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Thursday 25 November 2021

"When China sneezes, the whole world catches the flu."

 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Not something an investor should discount. 

Economic implications are pretty clear. Lower retail sales, home construction, fuel consumption. The lunar new year increases the risks of the virus spreading but it's also a holiday for many so in some ways the industrial and supply chain impacts are muted. If it keeps spreading, prevention efforts are going to get more intense and it's going to have a more meaningful impact on growth. The responses are similar to what they were a hundred years ago during the Spanish flu. Moreover, the better the control measures (curfews/travel bans/restrictions on public gatherings/limiting public transportation), the bigger the hit to growth. There are no easy choices.


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