trading

trading

Monday, 30 May 2016

50/200 dma ready to cross

this could mean inflation is coming back and lower prices for bonds and higher prices for stocks

Tuesday, 24 May 2016

If we look back at 2010 we can see a lot of similarities.

Stocks were hammered in the first half of 2010 by the potential default of Greece - and for energy stocks, the oil spill in the Gulf.  The macro clouds were removed, and in the second half of 2010, the S&P 500 rallied from down 7% to up 15% by year end.

The Russell 2000 was down 6% for the year through July of 2010.  Over the next five months it rallied 34 percentage points to finish UP 27% on the year.

What about energy?  After being down 12% in the first half of 2010, the XLE (the energy ETF tied to a basket of energy stocks) returned 34% off the bottom and 22% for the year.

Also remember, in Fed tightening cycles, stocks tend to go UP not down. We’re officially five months into a Fed tightening cycle and stocks are basically flat.  

.Patience required.

Since the Fed said the market was not giving enough weight to a rate hike this June, the market has stalled out with volumes drying up considerably on most stocks and few gains to be had.