Conditions & Triggers
Market Regime & Execution Brief
Clear conditions. Defined triggers. Disciplined execution.
When to act. When to wait. No signal — no trade.
Week of May 18, 2026
The regime held. The pressure is real.
The structure did not break. The constraint hardened. Both are true. Neither resolves the other.
The market is discounting a resolution the data does not yet support. The system does not predict when that gap closes. It sizes for the possibility that it closes badly.
Unclear condition — no trade.
OPERATING SYSTEM ANCHOR
I pre-plan while markets are closed. The market determines my level of activity.
Preparation → Conditional Execution. No real-time emotion. No impulsive decisions.
The strongest stocks are those that held structure while uncertainty dominated headlines. That is the filter. That is the edge.
MONDAY FILTER
Before any action this week — three questions. Answer them before touching anything.
Did the stock hold its key structural level during last week's pressure? Is the entry zone still valid — price has not already extended beyond it? Does the original thesis still hold?
Any No = No trade.
This week's pre-answers: NVDA — Yes to all three. Hold. No adds. Earnings May 20. AVGO — Yes to all three. Hold. Stop $399 intact. Week low $404.80 held. ALGM — Zone still valid. Trigger still not fired. No position. Watch only. INTC — No to question one. No trade.
MASTER REGIME CARD
Regime: Strong Bull Market — Under Pressure (Degraded) Score: 83/100 · Delta: –12 from peak
Seven-week progression: 75 → 81 → 88 → 96 → 94 → 95 → 83
Largest single-week deterioration since launch. Participation weakened materially beneath index highs. The regime itself has not broken. The velocity matters — drifting lower.
Permitted aggression: Selective Full size only on highest-conviction setups with confirmed structure. No chasing extensions or unproven recoveries. Adds only on constructive retests of confirmed levels. Default when unclear: stand aside.
Cash target: 10–20% Max risk per trade: 0.5% — never exceeded.
What drove the –12 delta: Breadth deterioration — Hindenburg Omen triggered simultaneously on NYSE and Nasdaq May 14. CPI April 3.8% — hottest since May 2023. Core 2.8%, above 2.7% estimate. 10-year yield surged to 4.595% — highest since May 2025. 30-year at 5.121%. Rate hike probability: 45% — from 1% one month ago. Russell –2.44% Friday while S&P –1.24% — small caps showing relative weakness beneath the headline.
The regime pivot event this week: NVDA earnings May 20 after close. NVDA beats and guides higher → regime score recovers toward 88–90. NVDA disappoints → SOX breaks 50-day → regime drops toward 78 → shift to wait signal.
SECTOR ROTATION DASHBOARD
Active — deploy here Semiconductors / AI Infrastructure → Capex-backed structural demand. Held structure under pressure. Industrials → Reshoring and capital spending tailwind.
Conditional Energy → WTI above $103. Geopolitical premium, not structural. Do not chase.
Losing leadership — avoid Defensives · Regional Banks · Rate-sensitive consumer names
Flow check Capital concentrating in AI and semiconductors. Breadth deteriorating beneath index highs. IWM underperforming SPY — watch for confirmation of rotation.
Exit signal RS vs SPY breaks 50-day AND price loses 20-day → rotation confirmed → reallocate.
Directive Focus on the 2–3 names that held structure. Sequence matters. One position at a time.
REGIME SCORE DELTA
Seven-week progression: 75 → 81 → 88 → 96 → 94 → 95 → 83
+4 — S&P and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs Thursday before Friday reversal. AI infrastructure confirmed.
+2 — NVDA $236.54 weekly high. Semiconductor leadership intact through Thursday.
–6 — Hindenburg Omen triggered simultaneously NYSE and Nasdaq May 14. Breadth deteriorating beneath index highs.
–4 — CPI April 3.8%, hottest since May 2023. Core 2.8%. Rate hike probability 45%. 10-year 4.595%, highest since May 2025.
–4 — Iran ceasefire "on life support" per Trump. WTI above $103. IEA: Hormuz flows down 4 million bpd. Undersupply possible through October.
