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Thursday 7 April 2022

"FYI"

Since the Fed minutes delivered on Apr 6, the CME Fed Fund Futures is now pricing in 9 more 25 bps rate hikes this year with a 77% chance of a 50 bps hike at their next meeting in May. The Fed indicated it plans to run off $60 billion in Treasurys and $35 billion in mortgage backed securities each month, above estimates of $70-90 billion in total, but could work its way up to its target "over a period of 3 months or modestly longer if market conditions warrant." All of the above suggest the Fed will not be reversing their hawkish stance anytime soon, so if you are exposed to the long side of stocks or cryptocurrencies, keep your stops tight.

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