The Fed is set to conclude its two-day meeting tomorrow, futures place the odds of a rate hike at 100%.

“Money of the mind is the broadest definition of money. It’s bounded only by the imagination.”

Bitcoin, which traded at less than $1,000 and nearly $20,000 at different points last year, has generally remained in a $7,000 to $11,000 per coin range in recent weeks.  Bloomberg notes that the narrower trading range has coincided with waning public interest:

 

Internet searches for ‘Bitcoin’ have plunged . . . Online searches for ‘bitcoin’ fell 82 percent from December highs, according to Google Trends. Tweets that mention the coin peaked Dec. 7, at 155,600, and are now down to about 63,000, BitInfoCharts says. And the number of bitcoin transactions is off 60 percent from its record on Dec. 13, according to Blockchain.info. 

market observations

While the global economy runs on QE-fumes suggesting growth, the economic engine seems to be, in reality, running on a couple cylinders in great need of an overhaul while central banks continue to pour fuel into the tank hoping for some continued measure of progress. Since 2016, major averages have corrected beyond a few percent just once. The fast bounce back to new highs suggests global QE will win the tug-o-war vs. higher rates in the U.S. 

market observations

Stocks caught a bid, with the S&P 500 extending its gain for the week to 1.8% so far.  Treasury yields ticked lower across the curve, and a stronger greenback pushed the Dollar Index back above 90 as today’s steel and aluminium tariff announcement featured exemptions for Canada and Mexico, as well as the possibility of other countries also getting a waiver. 

$change must begin with reprogramming of the mind$

The S&P 500 closed 6.66% away from the highs yesterday. After today is it 10.2% away and officially in a correction. February 2016 was last time it was in a correction. This is the first time in history the S&P 500 went from a new all-time high to 10% correction in 9 days or less.

Could another bounce in the price of Uncle Sam’s debts be in the cards?

 continuous contract, last 10 years

March T-Bond Futures

The market has gone 18 months without a 5% pullback, the longest in history. At some point, the market will pull back as profit-taking takes over. Until then enjoy the ride.

The US economy is in its third-longest expansion since 1854 and has been growing for eight years and seven months. Another 1.5 years of growth will make the expansion the longest one on record.

Market observations.

The streak is intact.  Stocks rallied from a shallow opening dip to leave the S&P 500 at its fifth straight record close to begin the year, while Treasurys finished little changed across the curve.  Crude oil caught a bid despite a stronger dollar, with WTI crude again testing $62/barrel.  Fourth quarter earnings season will soon get underway, with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. set to report results on Friday. 

"Millions? Than what?" Happy New Year Everyone.

An American tourist was at the pier of a small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked.
Inside the small boat were several large yellowfin tuna. The tourist complimented the Mexican on the quality of his fish and asked how long it took to catch them.
The Mexican replied, “Only a little while.”
The tourist then asked, “Why didn’t you stay out longer and catch more fish?”
The Mexican said, “With this I have more than enough to support my family’s needs.”
The tourist then asked, “But what do you do with the rest of your time?”
The Mexican fisherman said, “I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take siesta with my wife, Maria, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine and play guitar with my amigos, I have a full and busy life.”
The tourist scoffed, ” I can help you. You should spend more time fishing; and with the proceeds, buy a bigger boat: With the proceeds from the bigger boat you could buy several boats. Eventually you would have a fleet of fishing boats. Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you would sell directly to the processor; eventually opening your own cannery. You would control the product, processing and distribution. You could leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Mexico City, then Los Angeles and eventually New York where you could run your ever-expanding enterprise.”
The Mexican fisherman asked, “But, how long will this all take?”
The tourist replied, “15 to 20 years.”
“But what then?” asked the Mexican.
The tourist laughed and said, “That’s the best part. When the time is right you would sell your company stock to the public and become very rich, you would make millions.”
“Millions?…Then what?”
The American said, “Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take siesta with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play your guitar with your amigos.”

Most Useful & Universal Mental Models

So what is a mental model? It is a process or way of thinking for solving a problem through using a representation of the environment. Because there are different ways to represent the environment and use intuition, there are alternative mental models. Some are focused on specific tasks while others may be more general. 

The great chart below provides a number of examples of effective mental models. Some are easily employed for investment decisions while others may help with productivity and work flow.

This weekend spend some time with people you love, you'll never regret it !

         love, joy, peace, patience, goodness, kindness, faith, mildness and self-control,                 to all

Equities versus Commodities

Equities are overvalued! Bonds are overvalued! In the minds of many investors everything is overvalued given central bank distortions, yet there may be an exception. Look at commodities. The difference between financial and real asset could not be larger. Financial assets have steadily moved higher while commodities have fallen or at best moved sideways relative to risky stocks in the last 5+ years. This relationship has applied to all equity indices around the world to varying degrees. 