–2 — Russell –2.44% Friday. Breadth narrowing.
Net: –12. Score 95 → 83.
The structure held. The constraint hardened. Both are true.
IN BRIEF
The week that proved the market can hold structure through almost anything — and then showed the limits of that resilience.
Thursday: S&P and Nasdaq hit simultaneous all-time highs. NVDA touched $236.54. AI infrastructure thesis running through every headwind the week had thrown at it.
Friday: Everything reversed. CPI at 3.8% — hottest since May 2023 — fully absorbed by the bond market. The 10-year surged 14 basis points to 4.595%. The 30-year hit 5.121%. Rate hike probability jumped from 1% to 45% in a single month. NVDA fell 3.6%. Intel fell 5%. AMD and Micron each fell 3–4%. S&P –1.24%. Nasdaq –1.54%. Russell –2.44%.
The Hindenburg Omen triggered on both NYSE and Nasdaq simultaneously on May 14. Kevin Warsh officially became Fed Chair May 14. His first meeting is June. With CPI at 3.8% and the 10-year at 4.595%, his first communication posture sets the frame for the rest of 2026.
Iran ceasefire expires today. Trump called it "on life support" and "unbelievably weak." Trump was in Beijing meeting Xi Jinping Friday. Xi gets 40% of China's energy through Hormuz. The third round of US-Iran Washington talks Thursday was described as "productive." Iran's parliament proposed a fee-based traffic management plan for Hormuz — commercial vessels cooperating with Iran can transit, others cannot.
NVDA earnings Wednesday May 20 after close. This is the dominant event of the week. Everything else is secondary.
THE WEEK IN FIVE MINUTES
Sunday morning check first: Iran ceasefire expires today May 18. Check whether it has been extended or whether Trump has announced resumption of operations before reading further. This overrides everything below. Also check whether the Trump-Xi Beijing meeting produced any joint statement on Hormuz — that would be the most significant diplomatic development since the ceasefire began.
Monday May 11 – Wednesday May 13: Post-NFP consolidation. Markets absorbed the +115K print. AI leadership holding. NVDA making new highs. CPI Wednesday May 13: April 3.8% — hottest since May 2023. Core 2.8%, above 2.7% estimate.
Wednesday May 14: Hindenburg Omen triggers on both NYSE and Nasdaq simultaneously. Kevin Warsh officially becomes Fed Chair. 10-year yield begins its surge.
Thursday May 15: S&P and Nasdaq hit simultaneous all-time highs despite the rate pressure. NVDA $236.54 weekly high. AI thesis running through the macro headwind. The market was pricing a future in which AI demand growth outpaces every constraint.
Friday May 15: Bond market accelerated the selloff. 10-year +14bps to 4.595%. 30-year 5.121%. NVDA –3.6% to $225.32. S&P –1.24%. Nasdaq –1.54%. Russell –2.44%. Intel –5%. AMD and Micron –3–4%.
What did not get enough attention: Trump in Beijing meeting Xi Jinping Friday. Xi gets 40% of China's energy through Hormuz. The Trump-Xi dynamic is now the most important diplomatic variable for the oil market — more important than direct US-Iran talks. If Xi signals pressure on Iran to reopen Hormuz, the oil market reprices faster than any other catalyst available. Watch for any post-Beijing joint statement or communication before Sunday trading opens.
YOUR NUMBERS
Verified: Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, TradingEconomics, CNBC — Friday May 15, 2026 close
Equities S&P 500: 7,408.50 (–1.24%) Nasdaq: 26,225.15 (–1.54%) Dow: 49,526.17 (–1.07%) Russell 2000: 2,793.30 (–2.44%) VIX: 18.43 (+6.78%)
Week context S&P and Nasdaq hit simultaneous ATH Thursday before Friday reversal. NVDA weekly high: $236.54
Macro WTI: ~$103 (+8% on the week) Gold: $4,561.90 | 10Y: 4.595% | 30Y: 5.121% | DXY: strengthening
CPI April 2026 Headline: 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023) Core: 2.8% YoY (above 2.7% estimate) Rate hike probability: 45% (from 1% one month ago)
Fed Kevin Warsh — Fed Chair as of May 14. First FOMC meeting: June.
