ARKK -

In this environment every trade starts as a scalp, right or right out, if it works morphs into swing and then into position.

Yesterday the Nasdaq had the largest distribution day since this correction started. We have not seen volume consistent with capitulation and put volume did not pick up meaningfully, which is a sign of complacency.

Historian Dan Carlin recently wrote: For all its evil, war sometimes has a tiny silver lining. It can clarify the mind and reboot our ethical compass. It puts less serious things in perspective. It nudges us towards our neighbor and reminds us that our needs and interests are intertwined. It reignites our compassion.

"Inflation has a long tail. It tends to persist for at least a couple of years after it starts to spike. The 1970s were illustrative of this. This suggests that crippling double digit inflation will perniciously persist worldwide until at least 2024. The real rate of inflation in the U.S. is not 7.5% but somewhere above 20%"

Buying the invasion worked wonders in the past. Will it be different this time?

Volatile days for commodity investors will be ahead. The financial atomic bomb in form of a Russian exclusion from SWIFT could cause additional trouble. The odds are high that Russia would stop oil, gas and wheat exports into the EU as soon as the SWIFT exclusion would be ratified. As Russia is the single most important supplier for the EU - this could lead, once again, to lots of trouble for energy and grain prices.