trading

trading

Friday 14 August 2015

Get more sleep and rest.

A large body of evidence suggests that we need at least seven to eight hours of sleep to function optimally, yet more than one-third of us in North America are getting fewer than six hours of sleep each night. What’s more, our culture doesn’t value leisure and rest. Most of us run around like chickens with our heads cut off each day, rushing from one ( trade ) task to the next and rarely taking time to pause, reflect, or decompress.

Here’s the bottom line: if you don’t get enough sleep or rest, you’re not going to (trade) perform at your best or be as healthy as you can be. I know this might sound so obvious it’s not worth saying, but a large percentage of (traders) people simply aren’t sleeping or resting enough. Here are a few tips for addressing this problem:
  • Allow at least eight hours for sleep each night
  • Create an environment conducive to sleep, no distraction ( TV, laptop, you know it)
  • Reduce your exposure to artificial light at night
  • Schedule 30 minutes of rest into each day. This could be meditation, a relaxation technique, or simply taking a nap.
  • Designate one day a week as a “technology sabbatical”: no email, social media, or web browsing. This can really help you to unwind. 
If you follow these tips for the next few weeks, I’m confident that you’ll see some positive changes in your (trading) performance and health.

Thursday 13 August 2015

What is Deliberate Practice?


Deliberate practice is a highly structured activity engaged in with the specific goal of improving performance.
Deliberate practice is different from work, play and simple repetition of a task. It requires effort, it has no monetary reward, and it is not inherently enjoyable.
When you engage in deliberate practice, improving your performance over time is your goal and motivation.
That’s not to say that deliberate practice can’t be designed to be fun, but it isn’t inherently enjoyable on it’s own.
If you want to gain skills rapidly or approach expert-level status at something, you must understand the importance of deliberate practice and learn how to incorporate it into your daily life.

The Four Essential Components of Deliberate Practice

Research into the history of education (dating back several thousand years), combined with more recent scientific experiments have uncovered a number of conditions for optimal learning and improvement. Again, from K. Anders Ericsson, here are the four essential components of deliberate practice.
When these conditions are met, practice improves accuracy and speed of performance on cognitive, perceptual, and motor tasks:
  1. You must be motivated to attend to the task and exert effort to improve your performance.
  2. The design of the task should take into account your pre-existing knowledge so that the task can be correctly understood after a brief period of instruction.
  3. You should receive immediate informative feedback and knowledge of results of your performance.
  4. You should repeatedly perform the same or similar tasks.
It’s important to note that without adequate feedback about your performance during practice, efficient learning is impossible and improvement is minimal.
Simple practice isn’t enough to rapidly gain skills.
Mere repetition of an activity won’t lead to improved performance.
Your practice must be: intentional, aimed at improving performance, designed for your current skill level, combined with immediate feedback and repetitious.

What Deliberate Practice Means for You

  1. Natural ability is no excuse.
  2. If you’re 5’5″, maybe you shouldn’t set your sites on becoming an NBA center. Some physical limits are obvious. Most other “limits” are cop-outs or relics of old misunderstandings about talent.
    What’s cool is that even limits of brainpower can be overcome with deliberate practice. One-on-one tutoring has shown to greatly reduce the differences in achievement between students of different cognitive abilities.
  3. How you practice matters most.
  4. To benefit from practice and reach your potential, you have to constantly challenge yourself.
    This doesn’t mean repeatedly doing what you already know how to do.
    This means understanding your weaknesses and inventing specific tasks in your practice to address those deficiencies.
  5. How long you persevere determines your limits.
  6. Becoming an expert is a marathon, not a sprint.
    You cannot reach your mental and physical limits in just a few weeks or months. To grow to the top of your game, you’ll have to persevere for years.
    Your practice has to be deliberate and intense, but it also has to be carefully scheduled and limited in ways to avoid burnout and long-term fatigue (both mental and physical).
  7. Motivation becomes the real constraint on expertise.
  8. Practice isn’t always fun. It’s an investment into improving yourself, your skills and your future.
    In order to practice with intention for long enough to become an expert or gain useful skills, you have to find the motivation to make the investment.
    Where will you find that motivation? 

Friday 7 August 2015

The market does what the market does, and that is the simple truth to the matter.

One of the great myths of the stock market is that you have to be in the market all the time in order to be successful. In my view, this is simply not true. There are times when it is appropriate to be heavily invested, and there will be times when the market direction is not so obvious ( like now ). During such an environment, being out of the market and in cash may be the wisest play.

One of the most important things you can do to manage stress is to bring more love, joy and peace into your life.