Regime Score: 83/100 · Regime 1 Degraded · Selective · NVDA May 20 = regime pivot
YOUR CHECKLIST
Score: 5 of 5 structurally — but degrading. Selective deployment only.
The checklist is green. The regime score is degraded. Both are inputs. Act on the intersection.
Score permits. Checklist authorizes. Degraded velocity demands selectivity.
☑ Structure confirmed — S&P, Nasdaq at ATH Thursday. Golden Cross intact. Structure not broken on Friday close.
☑ Breadth — Deteriorating. Hindenburg Omen May 14. Russell –2.44% Friday. Warning active — not a confirmed break.
☑ Volatility — VIX 18.43. Elevated but not spiking. No confirmed fear signal yet.
☑ Leadership — Semiconductors held structure in the names that matter. NVDA, AVGO, ARM all above 20 EMA.
☑ Intermarket — Concerning. 10-year 4.595%, 30-year 5.121%. DXY strengthening. Bond rout is the primary variable now.
◎ Three governing constraints — not gates, but watches
Iran ceasefire expires today May 18. If not extended — oil spikes, regime resets toward 3, cash goes to 80%+. Check before anything else.
CPI at 3.8% and 10-year at 4.595% — rate hike probability 45%. Every rate-sensitive name carries increased risk. FICO half-size hold correct. No adds on any rate-sensitive name until the June FOMC sets Warsh's posture.
NVDA earnings May 20 — the regime pivot event. No adds before the print. Assess structure on the post-earnings session before any action.
Checklist defines environment. Triggers define action. Conditions define. Triggers act.
HIDDEN SIGNAL WATCH
NVDA May 20 — the event that sets next week's regime. The setup for a beat is strong — Mag 7 capex confirmed, TD Cowen target $275, AI demand from hyperscalers committed through 2027. The risk: NVDA touched $236.54 this week — new all-time high territory. A beat already priced by the market creates sell-the-news conditions even on a strong print. The system's response: no entry before the print. After the print — if NVDA holds above $220 on the post-earnings session, that is the institutional vote of confidence.
Trump-Xi and the Hormuz variable. Xi gets 40% of China's energy through Hormuz. Trump was in Beijing Friday. This meeting is more important for the oil market than any direct US-Iran negotiation — China has leverage over Iran that the US does not. Any joint statement on Hormuz from this weekend reprices oil instantly. Watch before markets open Sunday.
The Warsh Fed and the 10-year. The 10-year at 4.595% is the bond market pricing a hawkish Warsh Fed. With CPI at 3.8%, his first June meeting could deliver a hawkish surprise the equity market has not fully priced. If the 10-year breaks above 4.70% next week — equities face a new headwind the AI capex thesis cannot fully offset alone.
None of these are entry triggers. All three determine how you size and sequence entries this week.
OPEN POSITIONS — THE RECORD
Portfolio record starts May 3, 2026 — Issue #1. Every position tracked publicly. Entry, trigger, size, and outcome recorded at close.
Open
NVDA — Hold (Free Trade) Entry: $200.35 · Stop: Below 20 EMA ($201.60) Stop is above entry — position cannot lose at current stop level. Friday close: $225.32 · Week: High $236.54 / Low $213.89 Current unrealized gain from entry: +$24.97 per share (+12.5%) No adds ahead of May 20 earnings. Rule is the rule.
AVGO — Hold Entry: $420.00 · Stop: $399 Friday close: $425.19 · Week: High $442.36 / Low $404.80 Week low $404.80 held above stop — position survived the pressure. Current unrealized gain from entry: +$5.19 per share (+1.2%) OpenAI financing headline resolved as negotiating friction, not deal collapse. Thesis intact. No averaging down. No adds.
Missed (by rule)
NVDA original — NFP trigger April 3. Entry zone $167–170. Price never reached zone. Correct execution.
INTC — Gap-Up classification. Pullback zone $76–80. Never triggered at any point. Friday close $108.77. No entry. No chase. Correct execution.
