Market environment dictates how much and how active we should be trading, not strategy signals. If you don’t know your market environment and what fits you and your strategy best….then you don’t have a true strategy.

"There are at least six different market types. You should understand how your system will perform in each of them."

a. Bull volatile

b. Bull quiet

c. Sideways volatile

d. Sideways quiet

e. Bear quiet (almost doesn’t exist)

f. Bear volatile 

ARKK -

In this environment every trade starts as a scalp, right or right out, if it works morphs into swing and then into position.

Yesterday the Nasdaq had the largest distribution day since this correction started. We have not seen volume consistent with capitulation and put volume did not pick up meaningfully, which is a sign of complacency.

Historian Dan Carlin recently wrote: For all its evil, war sometimes has a tiny silver lining. It can clarify the mind and reboot our ethical compass. It puts less serious things in perspective. It nudges us towards our neighbor and reminds us that our needs and interests are intertwined. It reignites our compassion.

"Inflation has a long tail. It tends to persist for at least a couple of years after it starts to spike. The 1970s were illustrative of this. This suggests that crippling double digit inflation will perniciously persist worldwide until at least 2024. The real rate of inflation in the U.S. is not 7.5% but somewhere above 20%"