If we look back at 2010 we can see a lot of similarities.

Stocks were hammered in the first half of 2010 by the potential default of Greece - and for energy stocks, the oil spill in the Gulf.  The macro clouds were removed, and in the second half of 2010, the S&P 500 rallied from down 7% to up 15% by year end.

The Russell 2000 was down 6% for the year through July of 2010.  Over the next five months it rallied 34 percentage points to finish UP 27% on the year.

What about energy?  After being down 12% in the first half of 2010, the XLE (the energy ETF tied to a basket of energy stocks) returned 34% off the bottom and 22% for the year.

Also remember, in Fed tightening cycles, stocks tend to go UP not down. We’re officially five months into a Fed tightening cycle and stocks are basically flat.