ARM — Surged to $228.68 weekly high before pullback to $209.16. No clean entry at an acceptable level. Watching 20 EMA as potential re-entry.
ALGM — Zone $43–45 reached multiple times. Intra-zone trigger did not fire. No position was taken. Conditions define the trade — not hindsight.
MXL — Four criteria not met in required sequence. No entry. Friday close $92.34.
Closed —
MOMENTUM SCAN
Regime 1 Degraded. Existing positions take priority. New entries require higher conviction bar. Enter within 3% of pivot — tightened from 5% for degraded regime.
Gap-Up Rule: Stock up more than 10% on session: size caps at 50%, entry is next-day pullback only.
Intra-zone trigger: 5-minute hold inside zone, volume ≤ 1.5× average. No exceptions.
NVDA — Open position · Hold · No adds pre-earnings Entry: $200.35 · Stop: below 20 EMA ($201.60) · Free trade Friday close: $225.32 · 10 EMA: $211.18 · 20 EMA: $218.94
NVDA earnings May 20 after close. No adds. No new entries. No exceptions. After May 20: if beats and holds above $220 post-earnings session → assess add at 20 EMA retest. If disappoints → evaluate stop and regime implications before any action.
AVGO — Open position · Hold Entry: $420.00 · Stop: $399 Friday close: $425.19 · 20 EMA: $403.99 · KC upper band: ~$440
Week low $404.80 held above stop. 20 EMA at $403.99 is dynamic support — stop at $399 sits just below it. Structure intact. Hold. Do not add. Do not move stop.
AMD — Score 88/100 — R/R 3.2:1 Entry type: Pivot · Size: 50% initial · Add post-NVDA only
Data center revenue $5.8B in Q1, up 57% YoY. CEO projects 80%+ revenue growth in 2027. Closest institutional substitute to NVDA going into earnings week.
If NVDA beats May 20 → AMD sympathy move highest probability → add second 50%. If NVDA disappoints → AMD holds better than most due to its own confirmed earnings narrative.
Do NOT enter full size ahead of NVDA. 50% now on pullback, 50% post-NVDA confirmation.
Entry: Pullback toward 20 EMA · Stop: below 20 EMA · T1: +18% · T2: +35% Size: 0.5% risk on initial half. Second half contingent on NVDA results.
ARM — 20 EMA watch Friday close: $209.16 · Week: High $228.68 / Low $200.89 · 20 EMA: ~$210
Weekly low $200.89 tested the 20 EMA and recovered. Relative strength — the tell the system watches for. ARM held structure through the week better than most.
Holds above $210 Monday with volume contraction → 20 EMA entry consideration. Loses $210 on volume → watch 10 EMA as next support.
Entry: 20 EMA touch with volume contraction · Stop: below 20 EMA · Size: full · T1: +15%
INTC — No entry Friday close: $108.77 · 20 EMA: $102.08
Strength without structure. Distribution signal on Friday volume. No entry. No action. Mean reversion toward 20 EMA at $102.08 remains the higher probability outcome.
MXL — Watch only Friday close: $92.34 · 20 EMA: $74.83
Still extended above 20 EMA. No clean base formation in degraded regime. Watch only.
TURNAROUND SCAN
Regime 1 Degraded. Stocks that held structure and refused to break — not the biggest decliners.
ALGM — Watch · Zone valid Friday close: $43.10 · Week: High $49.02 / Low $42.24 · 20 EMA: ~$47.40
Zone $43–45 reached multiple times across two weeks. Intra-zone trigger has not fired. The zone keeps being tested and holding on a closing basis — constructive underlying behavior. The trigger rule exists precisely for this situation.
On next qualified touch: apply full intra-zone trigger — 5-minute hold inside zone, volume ≤ 1.5× average.
