Based on history, US recession coming very soon.

"The Philly Fed State Coincident Index fell in 22 states in October. When the average 1-month index has fallen to 50% or less, the economy is usually at or near the early stages of a recession."

Today's surge on CPI, while strong enough to carry a little bit further in the near term, is a junk off the low rally led by the beaten down past leaders that are in strong down trends. To enjoy a sustainable new bull market, we need fresh new shares leading the charge.

long - way to go-)

"Traders are independent thinkers. They’re loners, they’re the lone wolfs out there. They do their own research, they eat their own cooking. They don’t have to rely on anybody else for anything. They don’t take their losses personally. They learn from them. They understand that there’s randomness. They understand that there’s good luck and bad luck, good timing and bad timing. And there’s self-sufficient."

There are currently less than 200 stocks in confirmed Stage 2 uptrends, so there's still work to do in establishing solid participation to fuel a sustainable new uptrend but keep in mind, the best stocks bottom before the indexes.

"Context is King" - In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.

I'd suggest you make self-to-self comparison to measure progress.

As of end of September 2022. 

"in the multi-strategy and fixed-income categories, according to Peter Laurelli, global head of research at eVestment. The ten largest multi-strategy funds lost 2.1 percent year-to-date, significantly better than the entire group’s loss of 3.4 percent. The ten largest fixed-income funds lost an average of 1.5 percent in 2022"

"All life is an experiment. The more experiments you make the better."

"when the cops raid the brothel, even the piano player gets arrested"

"The market is the sum total of the wisdom and the ignorance of all of those who deal in it and we dare not argue with the market’s wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we’ve learned indeed."

 

"Velocity begets more velocity."

During the bear markets of 2000-2003 and 2007-2008 the Fed was lowering rates. Now in this 2022 bear market the Fed is raising rates and that's the major difference that has the potential to create all sorts of unintended and unexpected consequences.

Historically speaking..........

"The weakest time of the year for the S&P 500 has been from September 6 to October 25."

Under most circumstances, the markets will be either readable or reliable.

"We registered blow off volume around the lows (1) then got some nice upside confirmation volume during the subsequent rally (2) however, better than 10:1 up vs. down volume came back into the market last week (3); an indication that institutions were using strength to sell into."

"During the 2000 bear market the NASDAQ rallied 40%, 28%, 41%, 50% and 36%." All of them nothing more than bear market rallies with very few stock working from breakouts.

Markets trying to rally but breadth pretty crummy. Been a while since we've seen that.

 to help you visualize

Another thought-provoking chart.