Obviously there are times when we just can’t avoid stress. Maybe we have a high-stress job like trading, or we’re caring for an ailing parent, or we’re having difficulty with our partner or spouse. In these situations it’s not about reducing stress itself, but about reducing its harmful effects. How do you do that? There are several different strategies: • Reframe the situation. We experience stress because of the meaning we assign to certain events or situations. Sometimes changing our perspective is enough to relieve the stress. For example, being stuck in a losing trade can be a “disaster” or it could be an opportunity for contemplation and learning. • Lower your standards. This is especially important for you perfectionists out there. Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Let good enough be good enough. • Practise acceptance. One meditation teacher used to say “All suffering is caused by wishing the moment to be other than it is.” Many things in life are beyond our control. Learn to accept the things you can’t change. • Be grateful. Simply shifting your focus from what is not okay or not enough, to what you’re grateful for or appreciative of can completely change your perspective—and relieve stress. • Cultivate empathy. When you’re in a conflict with another person, make an effort to connect with their feelings and needs. If you understand where they’re coming from, you’ll be less likely to react and take it personally. • Manage your time. Poor time management is a major cause of stress. When you’re overwhelmed with commitments and stretched too thin, it’s difficult to stay present and relaxed. Careful planning and establishing boundaries with your time can help. In addition to everything I’ve listed above, one of the most important things you can do to manage stress is to bring more peace, joy and love into your life. 

Wednesday 5 August 2015

Allow all your dreams of doing great work, being creative and making a difference in people's lives to happen today.

 It's fine to have big plans and dreams but wealth is created now. Right now. In this present moment. It was never created at any other time in history. It was always now.
Allow all your dreams of doing great work, being creative and making a difference in people's lives to happen today. Not in some far-off conditional future. Start where you are now.
Noted psychiatrist Stanislav Grof says in The Consciousness Revolution, "I have worked with people who had a major goal in life that required decades of intense and sustained effort to achieve. And when they finally succeeded, they became severely depressed, because they expected something that the achievement of the goal could not give them. Joseph Campbell called this situation, 'getting to the  top of the ladder and finding that it stands against the wrong wall.'"
Don't put off your fulfilment. Don't put your happiness at the top of some ladder you have to climb. Don't wait until you've "made it" to feel great about life. Wealth is attracted to people who feel great right now. People who know how to be and operate in this moment of ever changing NOW.

Monday 27 July 2015

Until there is a strong breakout with good follow-through, there is no breakout.

Last week’s sell off was climactic and it will probably be followed by at least a couple of day’s up this week. If instead this week continues to sell off with big bear trend bars, the odds of a bear breakout will go up.



NOTE:  continue to position in agreement with the controlling price action, keeping risk in check, trading day by day, and be prepared for just about anything

NOTE: this Wednesday at 11am PST we have FOMC Meeting Announcement

Thursday 9 July 2015

Wednesday was one of the weirdest market days in years, not just due to price action, but the incredible stream of events behind the action.


'The S&P 500 threatened to breach its 200 DMA support this week… then violently reversed… then reversed again… and is now threatening to reverse back higher once again. Meanwhile the NYSE shut down for hours on Wednesday, even as United Airlines and the Wall Street Journal experienced troubling outages, against a backdrop of China market collapse where trillions of dollars worth of shares have been “frozen” i.e. seen trading completely halted (with ominous leverage in play via stock loans) and unprecedented government bans on share sales for large stakeholders (not even short selling, just bans on selling period!). Then adding to this madness you have the situation in Europe, which only seems to keep getting weirder as Greece itself heads toward chaos 



There is a strong temptation to “do something” in markets like this, but as long as exposure is contained (and risk management is in place) the best thing overall is often to just sit back and watch. Periods of high and rising volatility coupled with wild twists and turns based on political statements are better opportunities to preserve capital (by not getting caught up in the maelstrom) than to try and earn capital (by getting frantic or overly involved).'

Thursday 11 June 2015

Tenacity is needed for success...

'Tenacity is the ability to not give up in spite of difficulty and results from any activity that are not desired. It is the ability to persist with determination toward something tirelessly and with absolute perseverance to the point that failure is not an option. It is the ability to live through intense struggle, to see consistently poor results for long periods of time, and in spite of that, still keep learning and improving on working on your trading with tremendous enthusiasm in spite of those results.'