Stop: $38.50 · Squeeze watch above $55 · Size: 1.5% risk maximum
FICO — Half-size hold · No add Friday close: $1,098.59 · Week: High $1,120.24 / Low $1,046.22 10 EMA: $1,121.97 · 20 EMA: $1,070.88
CPI at 3.8% and 10-year at 4.595% impair the rate-cut catalyst thesis materially. Week low $1,046.22 tested the 20 EMA zone and held. Hold existing half-size. No add.
FICO returns to full conviction if: June FOMC shows Warsh patience AND subsequent CPI decelerates below 3.5%.
Stop reference: close below 20 EMA at $1,070.88.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND
Iran ceasefire collapses today. Expires May 18. If Trump announces resumption of operations — oil spikes above $115, regime resets toward 3, cash 80%+, all new entries suspended, existing stops apply. This overrides everything else.
NVDA disappoints May 20. SOX breaks 50-day SMA. Regime score drops toward 78. Shift to wait signal across semiconductor names. Reassess AVGO thesis if AI capex guidance softens.
10-year breaks above 4.70%. Bond rout accelerates. Rate hike in 2026 becomes consensus. All rate-sensitive names reprice. Reduce new entries. Increase cash toward 20%.
Breadth deterioration confirms. Hindenburg Omen May 14 + IWM/SPY rolling over + NH-NL ratio flipping negative on 3-day trend = confirmed regime deterioration. Move to Regime 2 posture.
Hard regime change triggers — none confirmed yet: VIX sustained above 25 · NH-NL ratio negative 3-day · IWM/SPY reversing with defensive leadership · 10Y above 4.70% · Iran full escalation resumption
NUMBER OF THE WEEK
4.595%
The 10-year Treasury yield. Friday close. Up 14 basis points on the day. Highest since May 2025.
This is the number that changes the calculus — not CPI at 3.8%, which the market processed Tuesday. The bond market's Friday acceleration is the signal that the Warsh Fed is being priced. Rate hike probability at 45% from 1% in a month is the fastest repricing of Fed expectations in 2026.
The AI capex trade has held against CPI surprises, geopolitical risk, and exchanges of fire. It has not yet been tested against a genuine rate hike cycle. If Warsh delivers a hawkish June meeting with the 10-year at 4.70+%, that test begins.
Watch the 10-year. It is now the governing variable — more important than VIX, more important than oil, more important than any individual earnings report except NVDA.
EVENT CALENDAR — WEEK OF MAY 18
Sunday May 18 — Today Iran ceasefire expiration. Check extension or resumption before markets open. Trump returning from Beijing — any joint US-China Hormuz statement changes the oil picture immediately.
Monday May 19 Market reaction to ceasefire status. Apply Monday Filter before any action.
Tuesday May 20 No major data. NVDA earnings after close — most important event of the week. No new semiconductor entries today. No position expansion. Wait.
Wednesday May 21 NVDA post-earnings reaction — sets the regime posture for the rest of the week. Beats and holds above $220 → semiconductor thesis confirmed, assess adds. Disappoints → evaluate all semiconductor positions against stops before any action.
Thursday May 22 Jobless claims. Reaction to post-NVDA sector rotation.
Friday May 23 By Friday: Did NVDA confirm or deny the AI thesis? Did the ceasefire hold? Is the 10-year above or below 4.70%? The answers write Issue #4.
THE FULL PICTURE
The week that proved the market can hold structure through almost anything — and then revealed the limits of that resilience.
Thursday was the thesis running. S&P and Nasdaq at simultaneous all-time highs. NVDA at $236.54. AI infrastructure confirming. The Mag 7 capex story is real and multi-year committed. The market was right to price it.
Friday was the constraint tightening. CPI at 3.8% — not a one-quarter spike but a second consecutive month of acceleration. The 10-year surging to 4.595%. The Hindenburg Omen on both exchanges simultaneously. Kevin Warsh in the Fed Chair seat for the first time, with the market pricing a 45% chance he hikes. This is not the environment April was pricing.
Both days were real. The system holds both without resolving them. It resolves them in the sizing — full size on AI infrastructure names where the thesis is independent of rate cuts, half size or hold on rate-sensitive names where the catalyst requires rate relief.
