"It's interesting that everything is up today as the dollar tanks [except] oil, and some oil related stocks. That's because investors do not expect actual economic growth that would require more energy, just more stimulus that pumps up asset prices as it sedates the real economy"

What price action to expect after the Election ?

One scenario is for the market to rally after the election. Why? There are three reasons:

• If Biden wins, people can expect a large stimulus package.
• If Trump wins, people can expect favorable business policies to continue.
• Regardless of who wins, everyone will be relieved that it is all over and buy the market.

In summary, there are plenty of cross-currents at this time. The bulls have been wounded but are not dead just yet. However, a close below 3200 by SP-500 would be very negative and would reinforce the bears hold on the market.

Anything is possible.

 Now the only remaining near-term support area is at 3200. If that gives way, a pattern of lower highs and lower lows will be in place, and that is the mark of a bear market. That would be a game- changer.

The market continues to be bullish and it will continue to be bullish as long as the SP-500 continues to close above 3400.

"At first, I thought that intelligence was reality and price the appearance, but after a while I saw that price is the reality and intelligence is the appearance."

 TRADING 

A history of bull markets.

Based on history, this bull market is still in it's early stage. With Fed's commitment to low rates and aggressive support to the economy, corrections are buyable cyclical events within a secular bull market.

The S&P-500 chart is bullish and the market is strong for now, but it looks like it's waiting for its stimulus check. Stimulus has become the new drug and the search for a fix continues.

This pullback seems normal, so far, and the bullish case is still intact as long as SP-500 remains above 3400.

"A SIMPLE FORMULA FOR LIVING"

1. Live beneath your means.
2. Return everything you borrow.
3. Stop blaming other people.
4. Admit it when you make a mistake.
5. Give clothes not worn to charity.
6. Do something nice and try not to get caught.
7. Listen more; talk less.
8. Every day take a 30 min. walk.
9. Strive for excellence, not perfection.
10. Be on time. Don't make excuses.
11. Don't argue.
12. Get organized.
13. Be kind to unkind people.
14. Let someone cut ahead of you in line.
15. Take time to be alone.
16. Cultivate good manners.
17. Be humble.
18. Realize and accept that life isn't fair.
19. Know when to keep your mouth shut.
20. Go an entire day without criticizing anyone.
21. Learn from the past. Plan for the future.
22. Live in the present.
23. Don't sweat the small stuff. It's all small stuff.

In summary, equities are looking much improved across the board although running a bit rich and considering the massive upthrust it could continue or work off its overbought reading by treading water. Of course, if there is a contested election it all could become unhinged. Stay tuned!

Value stocks beat growth last month for the first time in a year. Will this trend last ?

Some people think this trend could last. They think if Democrats win, that will lead to more fiscal spending, which would help cheaper stocks, and higher taxes, which would hurt growth stocks, like big tech.

There is no way to know how this is going to play out.

The main "line in the sand", at 3300 is still in place. A close above resistance, at 3430 would be bullish for the SP-500 chart and for stocks in general. On the other hand, if SPs were to close below 3300, then the bears would have the upper hand.

What do you need to do to win the 4th quarter ?

 "When you experience someone else’s genius work, a little part of you feels, 'That’s what I could have, would have, and should have done!'

Someone else did it. You didn’t. They fought the resistance. You gave in to distractions. They made it top priority. You said you’d get to it some day. They took the time. You meant to.

When this happens, you can take it two ways: You could let that part of you give up. 'Oh well. Now I don’t need to make that anymore.' Or you could do something about that jealous pain. Shut off your phone, kill the distractions, make it top priority, and spend the time.

It takes many hours to make what you want to make. The hours don’t suddenly appear. You have to steal them from comfort."

End of the quarter.

"Stuck in the middle with you"

Where does the market go from here ?

Technically we have broken the support and the SP-500 chart is negative as we have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, but...

Should stocks continue lower, Fed will most likely step in with accelerated levels of quantitative easing as they always have since the financial crash of 2008. But even if they don't, Trump can ultimately unlock $300 billion of unused stimulus without congressional approval if need be as he did in early August. During a news conference on September 4, Trump said another $300 billion in unused stimulus aid could be provided if Congress doesn't vote to redirect those funds.

Warning state.

                                                          If the Fed gives up, not good.

Sentiment over SPs

SP-500 closing price below 3300 should be significant, especially on a close below 3280. Unless there is such a breakdown, the SP-500 chart can still be considered to be bullish.

 

The state of the stock market.

From a technical standpoint, the market was extremely over-bought (and continues to be), so a pullback like this is very normal. There are plenty of non-normal things about the market right now, but a rapid pullback after a rapid rise is not one of them. If the pullback keeps going it could turn into another story, but it’s not there yet.

Until SP-500 breaks support at 3280, the SP chart will not be bearish.  If we break support, then a more severe downside move will most likely to follow.

If we don't hold today's low then "all bets are off", but if we do, possible blow-off top is next, stay alert.

"Theory of Reflexivity states that investors don't base decisions on reality, but rather on their perception of reality. The actions that result from these perceptions have an impact on reality which then affects investors' perceptions and thus prices."

Nasdaq exploring new high ground.

Nasdaq rallies into new high ground, but fewer and fewer stocks are supporting the rally. The % of Nasdaq stocks above their own 50-dma has been diverging as it did before market pullbacks in February 2019 and March 2020. "This suggests you should sell into a melt up"