Sunday, 24 June 2018

Do you remember 2000 and 2008 crashes ?

We all remember how painful the 2000 and 2008 crashes were. But in both cases, high-earning boomers kept right on pouring their paychecks into the stock market. This fuelled recoveries, and markets clawed back their big losses to achieve new highs.  
In the coming crash, there will be no rich baby boomers to step in and “buy the dip.”  
Instead, they’ll be retiring by the millions… selling stocks instead of buying.  
If you’re “holding the bag” when it all hits the fan, you’re likely looking at what traders call permanent loss of capital. That means you’ll suffer massive losses that you may never make back.  
The math is clear. Total retirement assets in the U.S. are about $28.2 trillion. The vast majority is owned by boomers who’ll soon be permanently retired.  
Do you know how much the entire U.S. stock market is worth?  
Just under $30 trillion.  
I hope the danger is clear to you.  
A freight train is speeding toward us at 200 miles per hour.  
And right now is our chance to step off the train tracks.  
Ask yourself: can your wealth endure a 60% permanent loss?  
Say you have $200,000 invested in stocks. Will your retirement be OK if the value plummets to $80,000 and takes years and years to recover?  
I think that for a lot of us, the answer is “absolutely not.”  
Look, the coming crash will cause financial hardship for those who don’t see it coming.  
But that doesn’t have to be you.  

Friday, 15 June 2018

While US stocks look unstoppable, the biggest investment bank in Europe looks to be headed for a crisis.

Deutsche Bank (DB), which has failed to make a profit for the past three years, has dropped to new all-time lows. Everything about DB screams disaster. It has lost a stunning 93% of its value since 2008. It’s laying off staff. And US authorities have put it on a list of troubled lenders. As recently as 2007, DB was the second largest bank in the world by assets. Today it ranks nowhere near the top ten. In fact, its market cap has shrunk to a tiny $20 billion.

Monday, 4 June 2018

'The tug-o-war continues.'

The market is faced with three major headwinds: 1) quantitative tightening by the US Federal Reserve, 2) the potential devaluation of fiat within next couple of years, and 3) the potential break up of the EU. This is countered by the near record levels of quantitative easing that continue to flow into US stocks. The tug-o-war continues.

Monday, 28 May 2018

'Ever see a dog chase his tail?'

Contrary to common logic and consensus expectations, Fed rate hikes and balance sheet reduction will only exaggerate budding inflation concerns.
The economy has never experienced a sustained reduction in the monetary base of the magnitude currently underway. The path of QT and higher rates, that the Fed is currently on, will counter-intuitively increase inflation while reducing economic growth.

Sunday, 13 May 2018

Separation of $ and State

'Unsurprisingly, global debt still would tower over the value of the cryptospace as it currently stands at $233 trillion, and continues to grow. Indeed, bitcoin should nicely accomplish the separation of money and state much as we have had separation of church and state. This will help put an end to central bank money printing which remains the biggest legalized Ponzi scheme ever. Meanwhile, as the renowned Naval Ravikant has said, "Bitcoin is freeing humanity from corrupt governments, all the while disguised as a Ponzi scheme." 

In the meantime, how do governments unwind the QE-generated debt without undoing the QE-bull market which began in 2009? According to Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio, a major devaluation of fiat currencies is coming within the next few years as quantitative easing has failed to jump start the global economy even after nearly a decade of money printing. The cryptospace is likely to be the primary beneficiary of such a devaluation. Centralized systems which include centralized governments and corporations will pay the ultimate price since decentralized, open source, trustless, p2p, censorship resistant, private, secure protocols will always win over centralized, closed source, third party, insecure platforms'.

Tuesday, 8 May 2018

I'd like to know how many of you think that the world sits at a major tipping point economically, financially, socially, and politically?

'The brilliance behind blockchain is that governments in their current form are rendered obsolete as the technology eliminates the need for trusted third parties (TTPs). Ed Seykota writes that governments have always controlled by initially reducing then quashing productivity and freedom, and details his point nicely in his book "Govopoly in the 39th Day". 39th day is the analogy to duckweed in pond ecosystems. Duckweed doubles each day so goes unnoticed the first 25 or so days. But by the time it is noticed, it is too late to reverse its course. On the 40th day, duckweed strangles all life in the pond. Seykota equates the current systems of government to being one day away from the 40th day given the beyond onerous levels of regulation, taxation, and unjust rights-crippling laws not just in third world countries but also in first world nations. The world sits at a major tipping point economically, financially, socially, and politically.'