The structural observation that matters most entering this week: the names that held through Friday's selloff are the ones worth owning. NVDA held its 20 EMA. AVGO held above $404. ARM held its weekly low near the 20 EMA. These are not coincidences — they are institutional behavior. Accumulation during uncertainty, acceleration when clarity arrives.
NVDA earnings May 20 is the single event that resolves — or deepens — the tension between Thursday and Friday. The setup for a beat is strong. The risk is the setup itself — NVDA at $236.54 before earnings means a strong print into elevated expectations. The system's answer is not a prediction. It is a structure test. Hold above $220 post-earnings = thesis running. Lose $220 post-earnings = reassess.
The Iran ceasefire expires today. The Trump-Xi Beijing meeting Friday is the most important diplomatic development for the oil market since the ceasefire began. Xi gets 40% of China's energy through Hormuz. If China signals pressure on Iran to reopen the strait, the oil market reprices before any other catalyst can. Watch for a post-Beijing statement before Sunday trading opens.
The Warsh Fed is the structural headwind that matters most for the next three months. His first meeting is June. With CPI at 3.8% and the 10-year at 4.595%, his first communication posture sets the frame for the rest of 2026. The AI capex trade has proven resilient against geopolitical risk and inflation surprises. It has not yet been tested against a genuine tightening cycle. That test may begin in June.
The system does not anticipate. It waits. If conditions align, it acts. If not, it holds. If any condition is unclear — no trade.
The Week That Was
Thursday May 15 — The last all-time high before the reversal
S&P and Nasdaq hit simultaneous all-time highs. NVDA touched $236.54. The AI infrastructure trade ran through every macro headwind the week had thrown at it. Institutional conviction in the AI capex theme was deep enough to push markets to all-time highs against CPI at 3.8% and WTI above $103.
What this confirmed: the AI thesis is not narrative. It is contracted capital — Mag 7 committed to approximately $660 billion in 2026 AI infrastructure. That is the demand floor the semiconductor supply chain is pricing. AVGO, NVDA, ARM, and AMD all sit inside it.
Forward implication: the AI thesis must now be validated by NVDA's own earnings. Everything this week was secondhand evidence. May 20 is the primary source.
Friday May 15 — The bond market responded
The 10-year surged 14 basis points to 4.595%. The 30-year hit 5.121%. Rate hike probability jumped to 45%. NVDA fell 3.6%. Intel fell 5%. The Russell fell 2.44%.
What this revealed: the bond market was ahead of the equity market all week. The Hindenburg Omen on May 14 was the breadth signal. CPI on May 13 was the data signal. Friday's bond selloff was the repricing. The equity market hit all-time highs Thursday despite all of this — then caught up Friday.
The question Friday raises: was Thursday a blow-off top or a pause before continuation? The system answers with structure — not prediction. NVDA's post-earnings session sets the answer.
Forward implication: the 10-year is now the governing variable for equity valuations. More important than VIX. More important than oil. More important than any headline except NVDA earnings.
The Iran Week — Ceasefire on Life Support
Trump called the ceasefire "on life support" and "unbelievably weak." Both sides traded fire in Hormuz repeatedly. The third round of Washington talks Thursday described as "productive" by the State Department. WTI rose above $103 — up 8% for the week. IEA warned Hormuz flows are down 4 million bpd and the market could remain materially undersupplied through October.
Iran's parliament proposed a fee-based traffic management plan — commercial vessels cooperating with Iran can transit, others cannot. This is Iran attempting to convert the closed strait into a revenue stream while maintaining leverage. It is not a reopening.
Trump was in Beijing Friday meeting Xi Jinping. Xi gets 40% of China's energy through Hormuz. China has leverage over Iran that the US does not. Any signal from Xi that China will pressure Iran to reopen the strait drops WTI $10–15 in a session.
Forward implication: the ceasefire expires today. Either it extends and talks continue — oil stays $95–105, pressure but manageable. Or it collapses and operations resume — oil spikes above $115, regime resets. The system's answer to both is the same: wait for price to confirm. Do not position before the outcome arrives.
