“Trading without a stop-loss is like driving a car without brakes. Those who trade without stops, eventually stop trading. "

"In summary, there is total panic in the markets right now, as technical support levels mean nothing. These massive oversold conditions will eventually lead to buy signals. The last time we had anything close to this many oversold conditions was on December 24th, 2018. The rally from there was a strong one. There has been more damage done now, and this is perhaps a medical crisis, not a financial one, so things could be different. But eventually, there will be buying. It is a matter of remaining patient and waiting for confirmed buy signals."

The two support areas are very important. The first is at approximately 3330. If that is violated, then that could then target the next support area, which is at 3210 / 3220.

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A sell signal in $VIX is to be noted, and if it were accompanied by a breakdown below $SPX support at 3330, that would be a potentially powerful bearish combination. For now, though, the bulls can still rescue upward motion, but they are running out of room.

Canada liked the oil and metals rally.

How Much is Enough?

             listen & learn

"As the chart below points out, Lost Decades have happened with alarming and surprising frequency, all preceded by expensive stocks or expensive bonds. Today, both are expensive."

                                                      click on the chart to enlarge

"The currency markets have never been so calm. That’s according to the J.P. Morgan Global FX Volatility Index, which touched an all-time low on Jan. 17 and remains near that record level going back to its inception in 1989."

                                                     The calm before the storm.

"In summary, the most bullish indicator is the chart of $SPX. When that is the case, one is best served by sticking with the upward momentum and remaining bullish."

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) broke out to new all-time highs again this past week, and now has closed at a new all-time high or traded at a new intraday all-time high on six of the last seven trading days. That keeps the $SPX chart bullish. There should be some support near the 3340 area, which was the old highs that were exceeded this week.

Support level that matters -- 3210 on $SPX held and the bulls are back.

For more confirmation, watch if $SPX can close above 3337 and $VIX can close below 15 again.

"Parabolic advances usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways."

                                 this is a good example of a "real" parabolic advance

"Focus is the art of knowing what to ignore."

"models...in times of crisis, the firm will pull back [risk] when they’re not sure, when they’re worried, and that’s part of that humility...they don’t have this arrogance...they get scared like you and I...in those kind of times [panic], [Simons] overruled his colleagues and he said, ‘Yes, we’ll probably make money here if we stick with our models, but I’m worried about surviving’

“The chart on the screen is the real market, not the one in our heads…”

The huge rally in stocks that began on October 4th, 2019, is in jeopardy. A couple of large down days have broken the steepness of the uptrend, but not the uptrend itself.

So, the $SPX chart is weakening, but hasn't completely capitulated to the bearish case yet. There is resistance at 3340 (the all-time highs) and there is support, as noted, at 3210. So if it continues to bounce around in that range, it would just be "re-generating," but a breakout in either direction should be significant.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals.

Market breadth has been poor, and both breadfth oscillators are on sell signals.

$VIX closed above 16 on January 27th, and that gave us the sell signal. This establishes an intermediate- term uptrend in $VIX which will remain intact as long as $VIX continues to close above 15.

So, for the most part part our indicators are bearish, and a "core" bearish position is warranted. An $SPX close below 3200 would add fuel to the fire.