" bandwagon ” theory: Traders often hear about “tulip mania,” the “South Sea bubble” and other similar events where traders have followed the crowd to send p...

ung

                                                                  weekly

 

monthly

UNG

                                          ( for tomorrow buy stop at )  $20.20

follow up on AAPL

reference #'s  to consider below are 514.50 and 508.00

The single greatest challenge you face as an investor and a trader is handling the truth about yourself.

Now ~ 'The S&P 500 is up over 20% year-to-date. Despite the move it's had so far this year, most have had a tough time of things including the trend following wizards who are tracked here: http://www.automated-trading-system.com/trend-following-wizards-September-2013'

follow up on AAPL

                                   good reference point below is at 508.oo

AAPL

Apple's cash purse is so big, it represents approximately 10% of all US corporate cash ~ in one company 
~ failed failure, now looking for a break out of this triangle/flag/consolidation area

"All life is an experiment. The more experiments you make the better."

October: What’s the big deal?

In an already unsettled world, the month of October is known for its surprises. It is also known as the “jinx” month because of the crashes in 1929 and 1987; the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997; back-to-back massacres in 1978-1979; Friday the 13th in 1989; and the credit crisis meltdown in 2008.

10/10/08 marked the “Dow’s worst week in history on Wall Street” when the Dow lost 1874 points or (-18.2%) in one week. For whatever reason, the markets tend to send mixed directional messages during October.

October the Bear Killer

There have also been some wicked bottoms made in October, and that is why the month is also known as the “bear killer.” October has turned the tide in post-WWII bear markets in 1946, 1957, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, and 2011. The Dow made its previous 1589 top in 2007, the 20-year anniversary of the 1987 crash, then droppd 2.6%.

The end of October ends the “worst 6 months” for stocks and starts the best 6 months, from November to April. October is a great month to buy with solid gains from 1993-2007. And last but not least, October 2001 was the the second month to gain 1,000 Dow points.

Best 6 Months

The best 6 months for stocks starts November 1 and goes to April 30. While some people may dispute it, the stats speak for themselves. There are definitely good and bad seasons for the stock market and the fall is not a good time, but the year end tends to be.

The top performing months are November, December, January, March and April, dating back to 1950. The best 6 months gained 14,654.27 Dow points in 62 years, while May through October lost 1,654.97 points. The S&P gained 1,477.55 points in the best six months and lost 97.71 points in the worst six. For many traders, this is reason enough to take the summer off.

If the markets didn’t have enough historical reason to be spooked going into October, our government just handed us–and the world–a lot of avoidable uncertainty about the U.S. dollar and our ability to keep our house in order. It raises a broad range of questions and concerns about what the rest of the month will bring. ~ an excerpt from MrTopStep

The qestion is: can we hold the gains we got ?

most breakouts fail, but not all of them, follow through is the key now

the wiser a man becomes the more he knows that he doesn't know

S&P 500 cash

Friday was an inside day, the break tomorrow will set up the tone for the beginning of the week. Possible C&H formation. Confidence is low.

News : "Months of anticipation will come to an end this week when the Federal Reserve finally says whether it will start to rein in its massive stimulus of the economy, which has flooded financial markets with some $2.75 trillion over the past five years, supercharging returns on everything from stocks to junk bonds."

a major top ?

we don't know, but we know that majority of people are now stuck on the wrong side of the market
 re-read August 16th blog, What do we do now?

~ the more you struggle the quicker you sink ~ the first solution is always to relax and often move slightly in the direction that is opposite to what your instincts tell you

some simple solutions.........

When you are stuck, the more effort you put into trying to un-stuck yourself, the worse off you become. It’s a little like being stuck in quicksand—the more you struggle the quicker you sink. The first solution is always to relax and often move slightly in the direction that is opposite to what your instincts tell you. For example, a pilot going into a nosedive must first push gently into the dive to get air flowing under the wings properly. At that point he can begin to control the airplane. Similarly, when you start to skid in your car, you must first steer into the skid until you gain control over the car—which our natural reaction is to do the opposite.

If you are stuck in your goal of becoming an excellent trader, try doing the opposite of your instincts. If you must take a trade, make it okay not to take the trade. Instead, move toward working on your emotions.

The second solution is to focus on what you want. When you focus on limitations, you feel the emotions of the stop sign or the limitation. When you focus on what you want to achieve, then you begin to see possibilities and new resources that open you up. What is your focus?

Finally, the third solution is to focus on being what you want to be. If you want to be a great trader, don’t focus on what they have or do, focus on their state of being. What is it like to be a great trader? What is it like to step into their shoes?

New ~ P.G. Trading Tribe starting in September

NOTE ~ even though we call it the trading tribe it's not only for traders, but for anyone who is willing, able and ready to grow and improve their lives

The Trading Tribe

is an association of people who commit to excellence,

personal growth, and supporting and receiving support from each other.

The members of the Trading Tribe 

trade roles, becoming, in turn senders and receivers for each other.

Mastery Includes

• The Trading Tribe Process.
• Going with the Trend.
• Right Livelihood.
• Support Network.
• Contributing to Others
  
  for more info about the TTP process go to http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TT_Process/index.htm
  
  
  
  for application details and any questions regarding P.G. Tribe, 
  email mtci@telus.net

What do we do now?

Risk is high. Market's been trading sideways for a while, but now it looks like it's rolling over. There is lots of overhead supply created by people buying in the range and now stuck with a loss. The longer we stay below the range the more willing these people will be to sell and that can create even more selling. For now even though it looks like we are going to roll over,  I would not go and short yet, wait for a bounce, second entry is higher probability trade. Staying away from the long side now except for pickings in some areas, like metals, that can move independently of the market.

follow up on MCP

                              still stalking

Friday's News : Investigation of Molycorp, Inc. ;

there was lots of overhead supply before the news, now even more scared people, so it's going to be interesting to watch the price action next week
do we find support and turn around, or do we follow through on the gap, break down through support and accelerate, or do we stay in the range and find the fairest value in there for awhile

How Great Can You Be?

Some days trading will feel like a lion fight.

Remember that if you are going to fight every day, then you are going to get wounded from time to time and you will have scars. Don’t lick your wounds….. and realise 
that the scars you wear are a sign of a competitor. Just because you have a 
bad day fighting, does not mean you don’t know how to roar. 

http://vimeo.com/43266438#

The first secret of success.

"People become really quite remarkable when they start
thinking that they can do things. When they believe in
themselves they have the first secret of success."
- Norman Vincent Peale

" whatever you can conceive and believe you can achieve "

Rare Earth ~ MCP

                               possible transition