Thucydides (thu-cid-did-dees) was an Athenian general. While he was born in Athens,
his family was from a town in northern Greece called Thrace. There, Thucydides owned
gold mines. And those mines provided him with the money that gave him time to pursue
his real passion: history. Thucydides lived from 400 to 460 BC. In 424 BC, he was given
command of an Athenian fleet, but his command was short-lived. Because of a strategic
failure, Thucydides was exiled from Athens for more than 20 years. It was during that
time, and after, that he chronicled almost 30 years of the famous conflict between
Athens and Sparta in a manuscript titled History of the Peloponnesian War. Because of
that book, Thucydides became known as the “father of scientific history.” Thucydides
knew that the war between Athens and Sparta would be more than a simple skirmish, so
he started writing about it almost as soon as it broke out. Indeed, the war lasted a
staggering 27 years. As you may know, Sparta won the war, thanks in part to the
financing it received from Persia.
Thucydides and the Peloponnesian War are fascinating subjects. But what’s even more
interesting is the larger picture. Before the Peloponnesian War, Athens was a
superpower of sorts, and, it quickly regained that status about 30 years after the end of
the war. But the point is not who won the war. What’s important to understand
is that Sparta was a rising power on an unavoidable collision course with Athens. And
the Peloponnesian War is just one example of these types of rising power/super
power conflicts. As Harvard scholar Graham Allison points out in his excellent book
Destined for War, this kind of conflict has happened many times over the last 500
years – sixteen times, to be exact. Among those conflicts are World War I
and World War II, of course. But there were 10 others. Twelve of those 16 conflicts
ended in catastrophic wars. Allison says that in many cases those wars were
unavoidable. They are inherent whenever a rising power threatens to surpass an
existing superpower. He calls it the Thucydides Trap. And now, Allison believes the US
and China may well be caught in Thucydides’ Trap, too. They may be destined for a war
that neither wants but neither can avoid. Eventually all it takes is a spark to set off the
war. Often the spark comes from a completely separate third party.
In World War I, that spark was the assassination of the archduke of the
Austro-Hungarian Empire. What will the spark between the US and China be?
It could be Taiwan or Hong Kong. Or even the escalating trade war.
But is there really that much tension between the US and China? Consider that the
20th century was known as the Golden Century for the US. Yet it was known as the
Century of Humiliation for China. Allison also reminds us that the Chinese ruled Asia for
4,000 years, so they are used to being #1. In fact, the Mandarin word for China means
“center of the universe.” And yet, don’t most people in the US believe the US is #1?
There simply can’t be two #1s. While Trump has vowed to make America great again,
Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed to make China great again long before Trump was
in office. Part of President Xi’s strategy is complete, authoritarian control. We know that
didn’t work so well for Russia, and we believe that market economies work better than
centralised control. But China has some things going for it that Russia never had. China
is a big enough market that American companies are clamoring to do business there.
Yet even as they do business, China steals their intellectual property. The Chinese don’t
have to innovate when they can replicate. Plus, China can make things happen fast,
because it plays by its own rules. The president is like a corporate CEO. A democracy
may trip over itself trying to get things done, but Jinping’s agenda gets implemented
quickly because there is no one to stand in its way. While it might take five years to
build a railroad in the US, a similar project gets built in five months in China. That’s why,
according to Allison, 40% of the world’s total growth since 2008 has come from China.
Yes, China is moving full steam ahead. What do you think, does that make war with the US inevitable?
trading
Sunday 21 October 2018
Wednesday 17 October 2018
History in the making; Marijuana is officially legal in Canada !
Buying and using recreational cannabis is legal as of today, October 17, 2018, and Canadians are already making purchases online and in retail stores across the country.
Thursday 11 October 2018
Wednesday 10 October 2018
Tuesday 9 October 2018
Thursday 4 October 2018
If you can't make money trading, all you have to do is change the rules.
Some of the best stock traders in the world are now over 90 % in cash. What are you doing?
Thursday 27 September 2018
Wednesday 26 September 2018
'The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself.'
Most people don't design their lives and the results are clear for everyone to see--most people are merely average. You don't need to settle for average. You don't need to accept your life for what it is. Because the choice to change is up to you.
Monday 24 September 2018
As rates continue to rise, it is no surprise, a number of financial stocks are going higher. Higher Treasury yields can give a boost to bank earnings, because that can increase the spread between what the banks make on longer-term assets and what they pay for shorter-term liabilities. With rates continuing to rise, banks could further benefit.
Thursday 20 September 2018
Monday 17 September 2018
'Wall of worry is the financial markets’ periodic tendency to surmount a host of negative factors and keep ascending. Wall of worry is generally used in connection with the stock markets, referring to their resilience when running into a temporary stumbling block, rather than a permanent impediment to a market advance.'
