The truth is that no-one knows.
The 1970s can offer insights. The gold price from 1974-1976 corrected 47% before it rose 8x to peak at US$887/oz in 1980. Extraordinarily, the price increased 4x in the 13 months before the peak.
trading
Saturday 13 April 2013
Friday 12 April 2013
commitment is the game and fulfillment is the aim
"I would sometimes think that maybe I ought to stop trading because it was
very painful to keep losing. In 'Fiddler on the Roof,' there is a scene where
the lead looks up and talks to God. I would look up and say, 'Am I really that
stupid?' And I seemed to hear a clear answer saying, 'No, you are not stupid.
You just have to keep at it.' So I did."
- Michael Marcus
Market Wizard, is noted for turning $30,000 into $80 million. If
even he started out taking enough lumps to generate serious self-doubt, how can
traders learning in today's environment expect less of a persistence
breakthrough challenge?
follow up; UNG and SMH trades
now needs a break out and a follow through
stopped out at break even on a half position after taking 1R profit on the first half
Wednesday 10 April 2013
advance through trial and error
Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; and if it is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.
~Marcus Aurelius
~Marcus Aurelius
Monday 8 April 2013
just a reminder, QE
"As more and more money gets printed, currencies will
inevitably devalue and hard assets including stocks will rise. Should inflation
start to run rampant, stock markets, as history has shown, could start to rise
in a parabolic manner. One would hope central banks would slow QE to prevent
this from happening, as the aftermath of such a stock market bubble is always
catastrophic."
Friday 5 April 2013
Thursday 4 April 2013
a trader is a person who earns what he gets...
"The symbol of all relationships among such men, the moral symbol of
respect for human beings, is the trader. We, who live by values, not by loot are
traders, both in manner and spirit. A trader is a man who earns what he gets and
does not give or take the undeserved. A trader does not ask to be paid for his
failures, nor does he ask to be loved for his flaws. A trader does not squander
his body as fodder, or his soul as alms. Just as he does not give his work
except in trade for material values, so he does not give the values of his
spirit-his love, his friendship, his esteem-except in payment and in trade for
human virtue, in payment for his own selfish pleasure, which he receives from
men he can respect."
~from Atlas Shrugged
~from Atlas Shrugged
Wednesday 3 April 2013
Tuesday 2 April 2013
Monday 1 April 2013
Monday 25 March 2013
“bandwagon” theory
Traders often hear about “tulip mania,”
the “South Sea bubble” and other similar events where traders have followed the
crowd to send prices to extreme levels. You might add the technology dot.com
bubble of the late 1990s or the more recent housing bubble to the list of those
events where traders got carried away with higher and higher prices. Everyone
wanted to be part of the action – the “crowd
psychology” or “bandwagon” theory. The same type of crowd response
applies to price action on a smaller scale, too. For example, when a market is
coming up from a basing area on the charts, “smart money” is responsible for the
majority of the initial buying. As people jump on board, we
see the bandwagon effect, and that bandwagon pushes prices up. Volume tends to surge at its
peak, certainly on the buy side, during the markup phase in the middle. Later,
toward the end of the trend, smart money is not doing the buying; somebody else is. The smart
money is doing the selling. The market tops by rolling over or sometimes with a spike top. We
can see the crowd impact expressed in price and in volume. Just think about what happens
among professional traders when the stock market goes up even when the fundamentals don’t
provide much support for such a move. Prices often rise because institutional money managers
feel pressured to follow the crowd and chase performance. How can they explain why their
results are below the industry benchmarks if they don’t go with the crowd and buy the stocks
everyone else has in their portfolios? That rationale alone can
drive markets
higher than they “should” go.
Friday 22 March 2013
trend trading, momentum, swing, price action, trading futures & equities
"If you are ready to give up everything else - to study the whole history and background of the market ... as a medical student studies anatomy. If you can do all that, and, in addition, you have the cool nerves of a gambler, the sixth sense of a kind of clairvoyant, and the courage of a lion, you have a ghost of a chance."
---Bernard Baruch
---Bernard Baruch
Wednesday 20 March 2013
I think that expertise is the connection between knowing and doing.
"Some degree of derivative learning is necessary - BUT - much learning does not teach understanding. Only through experience and extensive practice and application will understanding and expertise arise."
-Heraclitus, 475 BC
New trader to Master Trader:
"Sir, what is the secret of your success"? "Two words."
"And, sir, what are they?" "Right decisions."
"And how do you make the right decisions." "One word."
"And, sir, what is that one word?" "Experience."
"And, sir, how do you get experience?" "Two words."
"And, sir, what are those two words?" "Wrong decisions."
Tuesday 19 March 2013
S&P 500 cash market analysis and outlook
the line of least resistance is upward and this pullback is going to present us with a new menu with new low risk setups, manage open positions and be patient with initiating new ones, and for you that want to short now, plain and simple don't, if the market is going to tank there is going to be plenty of time to get on board, read the post below and don't predict, but follow your proven game plan
Monday 18 March 2013
Friday 15 March 2013
Are you prepared ?
"Being
prepared, on a few occasions in a lifetime, to act promptly in scale in doing
some simple and logical thing will often dramatically improve the financial
results of that lifetime. A few major opportunities, clearly recognisable as
such, will usually come to one who continuously searches and waits, with a
curious mind, loving diagnosis involving multiple variables. And then all that
is required is a willingness to bet heavily when the odds are extremely
favourable, using resources available as a result of prudence and patience in the
past."
-
Charlie Munger
Thursday 14 March 2013
UNG - b - now
above weekly view and below daily charts
higher low, buyable gap ( above 50 sma ), and now a breakout through last swing high, trend changes at this point on daily time frame, now looking for follow through and for the price to accelerate higher, and then to have an orderly pullback
<a href="http://www.hyipdata.com">http://www.hyipdata.com</a>
Monday 11 March 2013
Wednesday 6 March 2013
as long as we're hitting new highs upward trend continues
at this time the trend is up and we don't fight the trend, if you have some shorts on keep the stops tight
What to do now? Wait for a pullback, if we get it, to initiate new long positions and wait for new shorts for now as it doesn't pay to fight the trend.
<a href="http://www.hyipdata.com">http://www.hyipdata.com</a>
Monday 4 March 2013
sitting on your hands
waiting looks as the best action right now, hopefully next several days of price action will resolve situation and give us a new trend and new opportunities, make sure you wait for follow through ~ read below post, the art of useful waiting
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