One can argue that commodities are more closely tied to current economic growth while equities are tied to valuations of long-term discounted cash flows as one explanation. Equities have positive carry while commodities as measured through futures have seen mixed carry with market contango for the last few years; however, there are now switches to backwardation in some markets. The business cycle relationship with commodities suggests that these real markets peak late in the cycle not when there is a new surge in growth. Still, on a relative performance basis, commodities as an asset class looks like a better value.

Canada. Time for a refresher course?

The adage that “trees don’t grow to the sky” is being put to the test in the Great White North.   Despite a pullback in Toronto-area home prices in recent months, the Canadian housing market stands out even in this bull market-in-everything world:  The Canadian Real Estate Association’s MLS Home Price Index has risen by 130% since the beginning of 2005, more than double the 53% rise in nominal GDP over that period.  

As night follows day, rising prices are met with increased supply.  Thus, Bloomberg reported on Friday that Canadian developers are undertaking a record number of multiple-unit construction projects as they seek to participate in the boom.  Robert Kavcic, economist at BMO Capital Markets, commented that: “Canadian home building activity remains rock solid. Builders in the biggest cities appear to be responding to supply shortages as best as possible.”  The severity of these shortages, in Toronto at least, is disputable. Supply of new listings in Canada’s largest metro area has jumped by 37% year-over-year in November.

Local regulators have likewise moved to slow down the housing market’s ascent.  Canada’s Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) is introducing new regulations, set to take effect on Jan. 1, which aim to tighten lending standards. 

It may come as no great surprise to learn that the great Canadian housing bull market has been built on a foundation of debt.  Consumer debt as a percentage of disposable income has undergone a near-constant uptick since the turn of the century, reaching a fresh high water mark of 167.8% as of the end of the second quarter, compared to 144% in the U.S. in 2007. The encumbrances are particularly concentrated in home equity lines of credit, or HELOCS.

HELOCs, as a percentage of GDP [13.5% as of year-end 2016], are roughly three times higher in Canada then in the US at the peak of our housing bubble in 2006. In addition to consumption (“using your house as an ATM”) and borrowing to avoid delinquencies on other debt, Canadians have been using HELOCs to fund mortgages in the shadow banking market and buy additional speculative properties.
“People in Canada have been borrowing against their home equity line of credit - to lend to subprime borrowers directly.” Indeed, this linked piece from the Toronto Globe and Mail provides a detailed roadmap for readers who wish to use their home equity for investment purposes, in service of “leveraging their real estate assets to increase their net worth.”

Back in June, executives at Home Capital Group, Inc. agreed to pay upward of C$30 million in settlements over alleged disclosure violations related to mortgage fraud in 2015.  On Nov. 30, Reuters reported that “compliance officers at the Financial Services Commission of Ontario had evidence that syndicated mortgages were being marketed and sold in ways that broke the law . . . From 2011 to 2015, senior FSCO investigators rejected or ignored compliance officers’ multiple recommendations that the agency investigate or take action to rein in the marketing and sales of Fortress [Real Developments] syndicated mortgages.” Last week, Montreal-headquartered Laurentian Bank disclosed that it will need to buy back as much as $180 million of mortgages after discovering “documentation issues and client misrepresentations."
François Desjardins, president and CEO of Laurentian, defended his bank: “We’re very different organizations and this is a very different situation than what happened at Home [Capital]. This, to us, is really a process and paperwork issue that we have to resolve.” This morning, Laurentian issued a follow-up press release stating that: “Given recent reports in the media, the Bank wants to clarify why it does not believe these matters are material to its business, capital, operations and funding.”

Some see things differently and saying that:

The mortgage inconsistencies reported at Laurentian Bank (the third major Canadian financial institution to fess up to this problem) underscores what we have long believed to be a systemic problem with Canadian underwriting practices. 

Canada hasn’t seen a true credit cycle in nearly three decades, which warps the judgment of market participants and regulators alike.

Time for a refresher course?

The AI, robotics and VR technologies will grow into the major innovative players of the 21st century.

A while back I wrote about a new sector—artificial intelligence, robotics, and virtual reality and how these innovative technologies were set to transform numerous aspects of modern society—manufacturing, labor, health, energy, leisure, and of course transportation. 

I suggested that the low-priced ETFs—ROBO and BOTZ—were a more conservative way and my choice to trade the companies that introduce these technologies. My preferred ETF was ROBO, thanks to its slightly higher volume.