The Big Picture
Regime 1 intact. Degraded. Score 83, drifting lower. Largest single-week deterioration since launch.
The names that held structure are the only names worth considering. NVDA, AVGO, ARM each tested their 20 EMA during the week and held. That is the institutional tell.
Two things resolve this week: NVDA earnings May 20 and the Iran ceasefire today. Both are binary. The regime score recovers or deteriorates based on their outcomes.
A missed trade is not an error. A bad entry is.
Patience is productive, not passive.
The plan is conditional on triggers. If any condition is unclear — no trade.
MONDAY MORNING EXECUTION CHECKLIST
Read this last. Execute this first.
Regime score: 83. Degraded. Two positions open. NVDA earnings May 20 — no adds this week.
CRISIS CARD
Do nothing for the first 30 minutes. Let the market set the level.
Iran ceasefire collapses → Cash 80%+. All new entries suspended. Apply stops. NVDA disappoints May 20 → Evaluate all semiconductor positions against stops. Regime drops toward 78. 10-year breaks above 4.70% → Reduce new entries. Increase cash toward 20%. Any condition unclear → Stand aside. Cash is a position.
If pressure is high → follow Crisis Card only.
-
Before anything else — check Iran ceasefire status and any Trump-Xi Hormuz statement.
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Apply Monday Filter. Three questions. Any No = no trade.
-
NVDA: Hold. Free trade. Stop below 20 EMA ($201.60). No adds before May 20. No exceptions.
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AVGO: Hold. Stop $399. Week low $404.80 held. No adds.
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ARM: Holds above $210 with volume contraction → 20 EMA entry consideration. Loses $210 → watch 10 EMA.
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AMD: 50% entry on pullback toward 20 EMA. Add second 50% post-NVDA confirmation only.
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INTC: No entry. No action.
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ALGM: Zone $43–45 valid. Apply full intra-zone trigger on next qualified touch.
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FICO: Hold half-size. No add until June FOMC and subsequent CPI deceleration.
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MXL: Watch only.
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Wednesday May 21: NVDA post-earnings. Do not trade the announcement. Wait for the post-earnings session to set structure.
-
If any condition is unclear — no trade.
SYSTEM RULES — ACTIVE ON EVERY TRADE
→ Stop is set at entry and never moves against the position.
→ 0.5% risk is the target at entry. Gap risk can expand realized loss. Size as if the gap can double the loss.
→ Position size does not expand when multiple signals align.
→ Entry does not remove uncertainty. Conditions must continue to hold.
→ Price contradicts the thesis → price is correct.
→ No action on headlines alone. Price confirmation required first.
→ If any condition is unclear, the default action is no trade.
System Anchor
We are not buying what is cheapest. We are buying what has stopped going down first — or what is breaking out cleanly with structure.
Patience is productive, not passive.
Conditions define. Triggers act.
One setup at a time. One decision at a time.
Next Sunday May 25 — Conditions & Triggers Issue #4: NVDA earnings verdict. Iran ceasefire status. 10-year trajectory. Full position report.
DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or financial planning guidance. All closing prices verified across Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, TradingEconomics, CNBC as of Friday May 15, 2026: S&P 500 7,408.50 · Dow 49,526.17 · Nasdaq 26,225.15 · Russell 2000 2,793.30 · VIX 18.43 · WTI ~$103 · Gold $4,561.90 · 10Y 4.595% · 30Y 5.121%. Watchlist Friday closes: AVGO $425.19 · NVDA $225.32 · ARM $209.16 · INTC $108.77 · ALGM $43.10 · MXL $92.34 · FICO $1,098.59. NVDA entry $200.35, AVGO entry $420.00 per confirmed fills. ALGM no trigger per system rules. April CPI 3.8% per BLS May 13, 2026. Kevin Warsh Fed Chair as of May 14, 2026. Iran ceasefire status per CNN, NBC News, Fox News, CBS News, Al Jazeera as of Saturday May 17, 2026. WTI +8% weekly per TradingEconomics. IEA Hormuz flow data per TradingEconomics May 15, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments carry risk of loss. Do your own research. Trade your own capital.
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