"Velocity begets more velocity."

During the bear markets of 2000-2003 and 2007-2008 the Fed was lowering rates. Now in this 2022 bear market the Fed is raising rates and that's the major difference that has the potential to create all sorts of unintended and unexpected consequences.

Historically speaking..........

"The weakest time of the year for the S&P 500 has been from September 6 to October 25."

Under most circumstances, the markets will be either readable or reliable.

"We registered blow off volume around the lows (1) then got some nice upside confirmation volume during the subsequent rally (2) however, better than 10:1 up vs. down volume came back into the market last week (3); an indication that institutions were using strength to sell into."

"During the 2000 bear market the NASDAQ rallied 40%, 28%, 41%, 50% and 36%." All of them nothing more than bear market rallies with very few stock working from breakouts.

Markets trying to rally but breadth pretty crummy. Been a while since we've seen that.

 to help you visualize

Another thought-provoking chart.

 

 

                                                                

If the economy avoids a recession, then the current decline is approaching the avrage for both time and price.

 

As ugly as the market has been, at this stage it's time to get off the indexes and focus on leading stocks. The best names ALWAYS bottom BEFORE the averages. Now is the time to START looking for names that will lead the next bull market which will for certain to follow this correction.

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Going back to 1932 there were three other times when the market started the year down more than 20% and in each of the subseqent years the market closed higher than it had ended in June. Like 1962.
 

What will be the new leadership ?

"You're not trying to be the first one on board; rather, you're looking for where momentum is picking up and the risk of failure is relatively low."

This is a bounce in a bear market and it can last for a few days to as long as a few weeks. Whenever you have durration corrections in bear markets, it takes long to bottom. Not entering rrsp now as this could fail Better to wait for confirmation. Compound from a higher equity base.

Don't forget to enjoy the ride.

 

Put things into perspective, we are only thirteen days off the bear market lows.

bears are out and feeding

The key now is how well and how many stocks can hold up while the market sells off.

What is your edge? It's your ability to apply your strategy and make it work for you. You are your real edge.

You have to have a profitable method and a consistant aproach to the markets, but you know you are your real edge and that first and foremost you have to take care of yourself. 

In your business/trading plan:"Include a provision that will keep you from trading if outside circumstances create an unusual stress", such as health, divorce, or a major move. You might as well just write check out of your trading account and kiss it goodbuy. This is a hard thing to recognize before it is to late. People LOSE money during times of ten major stresses: death, taxes, divorce, moving, health.....you get the point. Trading is a performance oriented discipline. If you can't perform well, cancel the show..... If a tenis player severly sprains his ankle, he cancels the match. Why do damage to your ratings? Why mar your statistical record with sub-optimal performance? Markets will always be there!