The Trader

"Recap June 4"

Remarks from Fed chairman Jerome Powell that the FOMC “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” helped spur a steep rally in stocks, as the S&P 500 gained 2% and the tech-heavy NYSE FANG+ Index enjoyed a 4% rebound.  But Treasury yields also jumped across the curve after a sharp recent rally, perhaps suggesting that today’s action was more of a bounce off recent moves than a sea-change in investor perception.

"TRADING AND INVESTING ARE VERY DIFFERENT ACTIVITIES"

It is important to be clear about the differences between the two.
"Trading" is simply the exchange of money for an asset, an exchange made with the clear and definite intent or hope of later trading that asset back for more money. Since these assets are bought to be sold rather than bought to be owned, what they happen to be is essentially immaterial.
"Investing," on the other hand, is the purchase of an asset without any pre-intent to sell. Family businesses, cabins at a lake or in the mountains, cottages at the seashore, fine art and jewelry, collections of any kind (stamps, coins, etc.)—assets such as these tend to be investments. They are not bought with the sole intent of selling or trading them later. They are bought to be used and possessed. Consequently, what they are is all important.
Traders are not confused about what they do; they trade. They trade money for positions (in a market), and then later trade those positions back for more or less money. However, some self-described investors tend to mistakenly believe they are making investments, when in reality they are simply making long-term trades. The truth is that many selfdescribed "investors" are actually just long-term traders. Assets bought to be sold are trades, not investments.
An individual truly investing in the stock market should, regardless of the size of the investment (one share or a hundred million shares), act as if he or she were buying the entire company as a family business. This approach to buying stocks might be called the Warren Buffet style of investing. When Mr. Buffet buys shares in a company, he always acts as if he were buying the entire company and planning on it becoming the family business for generations to come, although he might sell these shares at any time.
Conversely, some traders mistakenly act as if they are investors, when in reality they are merely intermediate-term or long-term traders, meaning they waste time and energy worrying about the supposed underlying value of the asset they are trading. As a result they focus too much on whether the price is "high" or "low." This is a waste of time and energy, because from a trader's perspective the whole concept of "value" is essentially meaningless. In free markets, prices can always go higher or lower than current levels, regardless of any perceived or supposed "value." The concept of high and low (i.e., value) essentially does not exist in trading.
Traders need to focus on price movement and should not get distracted by "value." Investors, on the other hand, should focus on value and not be too distracted by short-term price movement. For traders it is price movement that counts, not price location ("high" or "low"). When trading, regardless of the time frame, it is higher and lower that are significant, not high or low.
So, be clear about what you are doing—trading or investing—and act accordingly.

The trend is still down, full hedges on.

                                     PPT just got assassinated...…...hit job.

In this game, the game of life, and trading, what separates the winners from the losers is the ability to see the need to make an adjustment, the discipline to do so, and a willingness to follow through.

                                                              Ninja hunting

                                                         QQQ's in downtrend

SPY now !

                                          The trend is still down, full hedges on.

The trend is still down, full hedges on, risk off.

Moonshine

                                                       

    RIP Moonshine

She enjoyed her long and good life to the fullest. 

August 2003. to May 24, 2019.

How much is the world worth ?

The trend is still down, full hedges on, risk off.

The trend turned down. Full hedges on.

           

                                                    Taking risk off for now.

The trend is still hanging up, but the half hedge triggered and is on now.

                                                     Keep your stops tight.

Recap May 3 ~ Enjoy the ride.

"Stocks snapped higher following a stronger than expected reading of April non-farm payrolls, with the S&P 500 gaining near 1% to edge back into positive territory for the week.  That broad index is up 17.5% year-to-date.

Elsewhere, Treasury yields ticked lower with the 10-year settling at 2.53%, while oil managed to buck bearish commodity price action with WTI finishing near $62 a barrel.  The VIX shed nearly 10% to fall back towards 13."

                                           The trend is still up, no hedges on.

Are you too complacent?

When it comes to trading “if you don’t know who you are, then what you know doesn’t matter."

"The Market As A Guide"

Interestingly, as we have observed a number of times, even though major averages may move higher, it does not mean any new high quality names become actionable. Always keep that in mind when running your own screens and wondering why you might not see any entry points in your favorite stocks. Patience is always essential, thus best not to force your portfolio into stocks especially if the entry points are not there. 

"One Picture Worth Ten Thousand Words"

Gold Funnymentals

Highlights

"Central banks added 651.5t to official gold reserves in 2018, the second highest yearly total on record. Net purchases jumped to their highest since the end of US dollar convertibility into gold in 1971, as a greater pool of central banks turned to gold as a diversified.

Annual jewellery demand was virtually unmoved: down just 1t from 2017. Gains in China, the US and Russia broadly offset sharp losses in the Middle East. Indian demand was stable at 598t (-4t).  

ETFs and similar products saw annual inflows of 68.9t down from 206.4t in 2017. Stock market volatility and signs of faltering economic growth in key markets fuelled a global Q4 recovery, but Europe was the only region to see net growth over the year. 

Retail investment in gold bars and coins posted annual growth of 4%. Coin demand surged to reach a five-year high of 236.4t, the second highest on record. Demand for gold bars held steady at 781.6t, the fifth year in succession of holding in a firm 780-800t range.

2018 saw marginal gains in the volume of gold used in technology, crimped by Q4 slowdown. After healthy gains during Q1-Q3, a combination of slowing smartphone sales, the trade war and mounting uncertainty over global economic growth, contributed to a 5% decline in Q4." 

Recap April 22

The wind is slowing down. "Stocks erased early losses to finish little changed in very light trading, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF saw just 38 million shares change hands, the lowest volume session since August and less than half of the one-year average daily turnover of 86 million shares.   A strong day for oil headlined the commodity action, with WTI crude approaching $66 a barrel on news the Trump administration will reportedly end sanctions waivers for Iranian exports.  Treasurys sold off, with the 10-year yield rising three basis points to 2.58%, and the VIX gave back most of its early gains to finish below 12.5."

Enjoy your family and friends. Have a great long weekend.

                                              The trend is still up, no hedges on.

Sometimes you just have to take profits. Sold most of the stocks into strength.

Recap April 12. ~ No worries.

                                           The trend is still up, no hedges on.