“The chart on the screen is the real market, not the one in our heads…”

The huge rally in stocks that began on October 4th, 2019, is in jeopardy. A couple of large down days have broken the steepness of the uptrend, but not the uptrend itself.

So, the $SPX chart is weakening, but hasn't completely capitulated to the bearish case yet. There is resistance at 3340 (the all-time highs) and there is support, as noted, at 3210. So if it continues to bounce around in that range, it would just be "re-generating," but a breakout in either direction should be significant.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals.

Market breadth has been poor, and both breadfth oscillators are on sell signals.

$VIX closed above 16 on January 27th, and that gave us the sell signal. This establishes an intermediate- term uptrend in $VIX which will remain intact as long as $VIX continues to close above 15.

So, for the most part part our indicators are bearish, and a "core" bearish position is warranted. An $SPX close below 3200 would add fuel to the fire.

"In summary, it seems as if the market is slowing down, but the indicators are still overwhelmingly bullish, as the only sell signals right now are the put-call ratios and breadth. Thus, it is important to wait for $SPX and $VIX to confirm before attempting to take a strong bearish position."

SP chart is extended, overbought, as are many other indicators, but the bullish trend remains intact. Sell-off gives us a chance to see whether the underlying trend is still strong or not.

                           If VIX closes above 16, that would be a sell signal for stocks.

McClellan Oscillator poked below zero. This could mean a similar pullback to previous pullbacks within an uptrend or the beginning of something deeper.

In summary, the line of least resistance, the trend of the stock market is higher, and we do not have any confirmed sell signals at this time. For this reason, we remain bullish. But the overbought conditions are worrisome and so are the comparisons to January 2018.

When it come to an international crisis, throw your studies away, it will all mean nothing.

Hmm, puzzling non-confirmation of gold's gains Friday and today.

"I want to share this principle as I think it’s important to think about what your one big thing is when thinking about your New Years Resolutions. Everyone has at least one big thing that stands in the way of their success; find yours and deal with it. Write down what your one big thing is (such as identifying problems, designing solutions, pushing through to results) and why it exists (your emotions trip you up...you can’t visualize adequate possibilities). While you and most people probably have more than one major impediment, if you can remove or get around that one really big one, you will hugely improve your life.”

"Remember, your mental limitations are of your own making."

For years, athletes attempted to run a mile in four minutes but it seemed to be a barrier that no one could overcome. Then on May 6, 1954, a British runner named Roger Gilbert Bannister ran a mile in 3:59.4 minutes to establish a world record. Soon afterward, other runners broke Bannister’s record. Too often, we accept conventional wisdom as fact. Make sure you set your goals high enough. Don’t settle for less because of limitations you place upon yourself. Most of us never really reach the level of achievement of which we are capable because we don’t challenge ourselves to do so. Perhaps Robert Browning said it best: “A man’s reach should exceed his grasp, / Or what’s a heaven for?”

Welcome to 2020.

An extended period of geopolitical calm was shattered late Thursday when the U.S. conducted a military air strike in Baghdad, Iraq that killed a top Iranian general along with an Iraqi paramilitary leader. The U.S. said Iran was planning to kill Americans in the Middle East. The strike also comes after the major attack on a Saudi oil installation a few months ago, in which the U.S. blamed Iran. Iran promised harsh retaliation. The keen uncertainty regarding this situation, including how Iran will respond, is likely to keep the global marketplace on edge.