Even though Turkey is a small country, with global markets still on tenterhooks economically, could this provoke a domino effect?

With yet another country to face a currency crisis, this time in Turkey, the European Central Bank is getting increasingly concerned about the exposure of some banks in the region -- specifically from Spain, Italy and France. Meanwhile, Asian markets are selling off as the rout spreads. Perhaps Turkey will become another country to become bitcoinized, much as we have seen over in South America. 

Floored- Into The Pit HQ - Epic Market Trader Movie

"Last Friday, online reports indicated that gunfire had been heard for roughly 40 minutes in Beijing near the Second Ring Road."

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) recently shared the following (emphasis mine):

 

In an opinion piece published on Wednesday by People’s Court Daily, Du Wanhua, deputy director of an advisory committee to the Supreme People’s Court, said that courts needed to be aware of the potential harm the tariff row could cause.

 

“It’s hard to predict how this trade war will develop and to what extent,” he said. “But one thing is sure: if the US imposes tariffs on Chinese imports following an order of US$60 billion yuan, US$200 billion yuan, or even US$500 billion, many Chinese companies will go bankrupt.”

 

As Chinese courts have yet to have any involvement in the trade dispute, the fact that the newspaper of the nation’s top court, ran an opinion piece – for a judiciary-only readership – suggests concerns might be rising in Beijing about the possible socioeconomic implications of the row.

 

There’s also been a number of reports (so far, unverified) over the last few weeks of serious trouble brewing within the party. Geopolitical Futures recently shared this.

 

Last Friday, online reports indicated that gunfire had been heard for roughly 40 minutes in Beijing near the Second Ring Road. The reports claimed it was a violent spasm by groups that sought to overthrow Chinese President Xi Jinping. The following day, French public radio reported it had heard rumours that former Chinese leaders, including Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, had allied with other disgruntled Chinese officials in an attempt to force Xi to step down. A Hong Kong tabloid went so far as to suggest that Wang Yang, chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, might be the compromise leader next in line.

 

It’s impossible for us to know if there’s any truth to these rumours (China keeps a tight lid on these types of things) but just the fact that they’re circulating are indication of growing unease with the state of the Chinese economy. And it may be why we’re seeing this policy 180 by the CCP.

 

We also don’t know if this easing will be enough to reverse the negative trends kicked into gear by the initial deleveraging nor do we know how long and aggressive the CCP will be in this round of easing. All we know for sure is that however they choose to carry out policy will continue to have an outsized impact on markets and the global economy.

 

For our part, we just have to keep a close eye on the data and change up our positioning to account for the new uncertainty created by this shift back to easing.

 

Two important data points we’ll want to watch in order to gauge the scale of the current easing response are fixed asset investment (ie, infrastructure spending) and China’s M1 money supply (which has a close leading correlation to changes in industrial metal pricing).

Are you doing well ?

Trade wars continue.

'Trade wars are never bullish for markets. Any further escalation would be a major headwind for markets along with the future direction of interest rates. The Federal Reserve continues to take a hawkish stance of further rate hikes ahead, but the headroom for higher rates is diminishing, thus QT may have to once again become QE, or worse, an outright devaluation of fiat across a number of currencies based on the long term debt cycle which Ray Dalio of Bridgewater has discussed at length' 

Don't let the summer doldrums lull you into laziness. The trade issues between the US and other countries is liable to worsen before agreements are reached. This could cause a continuation of the current correction which, at just a few percent, has so far been mild.

Do you remember 2000 and 2008 crashes ?

We all remember how painful the 2000 and 2008 crashes were. But in both cases, high-earning boomers kept right on pouring their paychecks into the stock market. This fuelled recoveries, and markets clawed back their big losses to achieve new highs.  
In the coming crash, there will be no rich baby boomers to step in and “buy the dip.”  
Instead, they’ll be retiring by the millions… selling stocks instead of buying.  
If you’re “holding the bag” when it all hits the fan, you’re likely looking at what traders call permanent loss of capital. That means you’ll suffer massive losses that you may never make back.  
The math is clear. Total retirement assets in the U.S. are about $28.2 trillion. The vast majority is owned by boomers who’ll soon be permanently retired.  
Do you know how much the entire U.S. stock market is worth?  
Just under $30 trillion.  
I hope the danger is clear to you.  
A freight train is speeding toward us at 200 miles per hour.  
And right now is our chance to step off the train tracks.  
Ask yourself: can your wealth endure a 60% permanent loss?  
Say you have $200,000 invested in stocks. Will your retirement be OK if the value plummets to $80,000 and takes years and years to recover?  
I think that for a lot of us, the answer is “absolutely not.”  
Look, the coming crash will cause financial hardship for those who don’t see it coming.  
But that doesn’t have to be you.  

