"Recap July 31"

Stocks took a tumble with the S&P 500 finishing red by more than 1%, but well off its worst levels of the day.  The Treasury curve saw notable flattening, with the two-year yield rising two basis points and the long bond dropping five, and gold lost more than 1% to settle at $1,416 an ounce.  The VIX jumped to more than 16 and is up 33% so far this week.

Earlier today, the July Chicago PMI collapsed to 44.4, its worst reading since Dec. 2015. 

"The ISM-Chicago Business Survey, a regional view of the national economy, is a time-tested, market-moving report. The CHICAGO Report is available to subscribers 3 minutes before its release to the public 8:45 a.m. CT on the last working day each month. The Chicago Business Barometer, summarizing current business activity, also is known as Chicago Purchasing Manager Index or Chicago PMI. The Barometer is considered to be a leading indicator of the USA economy."

"We mustn’t give up. Ever.”

“How much of what I know, what I’ve been culturally attuned to believe, feels like the set of a play on a strange stage I’ve wandered onto without knowing why I’m here. I don’t know the lines, I don’t know what part I’m playing, I don’t even know what the play’s about or what it’s called. I’m just here onstage, stuck in a dream, lights shining in my eyes. Is anyone out there watching? The play stumbles ahead, feels like artifice, mistakes, frippery, an endless series of false starts, bad assumptions, all the while shadowed with the constant horror that something unforeseen could drop down on me from above or lurch in from the wings at any moment, that the floor could open beneath me and instantly erase even this small, pitiful existence, put out the lights for good...There’s only one redeeming feeling I can cling to...when it’s all stripped away and you realise you’re the only one who can put the pieces of yourself together, by yourself, alone...I’m noticing it has a tendency to focus and sharpen the mind, and strengthen the will to live constantly with all my senses wide-open to the here and now. One clear idea emerges from that crucible...We mustn’t give up. Ever.” - Mark Frost in Twin Peaks: The Final Dossier

"Recap July 26"

Another blistering rally left the S&P 500 higher by nearly 2% for the week and 21% year-to-date, as the bulls can seemingly do no wrong at the moment.  Gold managed to eke out a modest gain and WTI crude held at $56 a barrel, and Treasury yields inched lower.  The VIX closed just above 12, its lowest weekly finish since April. 

"Recap July 25"

Stocks lost ground, with the S&P 500 falling 50 basis points to narrow its gains for the week to less than 1% with one session remaining.  The VIX popped back toward 14 and gold extended its recent pullback to sink to $1,415 an ounce while WTI crude held at $56 a barrel. Treasurys came under notable pressure, with the 10-year yield rising back to 2.08%.

"Who has a lot of money, can speculate. Who has little money, must not speculate. Who has no money, has to speculate."

A decent day for stocks with a weak opening that lasted until mid-day when buyers came in and bid stocks up filling the morning’s gap down. Most stocks closed positively with Chip stocks leading the way with huge gains on negative earnings from last year this time. This usually doesn’t last long as shorts are covering en masse as they are trapped at these levels.

"In your search for the secret of the method, do not look for a miracle, because you will not find it. You will find only the eternal laws of nature."

The trend is still up , no hedges on.

"Recap July 19"

Stocks came under pressure, with the S&P 500 finishing the week with a 1.1% decline. While Treasury yields rose with the short end under performing as expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut largely evaporated. This afternoon’s news that Iran seized a British oil tanker in the Straight of Hormuz spurred a bounce in oil prices with WTI rising above $56 a barrel, while gold pulled back more than 1% to finish at $1,425 an ounce.  The VIX finished at 14.25, the high of the day.

"Recap July 17"

Stocks came under pressure, with the S&P 500 finishing at session lows to extend its losses for the week to 1% so far. Treasurys caught a sharp bid, with the 10-year yield dropping back below 2.05%. Energy and metals prices saw a notable divergence.

Make a note that stocks opened strong and stayed that way for a few hours yesterday and then they started to fade for the rest of the day with just a few holding gains such as Amazon, Facebook and Beyond Meat.

Enjoy the ride!

                                             The trend is up, no hedges on.

Interest rate futures continue to price 100% odds of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting on July 31.

Stocks edged lower for a second straight session today and today was the second lowest volume day of the year on NYSE.

“Optimistic people tend to succeed not simply because they believe everything will turn out right, but because the expectation of success makes them work harder. If you expect little, you will not be motivated even to try.”

"Recap July 1"

Risk appetite reigned, as an announced “trade truce” from this weekend’s G-20 meeting in Osaka helped the S&P 500 reach a fresh record close, while WTI crude edged back to $59 a barrel.  By the same token, Treasury yields rose across the curve, gold got smacked by 2% to finish at $1,384 an ounce, and the VIX fell to 14, its lowest close in nearly two months.   

                                              I miss my girl, Moonshine.

Start of a new quarter.

Best June performance for SP-500 since 1955, and the best DJ-30 performance for the month of June since 1938.