Since that post, ROBO has been racing to new highs with the other major technology sectors. Correspondingly, like the others, it has declined in the last couple of weeks. 

The run from June lifted ROBO about 25 percent to $42.50. So far, the decline has brought it back about 4 percent. In contrast, SMH, the semi-conductor ETF, is down about 11 percent.

The AI, robotics and VR technologies (along with renewable energy) will grow into the major innovative thrusts of the 21st century. The impact on the modern world will be tremendous, with huge potential for good or bad. Already, the talk is about taxing robots. New companies with breakthrough technologies will become major corporations as the sector grows. 

Until the companies in this sector mature, and the enviable shake-out occurs, I prefer the ETFs. At this moment, price is short-term oversold, and testing its breakout zone between $40 and $41. If it finds support, there’s a chance for a year-end rally.

How does a money manager reconcile all of the various prognostications he hears on a daily basis? Simple – ignore them.

From Galapagos, circa 1985:

The thing was, though: When James Wait got there, a worldwide financial crisis, a sudden revision of human opinions as to the value of money and stocks and bonds and mortgages and so on, bits of paper, had ruined the tourist business not only in Ecuador, but practically everywhere…Ecuador, after all, like the Galapagos Islands, was mostly lava and ash, and so could not begin to feed its nine million people. It was bankrupt, and so could no longer buy food from countries with plenty of topsoil, so the seaport of Guayaquil was idle, and the people were beginning to starve to death…Neighboring Peru and Columbia were bankrupt, too…Mexico and Chile and Brazil and Argentina were likewise bankrupt – and Indonesia and the Philippines and Pakistan and India and Thailand and and Italy and Ireland and Belgium and Turkey. Whole nations were suddenly in the same situation as the San Mateo, unable to buy with their paper money and coins, or their written promises to pay later, even the barest essentials. ..They were suddenly saying to people with nothing but paper representations of wealth, “Wake up, you idiots! Whatever made you think paper was so valuable?”

The financial crisis, was simply the latest in a series of murderous twentieth century catastrophes which had originated entirely in human brains. From the violence people were doing to themselves and each other, and to all other living things, for that matter, a visitor from another planet might have assumed that the environment had gone haywire, and that people were in such a frenzy because Nature was about to kill them all.

But the planet a million years ago was as moist and nourishing as it is today – and unique, in that respect, in the entire Milky Way. All that had changed was people’s opinion of the place.

The trend is still up. Stocks breaking out to new highs, new leg up. Enjoy the ride.

Commodity markets offer a wide set of alternative risk premium opportunities. These opportunities have improved with the end of the long-term super-cycle downturn. The dominate cycle factor has ended and has allowed more balanced investment opportunities.

The general framework for alternative risk premium can be divided into a number of categories:

Carry/Term/Backwardation - (Backwardation/Contango) - There is more variation in backwardation across commodities and through time than what can be found in other markets given the sensitivity to inventory changes, supply shocks, and hedging pressure. The changing supply dynamics and demand for hedging creates a greater number of "carry" opportunities.

Momentum - (Time series/Cross-sectional) - Given the inelastic demand and supply for many commodities, there is likely to be greater price responses to any shock. The use of futures as a hedging tool means that many trades are not done for profit maximization but risk considerations. This creates trend and momentum opportunities.

Value - (Long-term price levels) - More so than other markets, long-term price can be serve as a value indicator. As often commented by market pundits, the solution to high (low) commodity prices are high (low) prices. Extended periods of low prices will lead to supply reductions which will serve as the mechanism for future price gains. Extend periods of high prices will lead to new supply and future price declines.

Seasonal - (Market situational) - More so than other asset classes, there are distinct seasonal patterns that lend themselves to changing risk premium.

Volatility - The volatility risk premium is present like other asset classes; however, these premiums are more diversified relative to other asset classes given the low correlation across commodity markets.

useful views

#1: Concentrate on the process, not the results.

#2: Make decisions and money from your skills.

#3: It's never outside of you - it's always you.

#4: Every disappointment holds a sead of an equivalent benefit, a positive message.

#5: Never cease to try to be the best you can be, continue learning and growing.

#6: Long term trading success is like farming, there are no short cuts.

#7: Develop and believe that trading crates and add real value to you and your family, your friends, community and the whole of humanity.

#8: Develop a love and respect for free markets, individual liberty, initiative and trading as a part of a remarkable whole.

#9: It's never too late because it's never anything other than Now!

CME Group, the world's largest derivatives exchange operator, said it would launch a futures contract for bitcoin later this year.