"Focus."

Where to focus:

For the beginner, execution.

For the intermediate, strategy.

For the expert, mindset.

 

In summary, stocks have struggled this week, but the SP-500 has managed to remain above support and the chart is still bullish, and that is the most important indicator.

In summary, SP-500 remains positive, so bullish positions should continue to be held -- rolling up and/or raising trailing stops.

There is a lot of negative "noise," but all one really needs to know is that the chart of SP-500 (and the others) remains strongly positive. The first support level is at 3725-3750. Below there, the next support area is 3630-3650.

"History repeats itself, that's one of the things that's wrong with history.”

#2 - On a Journey.

You have been sent on a journey. You had no choice about when or where it started. You don't know when, where or how it will end. You have no map. All you know for sure is that it's bound to end sometime. There are rules that apply to this journey, but you've had to learn them as you go. And you cannot control them. You may not even know the purpose of the journey, even though others claim to know.

All you know that once started, you must continue every day, whether you feel like it or not. You start with no possessions, and when you finish you have to turn in all you have accumulated. In the end, say some, you will be rewarded or punished. But how do they know for sure? 

That's life, my friends, and you cannot change it. A little faith and a sense of humor, fortunately, help cushion some of the bumps. 

Years ago, the great Sir John Templeton said, “The secret of my success is that I buy when everyone is selling, and I sell when everyone is buying.”

Let’s consider the optimism that exists everywhere at the moment.

Today, optimism on the U.S. equity markets has rarely, if ever, been this bullish. Two words: “All in!”

Valuations are extremely high. Forward coming returns are likely flat to negative over the coming years.

If there was ever a Sir John “sell when everyone is buying” moment, it’s now. If there was ever a time to hedge, it’s now. Down 50% to 60% remains a real risk. We may go higher… the Fed may decide to step in and buy equities. Don’t know. That’s the bet. Stay on your toes and keep top of mind that faith was bestowed on both Greenspan and Bernanke also, and that bullish Fed narrative lasted until confidence was lost.

All bubbles eventually pop.