October: What’s the big deal?

In an already unsettled world, the month of October is known for its surprises. It is also known as the “jinx” month because of the crashes in 1929 and 1987; the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997; back-to-back massacres in 1978-1979; Friday the 13th in 1989; and the credit crisis meltdown in 2008.

10/10/08 marked the “Dow’s worst week in history on Wall Street” when the Dow lost 1874 points or (-18.2%) in one week. For whatever reason, the markets tend to send mixed directional messages during October.

October the Bear Killer

There have also been some wicked bottoms made in October, and that is why the month is also known as the “bear killer.” October has turned the tide in post-WWII bear markets in 1946, 1957, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, and 2011. The Dow made its previous 1589 top in 2007, the 20-year anniversary of the 1987 crash, then droppd 2.6%.

The end of October ends the “worst 6 months” for stocks and starts the best 6 months, from November to April. October is a great month to buy with solid gains from 1993-2007. And last but not least, October 2001 was the the second month to gain 1,000 Dow points.

Best 6 Months

The best 6 months for stocks starts November 1 and goes to April 30. While some people may dispute it, the stats speak for themselves. There are definitely good and bad seasons for the stock market and the fall is not a good time, but the year end tends to be.

The top performing months are November, December, January, March and April, dating back to 1950. The best 6 months gained 14,654.27 Dow points in 62 years, while May through October lost 1,654.97 points. The S&P gained 1,477.55 points in the best six months and lost 97.71 points in the worst six. For many traders, this is reason enough to take the summer off.

If the markets didn’t have enough historical reason to be spooked going into October, our government just handed us–and the world–a lot of avoidable uncertainty about the U.S. dollar and our ability to keep our house in order. It raises a broad range of questions and concerns about what the rest of the month will bring. ~ an excerpt from MrTopStep