Some people think this trend could last. They think if Democrats win, that will lead to more fiscal spending, which would help cheaper stocks, and higher taxes, which would hurt growth stocks, like big tech.
trading
Tuesday 6 October 2020
Sunday 4 October 2020
There is no way to know how this is going to play out.
The main "line in the sand", at 3300 is still in place. A close above resistance, at 3430 would be bullish for the SP-500 chart and for stocks in general. On the other hand, if SPs were to close below 3300, then the bears would have the upper hand.
Thursday 1 October 2020
What do you need to do to win the 4th quarter ?
"When you experience someone else’s genius work, a little part of you feels, 'That’s what I could have, would have, and should have done!'
Someone else did it. You didn’t. They fought the resistance. You gave in to distractions. They made it top priority. You said you’d get to it some day. They took the time. You meant to.
When this happens, you can take it two ways: You could let that part of you give up. 'Oh well. Now I don’t need to make that anymore.' Or you could do something about that jealous pain. Shut off your phone, kill the distractions, make it top priority, and spend the time.
It takes many hours to make what you want to make. The hours don’t suddenly appear. You have to steal them from comfort."
Wednesday 30 September 2020
Sunday 27 September 2020
Where does the market go from here ?
Monday 21 September 2020
Sunday 20 September 2020
Friday 11 September 2020
The state of the stock market.
From a technical standpoint, the market was extremely over-bought (and continues to be), so a pullback like this is very normal. There are plenty of non-normal things about the market right now, but a rapid pullback after a rapid rise is not one of them. If the pullback keeps going it could turn into another story, but it’s not there yet.
Until SP-500 breaks support at 3280, the SP chart will not be bearish. If we break support, then a more severe downside move will most likely to follow.
Wednesday 9 September 2020
Thursday 3 September 2020
Tuesday 1 September 2020
Nasdaq exploring new high ground.
Nasdaq rallies into new high ground, but fewer and fewer stocks are supporting the rally. The % of Nasdaq stocks above their own 50-dma has been diverging as it did before market pullbacks in February 2019 and March 2020. "This suggests you should sell into a melt up"
Sunday 30 August 2020
The path of least resistance is to the upside.
Thursday 27 August 2020
Wednesday 26 August 2020
Are you ready for tomorrow ?
Thursday, August 27. tomorrow at 6:10 AM PST, Chairman Powell will release a speech addressing the new policy framework for the Fed from a virtual Jackson Hole central bank meeting. This event has the potential to move market considerably--both up and down--if certain topics are addressed or not addressed.
Last week shortly after the release of the FOMC minutes, many of the markets that had demonstrably rallied (precious metals, Euro etc.) sold off sharply. The ostensible reason was the circumspect lines in the minutes vis-a-vis a the Fed's feelings towards a Yield Curve Control policy. None of this should have come as a surprise to markets but it highlights the chance for some intraday volatility and how the general lack of liquidity in the markets now can create some fireworks.
The trigger for a sell off tomorrow in gold and risk assets will be if Powell's speech inexplicably fails to address the openness of the Fed has to an inflation overshoot.
The base case for most market participants is the Fed comes out and acknowledges their chronic failure to reach their inflation target of 2 percent, and that letting inflation run above this for some reasonable/unspecified time as deemed appropriate/consistent with the incoming data is wholly consistent with their mandate/new framework.
There is the possibility Powell's speech talks about more QE being needed and I think such mention could send the algos buying gold, however, the takeway I'm looking for is what can be gleaned in terms of how long the overshoot lasts.
Sunday 23 August 2020
In summary, SP's still look positive, that is the most important market indicator, and if SP-500 doesn't break support at 3200 the price trend will remain higher. So, there is no panic, SP-500 is trading around all time highs and it's all good for now, but you better be very observant next 4 to 6 weeks.
Friday 21 August 2020
Wednesday 19 August 2020
Saturday 15 August 2020
Friday 14 August 2020
"A few things you need to achieve exceptional results"
1) Quantity: You take lots of shots.
2) Quality: You take thoughtful shots.
3) Consistency: You keep shooting for a long time.
4) Feedback. You take better shots over time.
5) Luck: You get a few favorable bounces.