Wisdom.

I see the younger generation [of hedge fund managers] hampered by the need to

understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that

information on fundamentals, and what little information one could get was largely imperfect. We 

becomes self-evident, the move is already over. When I got into the business, there was so little

learned just to go with the chart. Why work when Mr. Market can do it for you? These days, there

are many more deep intellectuals in the business, and that, coupled with the explosion of

information on the Internet, creates the illusion that there is an explanation for everything.. There

are young men and women graduating from college who have a tremendous work ethic, but they

get lost trying to understand the logic behind a whole variety of market moves. [At the end of a

bull market or bear market] there's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no

class can teach you what to do during that brief, volatile, reign.

-Paul Tudor Jones

Capital preservation still remains the most important priority.

Tomorrow we'll see if today's action can be shaken off and we get end of quarter push up trade or we go down to test and potentially violate that lower flag line.

SP-500 now.

daily view

1-hour view

10-min. view

If you have rode this move higher, take some profits. Reduce you risk some in front of the Fed decision. You can always reposition afterwards. If you miss some points, so be it. We are still in a big range and it isn't wise to push your luck too far. 

Greed & Fear

There is a little known element about Greed & Fear: Greed is actually a variant of Fear — the fear of missing the move higher, fear of leaving profits on the table, fear of losing clients, fear of lower income, fear of losing your job. Hence, when most people say that Fear & Greed drives the market, they are really saying FEAR drives the market in both directions. True Greed doesn’t come into the picture until we get to the stupid phase — think DotComs bubble 1999 or Housing bubble 2005.

The tone has changed.

I went long and my account was up, supporting my scenario, but I sold out at up 2.83% on the account and went into cash today at the end of the day. Just want to get a new perspective and be ready to go with the money flow rather then the story. Focus on the price action. We are still in a range. Big move is coming.

Bears will have their chance at the market tomorrow but the fact that the market continues to hold firm into the Fed must be recognized.