Tuesday 9 June 2015

some quotes by my friend Ed

Technical analysis

1. In order of importance to me are: (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell. Those are the three primary components of my trading. Way down in very distant fourth place are my fundamental ideas and, quite likely, on balance, they have cost me money.
2. If I were buying, my point would be above the market. I try to identify a point at which I expect the market momentum to be strong in the direction of the trade, so as to reduce my probable risk.
3. If I am bullish, I neither buy on a reaction, nor wait for strength; I am already in. I turn bullish at the instant my buy stop is hit, and stay bullish until my sell stop is hit. Being bullish and not being long is illogical.
4. I set protective stops at the same time I enter a trade. I normally move these stops in to lock in a profit as the trend continues. Sometimes, I take profits when a market gets wild. This usually doesn’t get me out any better than waiting for my stops to close in, but it does cut down on the volatility of the portfolio, which helps calm my nerves. Losing a position is aggravating, whereas losing your nerve is devastating.
5. Before I enter a trade, I set stops at a point at which the chart sours.
6. Getting back in is an essential part of trend following.
7. I don’t implement momentum, I notice it and align my trading with it.
8. The markets are the same now as they were five to ten years ago because they keep changing – just like they did then.
Risk management
9. Trading requires skill at reading the markets and at managing your own anxieties.
10. Risk is the uncertain possibility of loss. If you could quantify risk exactly, it would no longer be risk.
11. Risk control has to do with your willingness to allow your stop to do its job.
12. Speculate with less than 10% of your liquid net worth. Risk less than 1% of your speculative account on a trade. This tends to keep the fluctuations in the trading account small, relative to net worth.
13. Reliance on Fundamentals indicates lack of faith in trend following.
14. Risk no more that you can afford to lose, and also risk enough so that a win is meaningful.
15. I usually ignore advice from other traders, especially the ones who believe they are on to a “sure thing”. The old timers, who talk about “maybe there is a chance of so and so,” are often right and early.
16. Pyramiding instructions appear on dollar bills. Add smaller and smaller amounts on the way up. Keep your eye open at the top
Longer term trading
17. Having a quote machine is like having a slot machine on your desk— you end up feeding it all day long. I get my price data after the close each day.
18. Intraday trading is tough since the moves are not as big as for long-term trading and there is no comparable reduction in transaction cost.
19. In general, short-term trading systems succumb to transaction costs and execution friction.
20. Trend systems do not intend to pick tops or bottoms. They ride sides.
21. The shorter the term, the smaller the move. So profit potential decreases with trading frequency. Meanwhile, transaction costs stay the same. To compensate for profit roll-off, short-term traders have to be very good guessers. To improve guessing skills, you can practice dealing cards from a standard deck, one at a time. When you become very good at it you might be able to make money with short term trading.
Money management
teaching-kids-about-money2
22. The key to long-term survival and prosperity has a lot to do with the money management techniques incorporated into the technical system. There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders.
23. The manager has to decide how much risk to accept, which markets to play, and how aggressively to increase and decrease the trading base as a function of equity change. These decisions are quite important—often more important than trade timing.
24. The profitability of trading systems seems to move in cycles. Periods during which trend-following systems are highly successful will lead to their increased popularity. As the number of system users increases, and the markets shift from trending to directionless price action, these systems become unprofitable, and under capitalized and inexperienced traders will get shaken out. Longevity is the key to success.
Trading a system that suits you
25. Systems don’t need to be changed. The trick is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible.
26. I don’t think traders can follow rules for very long unless they reflect their own trading style. Eventually, a breaking point is reached and the trader has to quit or change, or find a new set of rules he can follow. This seems to be part of the process of evolution and growth of a trader.
27. A trading system is an agreement you make between yourself and the markets.
28. Trading Systems don’t eliminate whipsaws. They just include them as part of the process.
29. A computer can follow a system and place orders without making predictions or feeling anticipation. Predictions and anticipations are objects you create. These objects may interfere with sticking to your system.
Rules to follow
30. The trading rules I live by are: (1) Cut losses. (2) Ride winners. (3) Keep bets small. (4) Follow the rules without question. (5) Know when to break the rules.
31. The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.
Embrace losses
32. If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses.
33. I handle losing streaks by trimming down my activity. I just wait it out. Trying to trade during a losing streak is emotionally devastating. Trying to play “catch up” is lethal.
34. (On losing streaks and over-trading) Acting out this drama could be exciting. However, it also seems terribly expensive. One alternative is to keep bets small and then to systematically keep reducing risk during equity draw downs. That way you have a gentle financial and emotional touchdown.
Mindset of a winner
35. A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.
36. The winning traders have usually been winning at whatever field they are in for years.
37. It is a happy circumstance that when nature gives us true burning desires, she also gives us the means to satisfy them. Those who want to win and lack skill can get someone with skill to help them.
38 The “doing” part of trading is simple. You just pick up the phone and place orders. The “being” part is a bit more subtle. It’s like being an athlete. It’s commitment arid mission. To the committed, a world of support appears. All manner of unforeseen assistance materializes to support and propel the committed to meet grand destiny.
39. In your recipe for success, don’t forget commitment – and a deep belief in the inevitability of your success.

Wednesday 27 May 2015

follow up: BOX


note: June 10th after the close,  BOX will report earnings

Tuesday 5 May 2015

#10: BETTER, NOT MORE "It is quality rather than quantity that matters."

"Cut the link between the number of trades and your trading profits. Ignore the link between the time you spend trading and your trading results. Your trade quality is what matters." 

Monday 4 May 2015

#9: TIME OFF THE MARKET "Only time can heal what reason cannot."


“Order Rejected. Margin Exhausted”
"You realize that your trading account is ruined. You cannot trade anymore. You recall your unimaginable lack of discipline. You had no idea why you took that many rogue trades. A humbling experience. You keep searching for a reason to explain this disastrous outcome. You think that it will help you regain confidence. You should find the reasons so that you won’t ruin your account again. However, reason alone might not help you regain your confidence as a trader. In that case, taking time off the market is the best course of action. Rest and recover. Then, return to the market with the right mindset."

Friday 1 May 2015

#8: LUCK IN TRADING "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."

"Ever thought of why your trading buddy is always luckier than you? Perhaps he is just more prepared than you. Gamblers depend on pure luck. Traders prepare for an opportunity."