For those of you who have been buying silver and gold over the last few weeks may consider taking some profit here. That is not to say they wont keep going higher over the longer term, but in the short term, they may continue to sell off as liquidity is raised to meet margin calls.
In late 2008 when the market had its slow motion crash from September through November, nothing was safe, with most stocks and commodities losing typically between 50-85% of their value peak-to-trough. Gold was perhaps the most robust out of all vehicles, but still sold off over 25% peak-to-trough.
The market seems particularly vulnerable here, so it may be prudent to keep your long exposure to precious metals on the lighter side until the dust settles and the general market stabilizes. You can then always buy back what you sold.
trading
Thursday 4 August 2011
Wednesday 3 August 2011
Tuesday 2 August 2011
Weekly view of SP-500.
Let's look at the big picture. The market remains stuck in a wide and loose sideways trading range. There is a head and shoulder possible formation that we need to observe and there is possible support there from which the new rally could start. We have to wait for the market to tip its hand for us to act. Although trading is an active verb, sometimes the best action is no action.
Tuesday 26 July 2011
Mindset.
"To live a pure unselfish life, one must count nothing as
one's own in the midst of abundance." (Buddha)
one's own in the midst of abundance." (Buddha)
Where are the best opportunities now ?
Silver directionally correlates highly with gold.
Further money printing in the US and in Europe will cause the dollar to fall further therefore hard assets including gold and silver should continue their long term up trends. Use any pullback in precious metals as a buying opportunity, as the long term trend is up.
Monday 25 July 2011
On the market.
Thursday 21 July 2011
Losing discipline is not a trading problem; it is the common result of a number of trading-related problems.
Here are some common sources of loss of discipline I have learned about through my personal experiences.
10) Distractions and boredom cause a lack of focus
9) Fatigue and mental overload create a loss of concentration
8) Overconfidence follows a string of successes
7) Unwillingness to accept losses, leading to alterations of trade plans after the trade has gone into the red
6) Loss of confidence in one's trading plan/strategy because it has not been adequately tested and battle-tested
5) Personality traits that lead to impulsivity and low frustration tolerance in stressful situations
4) Situational performance pressures, such as trading slumps and increased personal expenses, that change how traders trade (putting P/L ahead of making good trades)
3) Trading positions that are excessive for the account size, created exaggerated P/L swings and emotional reactions
2) Not having a clearly defined trading plan/strategy in the first place
1) Trading a time frame, style, or market that does not match your talents, skills, risk tolerance, and personality
10) Distractions and boredom cause a lack of focus
9) Fatigue and mental overload create a loss of concentration
8) Overconfidence follows a string of successes
7) Unwillingness to accept losses, leading to alterations of trade plans after the trade has gone into the red
6) Loss of confidence in one's trading plan/strategy because it has not been adequately tested and battle-tested
5) Personality traits that lead to impulsivity and low frustration tolerance in stressful situations
4) Situational performance pressures, such as trading slumps and increased personal expenses, that change how traders trade (putting P/L ahead of making good trades)
3) Trading positions that are excessive for the account size, created exaggerated P/L swings and emotional reactions
2) Not having a clearly defined trading plan/strategy in the first place
1) Trading a time frame, style, or market that does not match your talents, skills, risk tolerance, and personality
Reading charts.
I view charts from the perspective of people with positions (long or short) in the stock and those looking to get in or out. What would compel them to act? What can a big guy or crowd of HFTs do to pile on and get something started? Who is trapped ? What is a possible surprise ? I'm always looking for that.
There is no one right answer -- but an endless number of right answers -- to most of trading problems.
Monday 18 July 2011
2011.
Wednesday 13 July 2011
Defense is not only the best offense in this business, it is the only offense that works.
There's time to press and then there's time to sit and wait. Sitting and waiting and a lot of patience is required now.
Tuesday 12 July 2011
Watching.
shake out. There aren't a whole lot of meaningful setups anyway.
Thursday 7 July 2011
Someone said, “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”
Success occurs when you have a definite purpose for your life and you take the initiative to follow through with action. You may make mistakes occasionally -- everyone does -- but any action is far better than doing nothing.
Tuesday 5 July 2011
So what do we do now?
The market is severely overbought--gaining
nearly 6% in 5 days. It's very dangerous to buy it at this
juncture. Keep stops on open positions and wait
for a break of the range or a pullback to get involved with new positions.
nearly 6% in 5 days. It's very dangerous to buy it at this
juncture. Keep stops on open positions and wait
for a break of the range or a pullback to get involved with new positions.
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