"Beware of him who tries to poison your mind against another under the pretense of helping you. The chances are a thousand to one he is trying to help himself."

 South African poet and painter Breyten Breytenback tells of a black man named Freedom who was the property of a one-legged slave owner in the days before the abolition of slavery. Whenever the owner bought a new pair of shoes, he gave the left one, which he couldn’t use, to Freedom. Eventually, wearing two left shoes deformed Freedom’s right foot, and he was permanently crippled by the “generosity” of his master. Don’t be fooled by people who attempt to further their own interests under the guise of helping you. Listen to advice from others, thank them for their interest, and make up your own mind about what is best. Follow their advice if it fits with your plan for your life, but don’t hesitate to discard it if it doesn’t. In all the world, there is only one individual who knows what is best for you, and that person is you.

The most important decision you make is to be in a good mood.

 

Tumbling stock markets show that investors are increasingly concerned about Fed rate hikes, the war, and rising energy prices.

Since 1970, each time the oil price increased by close to 100% from a year ago, the U.S. economy entered a recession. However, oil prices are now less of a burden compared to the past, as the U.S. is a net exporter of oil. Thus, rising prices do not necessarily point to a recession ahead.

Odds of a recession have certainly increased in recent weeks and any further escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine would represent a significant drag on growth. For investors it makes sense to remain defensive. Not being fully invested in stocks, holding significant amounts of cash, keeping gold as the ultimate safe haven, and adding oil stocks as a geopolitical hedge should help to reduce portfolio volatility in uncertain times.