today is the day, US Election 2016

Regardless of who wins the election, there will be a big reaction in the markets, but nobody can predict the size or the direction.

Trend is still down. Enjoy the ride.

So ahead of the Fed tomorrow and the U.S. election results next week, the markets are pricing in a little more risk today.  A broad "risk-off" day means stocks go lower, yields lower, crude oil lower, gold higher and the VIX (a market measure of uncertainty) higher.

"And I always thought this would be The land of milk and honey Oh but I came to find out That it's all hate and money"

follow up: USDJPY

"While it is assumed markets cannot possibly crash ahead of the November 8 elections, if some material news announcement were to hit causing big money to exit, there is little "forces" such as the alleged plunge protection team could do to prop markets."

"Since July, the S&P 500 has traded in the shallowest band in its entire 59-year trading history. It has traded in an even more flat manner than in 1976 when it typically corrected no more than 4-5%, an unprecedented period which lasted 7 1/2 months."

follow up: USDJPY

“…Human nature never changes. Therefore, the stock market never changes. Only the faces, the pockets, the suckers, and the manipulators, the wars, the disasters and the technologies change. The market itself never changes. How can it? Human nature never changes, and human nature runs the market – not reason, not economics, and certainly not logic. It is our human emotions that drive the market, as they do most other things on this planet.”

You are not so smart.

survivorship-bias

the story remains the same

Led Zeppelin

contemplating

"Focus on whether what you are dong is right, not on the random nature of any single trade’s outcome."

 symmetrical triangle is an inherently unstable pattern and you must manage your risk carefully and pick your trades with care

USDJYP

                               weekly view ~  possible 16-week symmetrical triangle bottom

Bond and Rates

        evidence suggests Fed caution.....election may dominate Fed action

Your words and thoughts have physical power by Will Smith

2016 Nobel Prize In Literature ~ Bob Dylan

Global Macro Themes October 2016

                                        click on the chart to enlarge

possibly going sideways until election 2016

                               Trend is still down. Enjoy the ride.

The reason momentum outperforms in the long run is because it fails in the short run.

http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-most-overlooked-trait-of-investing-success/

Trend is still down. Enjoy the ride.