trading

trading

Wednesday 14 July 2021

"If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks."

"The market is currently in an uptrend. That could change at any moment and I would put a 70% probability on the S&P finishing the year higher than current levels. At the same time, a break below the June low would suggest a 50% chance of a retest of the 2021 lows, and a 5-10% chance of a 20-30% decline."


The market moves in probabilities. It's all about what's most likely to happen, but it's also about what could happen.

"Pilots are taught to always be ready for emergencies. And you prepare for the unknown by simulating engine failures and mechanical issues. Then if you actually experience an emergency during a flight, you've already planned out your course of action."

Losses happen. Even if your analysis is spot on, and your thesis is well-articulated, the market can move against you.

The key is to be ready for emergencies in your portfolio. Have a "line in the sand" clearly defined for any new position.

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