'The tug-o-war continues.'

The market is faced with three major headwinds: 1) quantitative tightening by the US Federal Reserve, 2) the potential devaluation of fiat within next couple of years, and 3) the potential break up of the EU. This is countered by the near record levels of quantitative easing that continue to flow into US stocks. The tug-o-war continues.

"The gifted are the lucky few who have found something that they’re passionate about. So passionate in fact, that they’re compelled to investigate it whether anyone else is interested or not. Their temperament allows them to spend countless hours and years refining their craft by practicing the things they can’t do simply because that process is the thing they find most enjoyable in life. That’s the gift."

'Ever see a dog chase his tail?'

Contrary to common logic and consensus expectations, Fed rate hikes and balance sheet reduction will only exaggerate budding inflation concerns.
The economy has never experienced a sustained reduction in the monetary base of the magnitude currently underway. The path of QT and higher rates, that the Fed is currently on, will counter-intuitively increase inflation while reducing economic growth.

Separation of $ and State

'Unsurprisingly, global debt still would tower over the value of the cryptospace as it currently stands at $233 trillion, and continues to grow. Indeed, bitcoin should nicely accomplish the separation of money and state much as we have had separation of church and state. This will help put an end to central bank money printing which remains the biggest legalized Ponzi scheme ever. Meanwhile, as the renowned Naval Ravikant has said, "Bitcoin is freeing humanity from corrupt governments, all the while disguised as a Ponzi scheme." 

In the meantime, how do governments unwind the QE-generated debt without undoing the QE-bull market which began in 2009? According to Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio, a major devaluation of fiat currencies is coming within the next few years as quantitative easing has failed to jump start the global economy even after nearly a decade of money printing. The cryptospace is likely to be the primary beneficiary of such a devaluation. Centralized systems which include centralized governments and corporations will pay the ultimate price since decentralized, open source, trustless, p2p, censorship resistant, private, secure protocols will always win over centralized, closed source, third party, insecure platforms'.

Principles for Success: "The Call to Adventure" | Episode 1

I'd like to know how many of you think that the world sits at a major tipping point economically, financially, socially, and politically?

'The brilliance behind blockchain is that governments in their current form are rendered obsolete as the technology eliminates the need for trusted third parties (TTPs). Ed Seykota writes that governments have always controlled by initially reducing then quashing productivity and freedom, and details his point nicely in his book "Govopoly in the 39th Day". 39th day is the analogy to duckweed in pond ecosystems. Duckweed doubles each day so goes unnoticed the first 25 or so days. But by the time it is noticed, it is too late to reverse its course. On the 40th day, duckweed strangles all life in the pond. Seykota equates the current systems of government to being one day away from the 40th day given the beyond onerous levels of regulation, taxation, and unjust rights-crippling laws not just in third world countries but also in first world nations. The world sits at a major tipping point economically, financially, socially, and politically.' 

You have all weekend to think about this, enjoy thinking!

Some people think inflation should not rise going into a recession, but actually the opposite is true.

Is The Bull Market Party Over?

Yes !

The future remains brighter than ever despite of social unrest due to tough economic times around the world

'Satoshi Nakamoto knew that governments and central banks are artificially constructed TTP (trusted third party) monopolies which was the inspiration behind bitcoin when he wrote "“I’ve been working on a new electronic cash system that’s fully peer-to-peer, with no trusted third party.” This is arguably the greatest invention in the history of humanity, not just because it propels existing paradigms into a much higher order of efficiency, but because it frees people from the shackles of government. It therefore comes as no surprise that the migration of top minds from their respective professions into the blockchain space well exceeds the migration witnessed during the internet boom in the 1990s.

The issue at hand is that different systems of government offer varying levels of freedoms but eventually devolve into concentrating power into the hands of the few who then use financial, judicial, and military means to control the many. The US is an oligarchy as is the UK and Canada even though on the surface they say otherwise. Such power structures could not exist under a decentralized form of government. Such decentralized governance would truly empower the individual far greater than any other system of government, past or present. The future remains brighter than ever despite amplified levels of social unrest due to tough economic times around the world'

An important trading session tomorrow.

The second quarter got off to an unpleasant start for the bulls, as the S&P 500 sank by more than 2% to close near the interim lows logged on Feb. 8, setting up an important session tomorrow with either a bounce or fresh lows.

One idea about an edge ?

Today, stocks were hammered, with the S&P 500 breaking to fresh lows into the bell to finish more than 2.5% in the red.

Treasurys were bid across the board to leave yields sharply lower. The dollar trended higher throughout the day to reverse overnight weakness.  The VIX jumped by more than 30%, and settled above 24, its highest close since the immediate aftermath of the short-vol-blowup on Feb. 13. 

The Fed is set to conclude its two-day meeting tomorrow, futures place the odds of a rate hike at 100%.

“Money of the mind is the broadest definition of money. It’s bounded only by the imagination.”

Bitcoin, which traded at less than $1,000 and nearly $20,000 at different points last year, has generally remained in a $7,000 to $11,000 per coin range in recent weeks.  Bloomberg notes that the narrower trading range has coincided with waning public interest:

 

Internet searches for ‘Bitcoin’ have plunged . . . Online searches for ‘bitcoin’ fell 82 percent from December highs, according to Google Trends. Tweets that mention the coin peaked Dec. 7, at 155,600, and are now down to about 63,000, BitInfoCharts says. And the number of bitcoin transactions is off 60 percent from its record on Dec. 13, according to Blockchain.info. 

market observations

While the global economy runs on QE-fumes suggesting growth, the economic engine seems to be, in reality, running on a couple cylinders in great need of an overhaul while central banks continue to pour fuel into the tank hoping for some continued measure of progress. Since 2016, major averages have corrected beyond a few percent just once. The fast bounce back to new highs suggests global QE will win the tug-o-war vs. higher rates in the U.S. 

market observations

Stocks caught a bid, with the S&P 500 extending its gain for the week to 1.8% so far.  Treasury yields ticked lower across the curve, and a stronger greenback pushed the Dollar Index back above 90 as today’s steel and aluminium tariff announcement featured exemptions for Canada and Mexico, as well as the possibility of other countries also getting a waiver. 

$change must begin with reprogramming of the mind$

The S&P 500 closed 6.66% away from the highs yesterday. After today is it 10.2% away and officially in a correction. February 2016 was last time it was in a correction. This is the first time in history the S&P 500 went from a new all-time high to 10% correction in 9 days or less.

Could another bounce in the price of Uncle Sam’s debts be in the cards?

 continuous contract, last 10 years

March T-Bond Futures