The onset of a trade war between the U.S. and Canada, effective from February 1, 2025, introduces risks and opportunities in various sectors due to the imposition of tariffs and anticipated retaliatory actions. Here are some potential opportunities based on the current scenario:

1. Investment in Non-Tariff Affected Canadian Sectors

Opportunity:

• Energy Sector: Since Canadian oil and energy products are subjected to a lower tariff rate of 10% compared to other goods, this could be a relatively safer bet. Companies in Canada that focus on exporting energy, particularly those not heavily dependent on U.S. sales, might see less impact from the immediate tariff effects.

Action:

• Look into Canadian energy companies that have diversified markets or are increasing exports to other countries like Europe or Asia, which could benefit from redirected Canadian supply. Companies like Suncor Energy or Canadian Natural Resources might be worth considering.

2. Arbitrage Opportunities

Opportunity:

• Goods Diversion: With tariffs in place, there might be cost advantages for businesses to source or sell products in areas not directly affected by the tariffs, leading to arbitrage opportunities.

Action:

• Investigate companies that can easily shift their supply chains to divert goods through third countries or increase domestic production in Canada or Mexico to avoid high U.S. tariffs. This could include logistics companies or firms with flexible manufacturing bases.

3. Consumer Goods and Services

Opportunity:

• Local Canadian Products: As Canadian consumers are encouraged by their government to buy locally to counteract U.S. tariffs, there could be a surge in demand for Canadian-made products.

Action:

• Invest in or buy stocks of Canadian companies that produce consumer goods with strong domestic branding or those that can quickly pivot to meet local demand. Sectors like food, apparel, and household goods could see a boost. Consider firms like Lululemon or Canadian Tire.

4. Short-term Trading in Currency Markets

Opportunity:

• Currency Fluctuations: The trade war could cause the Canadian dollar to weaken against the U.S. dollar, creating opportunities for forex traders.

Action:

• If you're into forex trading, consider shorting the CAD against the USD in the short term - but be prepared for potential rebounds if diplomatic solutions are found or if Canada's retaliatory measures strengthen its currency.

5. Diversification into Other Markets

Opportunity:

• Trade Diversification: Canada might strengthen ties with other trading partners, offering growth in sectors that can expand into these markets.

Action:

• Explore Canadian companies that are already or planning to expand into markets like those covered by the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership). This could include sectors from agriculture to technology.

Considerations:

• Volatility: All these opportunities come with increased market volatility. Ensure robust risk management strategies are in place.
• Long-term vs. Short-term: Some of these opportunities might be short-lived, depending on the duration and intensity of the trade dispute.
• Political Developments: Monitor political news, as any change in policy or negotiation could swiftly alter market dynamics.

Remember, while these are potential opportunities, they also carry risks due to the unpredictable nature of trade wars. Always conduct thorough due diligence.

"Want to live longer, healthier, happier? Pick your morning routines wisely."

 

“Win Your Morning, Win Your Day, Win Your Life”... is serious wisdom.

 

Here’s what I do and why. I hope it’s helpful. Whatever routines you choose, make them non-negotiable.

 

#1. Morning Attitude—“Gratitude & Optimism”: When I wake every morning (usually around 6 a.m.), I reflect on Gratitude and Optimism before I even open my eyes. I am grateful to be alive, to have the opportunities and challenges before me, and optimistic about the future and my ability to shape it. This sets a powerful basis for the rest of my morning, day, and life.

 

#2. Stack Your Habits for Maximum Impact: Don't just do one healthy thing—stack them. During (6 a.m.–6:30 a.m.), I combine Qi Gong, stretching, and vagal nerve stimulation for stress management. This "habit stacking" makes the most of my time while cementing multiple healthy behaviors. It also sets me up for my next activity, writing.

 

#3. Prioritize Before You Digitize: Before diving into emails and notifications, set your top priorities for the day. I keep an active “Action List” with my top projects and priorities. I review it and write down a few things, noting,  “If I pull these off, today is a total win.” This mental clarity exercise reduces stress and ensures you're focusing on what truly matters to you.

 

#4. Make Exercise Non-Negotiable: Exercise isn't just about staying fit—it’s your #1 pro-longevity protocol. As Dr. Kenneth Cooper says, "We don't stop exercising because we grow old; we grow old because we stop exercising." Whether it's weight training for muscle maintenance or HIIT for mitochondrial health, make movement a daily priority. 

BUT MAKE NO EXCUSE: If you can’t put in a full hour of resistance training, do something for 10 minutes: squats, pushups, planks.

**My 10-Minute Longevity-Boosting Morning Routine**  

*(Focus: Mobility, Strength, Balance & Breath)*  

**1. Warm-Up (1 Minute)**  

- **March in Place** (30 sec): Lift knees gently, and swing arms. Imagine waking up every joint.  

- **Arm Circles + Deep Breaths** (30 sec): Circle arms forward/backward; inhale through nose, exhale fully.  

*Why?* Prepares your heart, lungs, and muscles for action.  

**2. Dynamic Mobility (2 Minutes)**  

- **Torso Twists** (30 sec): Feet hip-width, rotate upper body side-to-side, arms swinging naturally. Keep hips forward.  

- **Side Bends** (30 sec): Reach right arm overhead, lean left; switch sides. Move like a palm tree in a breeze.  

