"Be happy."

"We interrupt this program with a special bulletin: America is now under martial law. All constitutional rights have been suspended. Stay in your homes. Do not attempt to contact loved ones, insurance agents, or attorneys. Shut up. Do not attempt to think or depression may occur. Stay in your homes. Curfew is at 7PM sharp after work. Anyone caught outside the gates of their subdivision sectors after curfew will be shot. Remain calm, do not panic. Your neighborhood watch officer will be by to collect urine samples in the morning. Anyone caught interfering with the collection of urine examples will be shot. Stay in your homes, remain calm. The number one enemy of progress is question. National security is more important than individual will. All port broadcasts will proceed as normal. No more than two people may gather anywhere without permission. Use only the drugs prescribed by your boss or supervisor. Shut up, be happy. Obey all orders without question. The comfort you've demanded is now mandatory. Be happy. At last everything is done for you."

In summary, as long long as $SPX remains above support, one should remain long. If support at 4370 is taken out, that would change things greatly. For now, enjoy the ride.

In summary, everything appears fine, $SP made a new closing all-time high twice this week, but it has not made a new intra-day all-time high since July 29th, so its actually traded in a very tight trading range between 4370 - 4430. A break out of this range in ether direction should give us some momentum.

TLT

As rates go higher there is more pressure on the FED to taper sooner than later. Something to watch here is whether TLT stays down this time or dip buyers come back still calling the taper a bluff.

ZVIA - a different view

 

"In your recipe for success, don't forget commitment - and a deep belief in the inevitability of your success."

Three out of four major indexes are trading at new highs, Russell 2K is lagging.

The SP500 e-mini futures market rallied this week and it looks like the bulls want July to be the 6th consecutive bull bar on the monthly chart when the month ends on coming Friday. That has not happened in 10 years.

Use your mental inherent power - MEMORY

 

A sign of risk in the market.

"If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks."

"The market is currently in an uptrend. That could change at any moment and I would put a 70% probability on the S&P finishing the year higher than current levels. At the same time, a break below the June low would suggest a 50% chance of a retest of the 2021 lows, and a 5-10% chance of a 20-30% decline."

The market moves in probabilities. It's all about what's most likely to happen, but it's also about what could happen.

"Pilots are taught to always be ready for emergencies. And you prepare for the unknown by simulating engine failures and mechanical issues. Then if you actually experience an emergency during a flight, you've already planned out your course of action."

Losses happen. Even if your analysis is spot on, and your thesis is well-articulated, the market can move against you.

The key is to be ready for emergencies in your portfolio. Have a "line in the sand" clearly defined for any new position.

"The elements of good trading are: 1, cutting losses. 2, cutting losses. And 3, cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance." On the opposite side is selling into strength and taking profits, and you can consider doing it now with your extended stocks.

The "pros" were bearish at the bottom and now everyone is bullish. Keep you opinions in check and let the stocks dictate your course of action.

 

"You don't need to predict how everything will play out. Just master the next step and continue moving in the right direction."

What is wealth ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMr504P0GPM

When a rising tide doesn't lift all boats it makes me wonder if there's a problem with the boat.

Equities are enjoying a bounce led by some of the beaten-down parts of the market of late namely the Dow industrials, transports, small caps, energy, banks, and materials. Tech is showing relative weakness, as bonds run into resistance.

This is the standard "re-rotation," musical chairs-type of move we have grown accustomed to, although one I am increasingly skeptical of in terms of sustainability. Still, on a smoky summer Friday it may not be the exact moment for bears to try for a major intraday reversal. Indeed, looking out to next week could easily be the bigger battleground, as we find out whether the recent bounce in bonds was nothing more than a bear market rally, guiding a new regime of higher rates for the foreseeable future.

For stock traders this is the type of market when you let others fight for "hard pennies" while you patiently wait for "easy dollars". Now it's time for patience, waiting, stalking and then when the time is right you pounce.

The FOMC Minutes report is released at 11am PST today.

This could give insight into when the Federal Reserve is going to cut back on its monthly bond-buying program, which has been a major supporting factor in the economy and market growth throughout the pandemic. Though the Fed has been hesitant to end the program anytime soon, it has raised worries of how much debt the economy can handle before inflation gets too hot.

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”

 The market is weaker than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are suggesting which has been evident in the inconsistency we have seen from stocks trying to emerge from basis. Some are working , but more are not.

UNG - “The world is his who can see through its pretension. See it to be a lie, and you have already dealt it its mortal blow.”

 

In summary, we are willing to give the bullish case the benefit of the doubt as long as SPY continues to close above 410.00.

"If you understand, things are as they are. If you do not understand, things are as they are." It is what it is, people are buying guns.