trading

trading

Saturday, 8 February 2020

Support level that matters -- 3210 on $SPX held and the bulls are back.

For more confirmation, watch if $SPX can close above 3337 and $VIX can close below 15 again.

Tuesday, 4 February 2020

"Parabolic advances usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways."

                                 this is a good example of a "real" parabolic advance

Saturday, 1 February 2020

"Focus is the art of knowing what to ignore."

"models...in times of crisis, the firm will pull back [risk] when they’re not sure, when they’re worried, and that’s part of that humility...they don’t have this arrogance...they get scared like you and I...in those kind of times [panic], [Simons] overruled his colleagues and he said, ‘Yes, we’ll probably make money here if we stick with our models, but I’m worried about surviving’

“The chart on the screen is the real market, not the one in our heads…”

The huge rally in stocks that began on October 4th, 2019, is in jeopardy. A couple of large down days have broken the steepness of the uptrend, but not the uptrend itself.
So, the $SPX chart is weakening, but hasn't completely capitulated to the bearish case yet. There is resistance at 3340 (the all-time highs) and there is support, as noted, at 3210. So if it continues to bounce around in that range, it would just be "re-generating," but a breakout in either direction should be significant.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals.
Market breadth has been poor, and both breadfth oscillators are on sell signals.
$VIX closed above 16 on January 27th, and that gave us the sell signal. This establishes an intermediate- term uptrend in $VIX which will remain intact as long as $VIX continues to close above 15.
So, for the most part part our indicators are bearish, and a "core" bearish position is warranted. An $SPX close below 3200 would add fuel to the fire.