trading
Wednesday 13 May 2020
Sunday 10 May 2020
Forward looking assets can look beyond weak fundamentals, not commodities.
QQQ - Technically in an uptrend and looks like only C-virus can stop it
DBC - trying to find a bottom, we'll see if there is pent up demand and as the world opens up can some commodities benefit.
Friday 8 May 2020
Wednesday 6 May 2020
S&P's banking ETF
watching if KRE will give us some clues about the market today, if it goes and stays below 35 get defensive, above 37 and rally is not over yet
Tuesday 5 May 2020
Monday 4 May 2020
Saturday 2 May 2020
Thursday 30 April 2020
Today marks the end to a historic month.
From the month's low close on April 1 to today's before market open levels, the SPY is up more than 20%. In that same period, more than 85% of the SPY's gains occurred from the gap opens. And through yesterday, the SPY had gapped higher by at least 40 points for six straight days. Markets always evolve and unique behavior is normal and natural - but this month's overnight action is unforgettable.
It looks like the argument you can't pump $10 trillion in fiscal and monetary policy actions without generating higher stock prices is winning.
Monday 27 April 2020
This market has nothing to do with Fed liquidity. It's been driven by illiquidity. Almost every night for a month, the day's price has been set by a small number of transactions in the futures market at the least liquid time of night.
hourly view
The S&P is up double digits this month, however, most of the action occurred at night. Month-to-date, we’ve had just one day that traded more than 10 points on either side of unchanged and today was yet another gap that remained on that side of unchanged for the day.
Friday 24 April 2020
...nobody should be under the perception that [commodity futures] can't go below zero...We've seen other commodities go below zero in the past...We have to do things to allow the market to go to a price [that] is reflecting the fundamentals of the product...The futures market worked to perfection...small retail investors...need to make sure they understand the rules... - CME
Why can’t wine prices go below zero ?
Wednesday 22 April 2020
"In bull markets stocks don't go down on bad news."
For the SP 500, today was the 9th day in the past 10 days, the day session gaped and remained on that side of unchanged. That has NEVER happened before. We've seen 8 of 10 but never 9 of 10. The interesting part is we've gone nowhere in the 10 days and are right in the middle of that range.
Tuesday 21 April 2020
Monday 20 April 2020
Thursday 16 April 2020
Spying the SPY
This is a bearish formation, but if we don't break down and go sideways for a while, then it's possible we can go higher from here.
Saturday 11 April 2020
Friday 10 April 2020
“For all those against reopening the country until things are perfectly safe please educate yourself on what happened in the Great Depression. I have, you will be surprised at the death and destruction that came about, much greater than Covid 19 damage could be. Disease, starvation, suicide, family destruction, abuse, drug addiction and lost dreams. The mental depression and lost souls were staggering.”
Tuesday 7 April 2020
Dow rallied 25% of the lows.
In 1929 the market rallied 50% before resuming downward in a secular bear market.
, but
"If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians."
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