Enjoy your wins while they last as always nothing remains too good for too long !
Friday 14 September 2018
Monday 10 September 2018
The U.S. Department of Justice said it would discuss concerns that social media platforms are "intentionally stifling the free exchange of ideas".
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fNBBX48t/
Sunday 9 September 2018
Friday 31 August 2018
Thursday 30 August 2018
'It’s official. By one widely accepted definition, we’re now living through the longest bull market in US history. The S&P 500 marches on, now having gone a record 3,452 consecutive days without declining 20%. That beats the old record-holding bull market that ran from 1990–2000'
The S&P celebrated last week by touching all-time highs for the first time since late
January. Nothing can stop US equities lately: In the last few months they’ve
shrugged off news of trade wars, the Trump investigation, emerging markets
contagion, and a 20% plunge in Facebook (FB).
It’s not just American stocks flexing their muscles. The US dollar is also ripping to
2018 highs, driven by the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening. The Fed
continues to raise interest rates, while most other central banks around the world
are either standing pat or easing.
As Real Vision subscribers know, the dollar is the “key to everything.” Dollars
grease the wheels of global finance. When they are cheap and plentiful, markets
tend to be calm and happy.
But a rapidly rising dollar can cause a lot of pain, as any investor holding emerging
market assets will tell you. Many EM currencies, like the Turkish lira and Brazilian
real, are getting annihilated. EM stocks have been tough to own as well. The
popular ETF VWO has tanked about 20% since January, putting it in official bear
market territory.
The S&P celebrated last week by touching all-time highs for the first time since late
January. Nothing can stop US equities lately: In the last few months they’ve
shrugged off news of trade wars, the Trump investigation, emerging markets
contagion, and a 20% plunge in Facebook (FB).
It’s not just American stocks flexing their muscles. The US dollar is also ripping to
2018 highs, driven by the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening. The Fed
continues to raise interest rates, while most other central banks around the world
are either standing pat or easing.
As Real Vision subscribers know, the dollar is the “key to everything.” Dollars
grease the wheels of global finance. When they are cheap and plentiful, markets
tend to be calm and happy.
But a rapidly rising dollar can cause a lot of pain, as any investor holding emerging
market assets will tell you. Many EM currencies, like the Turkish lira and Brazilian
real, are getting annihilated. EM stocks have been tough to own as well. The
popular ETF VWO has tanked about 20% since January, putting it in official bear
market territory.
The S&P celebrated last week by touching all-time highs for the first time since late
January. Nothing can stop US equities lately: In the last few months they’ve
shrugged off news of trade wars, the Trump investigation, emerging markets
contagion, and a 20% plunge in Facebook (FB).
It’s not just American stocks flexing their muscles. The US dollar is also ripping to
2018 highs, driven by the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening. The Fed
continues to raise interest rates, while most other central banks around the world
are either standing pat or easing.
As Real Vision subscribers know, the dollar is the “key to everything.” Dollars
grease the wheels of global finance. When they are cheap and plentiful, markets
tend to be calm and happy.
But a rapidly rising dollar can cause a lot of pain, as any investor holding emerging
market assets will tell you. Many EM currencies, like the Turkish lira and Brazilian
real, are getting annihilated. EM stocks have been tough to own as well. The
popular ETF VWO has tanked about 20% since January, putting it in official bear
market territory.
The S&P celebrated last week by touching all-time highs for the first time since late
January. Nothing can stop US equities lately: In the last few months they’ve
shrugged off news of trade wars, the Trump investigation, emerging markets
contagion, and a 20% plunge in Facebook (FB).
It’s not just American stocks flexing their muscles. The US dollar is also ripping to
2018 highs, driven by the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening. The Fed
continues to raise interest rates, while most other central banks around the world
are either standing pat or easing.
As Real Vision subscribers know, the dollar is the “key to everything.” Dollars
grease the wheels of global finance. When they are cheap and plentiful, markets
tend to be calm and happy.
But a rapidly rising dollar can cause a lot of pain, as any investor holding emerging
market assets will tell you. Many EM currencies, like the Turkish lira and Brazilian
real, are getting annihilated. EM stocks have been tough to own as well. The
popular ETF VWO has tanked about 20% since January, putting it in official bear
market territory.
Sunday 19 August 2018
Tuesday 14 August 2018
Monday 13 August 2018
Even though Turkey is a small country, with global markets still on tenterhooks economically, could this provoke a domino effect?
With yet another country to face a
currency crisis, this time in Turkey, the European Central Bank is getting
increasingly concerned about the exposure of some banks in the region --
specifically from Spain, Italy and France. Meanwhile, Asian markets are
selling off as the rout spreads. Perhaps Turkey will become another
country to become bitcoinized, much as we have seen over in South
America.
Wednesday 1 August 2018
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