- **Ankle Rolls** (30 sec per leg): Lift one foot, and roll the ankle clockwise/counter. *Critical for balance and circulation!*  

**3. Strength & Stability (3 Minutes)**  

- Squats or **Chair-Assisted Squats** (1 min): Sit to stand (or hover above the chair), engaging glutes and thighs. Keep knees over toes. *8–10 reps.*  

- Pushups or **Wall Push-Ups** (1 min): Lean at an angle against a wall; lower your chest toward the wall, and push back. *10–12 reps.*  

- Plank or **Bird-Dog** (1 min): On hands and knees, extend opposite arm/leg. Hold 3 sec; alternate. *6–8 reps/side.*  

*Why?* Builds functional strength for daily life—no gym required!  

**4. Balance & Coordination (2 Minutes)**  

- **Heel-to-Toe Walk** (1 min): Walk in a straight line, placing heel directly in front of toes. Arms out for balance.  

- **Single-Leg Stand** (30 sec/side): Hold a chair or wall if needed. Focus on a fixed point. *Bonus: Smile—it’s harder than it looks!*  

**5. Cool-Down & Stretch (2 Minutes)**  

- **Seated Forward Fold** (30 sec): Sit, legs extended; hinge from hips to reach for toes (keep knees soft).  

- **Chest Opener** (30 sec): Clasp hands behind back, gently lift arms while rolling shoulders back.  

- **Deep Breathing** (1 min): Inhale for 4 counts, exhale for 6. Visualize stress leaving your body.  

Consistency is your superpower. By dedicating just 10 minutes daily, you’re investing in a future where you’re *strong, agile, and unstoppable*. Modify as needed, but always show up. You’ve got this!  

*“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now.”* 🌱  

**Now go conquer your day—your body and mind are ready!** 💪✨

The Easy Money is Over

This year has been a dream run for the markets, one of the most favorable periods I can recall. Let’s break it down:

• Low Volatility: Markets stayed calm, making it easier to hold positions.
• Strong Uptrend: An almost unstoppable climb lifted nearly everything.
• Dip Buying: Every pullback turned into an opportunity for quick gains.
• Speculation Thrived: High-risk names soared to unbelievable heights.

The market likely covered if you were leveraged, had a messy strategy, or made avoidable mistakes. That’s the nature of a bull market—everyone looks like a genius.

But next year will be different.

Here’s the personal reality check:

• Stay Humble: If you made big profits, don’t let it get to your head. Overconfidence kills in a changing market.
• Stay Vigilant: The easy trend might be over. Winning next year will require sharper strategies and better discipline.
• Put in the Work: If you didn’t capitalize this year, take it as motivation. Success comes to those who learn and adapt.

The bottom line: Complacency is a killer. The markets will always test you. Be ready, humble, patient, and evolving.

Enjoy the ride!

Thanks to all of you, Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Yesterday's Fed announcement, and that baffling press conference after, just reset the game for the months ahead.

A new era dawns, rewriting the rules of the market game—

With the recent U.S. election, there’s been a big shift from left to right. If history tells us anything, though, these swings back and forth aren’t new; they’ve repeatedly shown up in American politics. A great read that dives into the timing and impact of these shifts is The Cycles of American History by historian Arthur Schlesinger. He noted that these political tides tend to move in roughly 18-year cycles, though it seems to be speeding up a bit in recent years.

For us as traders, there’s an opportunity here. These shifts bring new winners and losers in the business world. Not every company will benefit; some will ride the wave, while others will struggle. That’s where a solid strategy and selective stock picking come in—keeping ourselves on the “right side of the road” will be key in navigating what’s next.

SOFI - abc

 Trading Plan:

• Entry Point: If not already in the trade, consider entering on a pullback, possibly around $9.00-$9.20 to reduce risk and align with the bullish trend.
• Stop Loss: Below the $8.00 level (recent support) to protect against a deeper correction.
• Target: The next target could be around $10.50-$11.00, as this is the next psychological resistance level. If the momentum continues, there could be a potential breakout above $10.
• Risk Management: Watch for volume on the next leg up. If the volume stays strong, the uptrend could sustain. If momentum weakens further, there’s a risk of a pullback towards support levels near $8.00-$8.50.

"It’s Not Easy" covers a wealth of investment wisdom, focusing on second-level thinking, the challenges of making superior investments, and the risks associated with following popular trends.

Here are some key takeaways that may be helpful for your future analysis:

1. Second-Level Thinking: Marks emphasizes that to outperform, you need to think differently from the crowd—first-level thinking is simplistic and surface-level, while second-level thinking requires deeper, more nuanced analysis. For instance, it's not just about identifying a good company, but understanding how the market views it and where you can find a mismatch in expectations.

2. Investment Complexity: Investing isn't supposed to be easy, and anyone who thinks it is likely underestimates the nuances involved. Marks discusses how markets efficiently eliminate easy opportunities for excess returns due to the constant participation of well-informed investors.

3. Counterintuitiveness of Risk: Marks also highlights how the perception of risk can be counterintuitive. When everyone believes something is risky, its price tends to decrease, which can make it a safer bet. Conversely, when the consensus deems something safe, its price might be inflated, increasing its risk.

4. Loneliness of Superior Investors: Successful investing often involves being contrarian, leading to loneliness as you're likely to hold positions others deem unattractive. However, superior returns come from identifying overlooked qualities or mispricings that the broader market doesn’t see.

5. Price vs. Value: The memo reiterates that price alone doesn't make an investment attractive—investors must focus on the relationship between price and intrinsic value. The price of a seemingly high-quality asset may be too high, while a lower-quality asset could be undervalued and offer a safer investment.

These insights can guide your future analysis by emphasizing the need for deeper research, avoiding herd mentality, and focusing on finding value where others aren't looking.