In summary, the line of least resistance is still to the upside, but lately we have had more reversals and breakout failures than I've seen in a long time. Stocks have been breaking out of bases, just no follow-through.

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Math.

 You gain 100% and lose 50% 10 times, you break even. You gain 10% and lose 5% 10 times, you make 71.64%. The key to big returns is optimal math, not the biggest wins.

In summary, the line of least resistance is still to the upside. After getting to all time highs a week ago, the market has lost some of its mojo this week. The overbought conditions are slowly beginning to take a toll.

SP- 500 support is at this week's lows around 4120, with stronger support just below the March highs, and the major support at 3870. If 4000 is penetrated that would be a short term negative, and if 3870 is penetrated that would be a major change of trend.

GDX - monthly view

  Now fiscal and monetary stimulus as well as negative sentiment could be potentially bullish for the metal.