"On Ukraine, Russia, NATO, and WW 3"

Putin follows a Stalinesque ideology given his upbringing. He views the fall of the USSR as the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century." Putin wants Russia to be the global dominant force with the annexation that only begins with Ukraine.

Ukraine has been a legitimate country since 1991 when the USSR fell as recognized in the Lisbon Protocol along with the 1991 law "On Legal Succession of Ukraine". Russia has no entitlement over Ukraine. If history is any guide, Chamberlain's appeasement towards Hitler allowed him to annex the Sudetenland led to WW 2. Such authoritarian aggressors cannot be appeased.

At present, the US, EU, and UK are appeasing Putin by limiting the sanctions. With record debt, soaring inflation, and hampered GDPs, the concerns of major allies about the cost of energy and fuel remain high leaving many sanctions against Russia off the table. Such nations continue to buy from Russia as to them, the price of blood of innocents is less important than euros or points at the polls. At the very least, barring Russia from SWIFT would be a good move yet has yet to happen.

No NATO country can risk a casualty caused by Russia as this would trigger NATO's Article 5 in which all NATO allies jointly enter into a war which could lead to WW 3. So Ukraine stands on its own with Putin already having calculated ways to work around sanctions; he now favors bitcoin. Russia’s own advance preparation, in particular its build up of more than $600 billion in international reserves, will also help it weather the sanctions. Putin warned: “The United States will not be left out, with its ordinary citizens feeling the consequences of the price increase in full.” Putin has said that while the US may have more global power, Russia has nuclear weapons.

Even if Russia ends its attempts to annex Ukraine, they are likely to leave a Vichy government and a permanent military presence in the country to use that as leverage against NATO. If the sanctions imposed on Russia are ineffective, then no tool outside war will compel them to slow down their aggression given Putin's mindset. Georgia and other countries are at risk.

The only fundamental factor that really matters in the stocks market is "The Law of Supply and Demand".

 RTY - 100 w-ma@1942

"War, Power, Diversion and Inflation"

"Never change things by fighting the existing reality.........to change something build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete."

Food for thought.

"~2/3 of stocks underperform the index, ~50% have no ROR, ~25% go to zero. It’s these big outliers that really make [all] the performance. The power law of investing, 5-10% of stocks generate all the returns."

'Magazine covers often indicate completion of discount.'

"When the ride ends"

 

Gold - eating the tail

 gap up today , over $18

"As per Goldman Sacks, short sales increased at fastest rate in more than 10 years during last five weeks."

                         Professional speculators are reloading bets against stock market.

"5-10 year time horizon"?

Averaging down on her 11 mil. share debacle, the media felt safe betting on SKLZ because the stock was down 75% and Cathie was still bullish based on fundamentals.

How much lower can it go? Answer: 67% MORE before she sold it. All in less than 6 mos.

Good morning.

Now some people say, "don't try to time your investments." But, if you thought your stock was going to go down, you would not have bought it in the first place, you would have waited to buy it lower. You bought it because you thought the time was right.

"When working with people, assume good intentions. When listening to people, interpret their words in a generous way. You will occasionally get burned and mistreated by always assuming the best in others, but it is a far better way to live than the opposite."

Big institutions are unwinding on every rip so far.

The market is on sale, very oversold, and could produce a strong technical bounce at any time.

                                              RTY at the 100-week-MA

"Sometimes you win, sometimes you learn."

 “Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt.”

Buying the dip won't work if the Fed is doing the opposite of before. You should do reverse, selling the rip.

The only Real news is what the market is doing.

Semis are still holding up. Oilers continue to move on higher and that is where the alpha is at the moment. Aerospace and Defense stocks are acting well. Growth names remain under distribution and the IPO's are getting hammered.

Gold -

 

commercials hold an extreme short position

"Historically – across all commodities – extreme short positions by Commercials is a head-wind against a sustained advance."  Yet, the last two “super” bull trends in Gold began with extreme short positioning by Commercials.

"Regime change."

Starting now in 2022, US equity markets will begin a transition from a “monetary market” into a “fiscal market.” This is due to the pending end of historic accommodative monetary policy by world central banks. These changes will  present significant opportunities - for skilled - but they will also present significant risks - to unprepared.

Business.

The most important asset any business has is its people, train them well and they will serve you well. They have potential to drive your business to incredible achievements. As a group they are your Mental Capital.

In trading business, everyone wants their trading to be optimal. They look to optimize their strategies in all possible ways. The one thing they fail to work on is optimizing their-self, the person doing the trading.