In summary, the line of least resistance is still to the upside, but lately we have had more reversals and breakout failures than I've seen in a long time. Stocks have been breaking out of bases, just no follow-through.

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Math.

 You gain 100% and lose 50% 10 times, you break even. You gain 10% and lose 5% 10 times, you make 71.64%. The key to big returns is optimal math, not the biggest wins.

In summary, the line of least resistance is still to the upside. After getting to all time highs a week ago, the market has lost some of its mojo this week. The overbought conditions are slowly beginning to take a toll.

SP- 500 support is at this week's lows around 4120, with stronger support just below the March highs, and the major support at 3870. If 4000 is penetrated that would be a short term negative, and if 3870 is penetrated that would be a major change of trend.

GDX - monthly view

  Now fiscal and monetary stimulus as well as negative sentiment could be potentially bullish for the metal.

This new commodities bull market began in April of 2020. Confirmation occurred this January of 2021. Typically, cyclical bull market will last seven to nine years. Secular bull market will lasta 20+ years.

"Criticizing a musician is easy, but it is more difficult when you have a guitar in your hand."

When you think about holding, remember, leading stocks that topped in 1974 didn't get back to breakeven for 24 years. Many of the leading stocks that topped in  2000 took 15-20 years to get back to breakeven. Think about it!

Successful investors focus totally or more on what is in their control, and not at all or less on what is not.

What distinguishes people who achieve big goals from those who fail even in small things?

"Persistence and determination are omnipotent."

The fact is that to be successful in something and achieve your goals, large or small, you have to persevere.

Obviously by not continuing to bang your head blindly without knowing what you are doing.

But persevere with method and logic, wondering about the causes why a certain thing did not work and relying on these causes to find targeted solutions.

Not only that, you also need to focus on the things that worked and understand why.

Only in this way is it possible to learn from both defeats and victories , continuing to apply the principles and methods that have worked and finding alternatives to those that have failed.

This type of process is part of a particular mentality that not everyone has.

Many people, in fact, tend to give up in the face of difficulties.

They see them as insurmountable obstacles or as a sign of destiny that that certain thing is not for them.

In reality, however, difficulties are part of life and are present in any activity, including trading.

This is why it is important to consider each problem as a source of useful information to understand what to improve, rather than as an insurmountable obstacle.

This means that if you want to be successful in trading business you absolutely must not give up in the face of problems.

On the contrary, you have to adopt the same attitude that successful people have and ask yourself why some things you do work and others don't.

To do this, of course, you need a wealth of skills and experience that allow you to answer these "whys" and devise effective solutions.

"Seasons of life."

We are in the habit of imagining our lives to be linear, a long march from birth to death in which we mass our powers, only to surrender them again, all the while slowly losing our youthful beauty. This is a brutal untruth. Life meanders like a path through the woods. We have seasons when we flourish and seasons when the leaves fall from us, revealing our bare bones. Given time, they grow again.

In summary, the line of list resistance continues to be to the upside. The momentum is strong and positive which has made the market overbought in a general sense, but overbought doesn't mean sell. Stay alert, markets can turn on a dime, and don't forget to enjoy the ride.

Contrary to what some believe, the stock market doesn’t trade on some formula or “intrinsic value” such as P/E ratios or price-to-book, etc. If analyzing balance sheets were the Holy Grail for stock investing, accountants would be the world’s greatest and richest traders.

Commodity returns not seen so bad since before WW2.

 

"No one can succeed and remain successful without the friendly cooperation of others."

The best way to get friendly cooperation is to give it. When you make it a practice to encourage others and to help them advance in their careers whenever possible, most will reciprocate when you need their help. Give generously, and you will benefit in kind.

New IPO - COIN.

 

Party at the mansion -)

 

Believe in what you see, not what you believe. The line of least resistance is still to the upside, but remember that markets look best at their highs and worst at their lows.

April is historically a great month for the stock market.

Over the past two decades, from 2000 to 2020, April has been the best month of the year with an average return of 2.5% and a positive return 80% of the time.

The SP-500 support now at 3870 area.

XLE