While US stocks look unstoppable, the biggest investment bank in Europe looks to be headed for a crisis.

Deutsche Bank (DB), which has failed to make a profit for the past three years, has dropped to new all-time lows. Everything about DB screams disaster. It has lost a stunning 93% of its value since 2008. It’s laying off staff. And US authorities have put it on a list of troubled lenders. As recently as 2007, DB was the second largest bank in the world by assets. Today it ranks nowhere near the top ten. In fact, its market cap has shrunk to a tiny $20 billion.

'The tug-o-war continues.'

The market is faced with three major headwinds: 1) quantitative tightening by the US Federal Reserve, 2) the potential devaluation of fiat within next couple of years, and 3) the potential break up of the EU. This is countered by the near record levels of quantitative easing that continue to flow into US stocks. The tug-o-war continues.

"The gifted are the lucky few who have found something that they’re passionate about. So passionate in fact, that they’re compelled to investigate it whether anyone else is interested or not. Their temperament allows them to spend countless hours and years refining their craft by practicing the things they can’t do simply because that process is the thing they find most enjoyable in life. That’s the gift."

'Ever see a dog chase his tail?'

Contrary to common logic and consensus expectations, Fed rate hikes and balance sheet reduction will only exaggerate budding inflation concerns.
The economy has never experienced a sustained reduction in the monetary base of the magnitude currently underway. The path of QT and higher rates, that the Fed is currently on, will counter-intuitively increase inflation while reducing economic growth.

Separation of $ and State

'Unsurprisingly, global debt still would tower over the value of the cryptospace as it currently stands at $233 trillion, and continues to grow. Indeed, bitcoin should nicely accomplish the separation of money and state much as we have had separation of church and state. This will help put an end to central bank money printing which remains the biggest legalized Ponzi scheme ever. Meanwhile, as the renowned Naval Ravikant has said, "Bitcoin is freeing humanity from corrupt governments, all the while disguised as a Ponzi scheme." 

In the meantime, how do governments unwind the QE-generated debt without undoing the QE-bull market which began in 2009? According to Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio, a major devaluation of fiat currencies is coming within the next few years as quantitative easing has failed to jump start the global economy even after nearly a decade of money printing. The cryptospace is likely to be the primary beneficiary of such a devaluation. Centralized systems which include centralized governments and corporations will pay the ultimate price since decentralized, open source, trustless, p2p, censorship resistant, private, secure protocols will always win over centralized, closed source, third party, insecure platforms'.

Principles for Success: "The Call to Adventure" | Episode 1

I'd like to know how many of you think that the world sits at a major tipping point economically, financially, socially, and politically?

'The brilliance behind blockchain is that governments in their current form are rendered obsolete as the technology eliminates the need for trusted third parties (TTPs). Ed Seykota writes that governments have always controlled by initially reducing then quashing productivity and freedom, and details his point nicely in his book "Govopoly in the 39th Day". 39th day is the analogy to duckweed in pond ecosystems. Duckweed doubles each day so goes unnoticed the first 25 or so days. But by the time it is noticed, it is too late to reverse its course. On the 40th day, duckweed strangles all life in the pond. Seykota equates the current systems of government to being one day away from the 40th day given the beyond onerous levels of regulation, taxation, and unjust rights-crippling laws not just in third world countries but also in first world nations. The world sits at a major tipping point economically, financially, socially, and politically.' 

You have all weekend to think about this, enjoy thinking!

Some people think inflation should not rise going into a recession, but actually the opposite is true.

Is The Bull Market Party Over?

Yes !

The future remains brighter than ever despite of social unrest due to tough economic times around the world

'Satoshi Nakamoto knew that governments and central banks are artificially constructed TTP (trusted third party) monopolies which was the inspiration behind bitcoin when he wrote "“I’ve been working on a new electronic cash system that’s fully peer-to-peer, with no trusted third party.” This is arguably the greatest invention in the history of humanity, not just because it propels existing paradigms into a much higher order of efficiency, but because it frees people from the shackles of government. It therefore comes as no surprise that the migration of top minds from their respective professions into the blockchain space well exceeds the migration witnessed during the internet boom in the 1990s.

The issue at hand is that different systems of government offer varying levels of freedoms but eventually devolve into concentrating power into the hands of the few who then use financial, judicial, and military means to control the many. The US is an oligarchy as is the UK and Canada even though on the surface they say otherwise. Such power structures could not exist under a decentralized form of government. Such decentralized governance would truly empower the individual far greater than any other system of government, past or present. The future remains brighter than ever despite amplified levels of social unrest due to tough economic times around the world'

An important trading session tomorrow.

The second quarter got off to an unpleasant start for the bulls, as the S&P 500 sank by more than 2% to close near the interim lows logged on Feb. 8, setting up an important session tomorrow with either a bounce or fresh lows.

One idea about an edge ?