2021 - "let it go"

I think of the trees and how simply they let go, let fall the riches of a season, how without grief (it seems) they can let go and go deep into their roots for renewal and sleep...

Imitate the trees. Learn to lose in order to recover, and remember that nothing stays the same for long, not even pain, psychic pain. Sit it out. Let it all pass. Let it go.

ARKK

double bottom, bullish divergence, HLMTR

ARKK - "to be, or not to be"

 

You are under no obligation to remain the same person you were a year ago, a month ago, or even a day ago. You are here to create yourself, continuously.

"Goals"

ARKK - is doing some squatting today - very short-time-frame trend is up now, but must hold around DB area.

Euro is working on its 7th consecutive monthly decline. Over the past 15 years, it reached 7 consecutive months in June 2010 and 9 consecutive months in March 2015.

Gold

 Note: PL - Jan./Feb. period UP 24 times in the past 26 years

Risk Focused Trading and Deep Dives Into Technical Analysis Edges

What if this growth stock correction is not a healthy, buyable one-- and we reject that view and think the other way. What if this is a secular, or multi-year shift, not a cyclical one.

Something to watch today - ARKK and how it closes. If it closes weak, that will be the lowest close so far in this down cycle and not a good sign.

 

About markets action on the FED day and a few days after that.

Day one; on the FED day there will be Over-Reaction.

Day two; there is usually Reaction-to-day-one-action.

Day three;  action is the best indication on how participants digested the news

"When market is bottoming, the best stocks make their lows ahead of the absolute low in the market averages. As the broader market averages make lower lows during the last leg down, the leaders diverge and make higher lows."

Anything can happen, but odds of a rate hike this week are incredibly low as it would probably sink stonks 25% in a week and that's obviously not happening.

"It's a bull market you know.........."

 

Stocks move for two basic reasons, anticipation and surprise. Every price movement is rooted in one of these two components; anticipation of news, an event, an important business change or reaction to unexpected event and surprise, whether positive or negative.

 

Opportunities.

"When considering a new project or opportunity, one of the first questions to ask is, “How do I want to spend my days?”

Make as few choices as possible that violate your answer.

Many opportunities seem exciting but actually give you less of the life you want."

Every cycle is different, but one of the hardest things to do is to sit out the sharp and fast relief rallies during primary downtrend. Every time they feel and seem real and so inviting.

An example - DOCU

"Once a market leader puts in a secular top, there is a 50 % chance that it will decline by 80 %  and an 80 % chance it will decline by 50 percent."

What is your plan ?

How are you going to get to your goal ? If you trade a short term move you give up the bigger move. If you go for the bigger move you will give up short term profits as you hold through pullbacks that never recover. There is no perfect plan. What is your plan ?

"When China sneezes, the whole world catches the flu."

 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Not something an investor should discount. 

Economic implications are pretty clear. Lower retail sales, home construction, fuel consumption. The lunar new year increases the risks of the virus spreading but it's also a holiday for many so in some ways the industrial and supply chain impacts are muted. If it keeps spreading, prevention efforts are going to get more intense and it's going to have a more meaningful impact on growth. The responses are similar to what they were a hundred years ago during the Spanish flu. Moreover, the better the control measures (curfews/travel bans/restrictions on public gatherings/limiting public transportation), the bigger the hit to growth. There are no easy choices.