. "If just one of them walks back, I will pull the string."

While he was waiting, three more turkeys walked out. Eventually, he was left empty-handed.

His problem was that he could not give up the idea that some of the original turkeys would return. This is the attitude of the typical trader who can't bring himself to sell at a loss. He keeps expecting the market and his position to recover.

The moral is: To reduce your market risk, stop counting turkeys.