The trend is up for now.

                                 observe participation, volume

"Global Stagnation"

Now in sync with other central banks, Chinese markets leaped as its central bank cut its one-year interest rate for the first time in three years to relieve a worsening liquidity situation in the local bond market.
Over in Europe, GDP in the EU grew by a scant 0.2% in the last quarter ended September while the European Union Commission cut its forecasts for growth and inflation, warning that the worst is still to come for the euro zone economy. The Commission said growth will stay sluggish through 2021, at a forecast 1.2% with inflation to stay around 1.3%, well below the ECB's 2% target, with just a scant 0.7% in France and 0.3% in Italy.
Christine Lagarde now heads the ECB. She has lambasted Germany, the Netherlands, and other EU countries for not running a looser fiscal policy. Expect the ECB to continue to accelerate QE.
Over the last decade, rates in some countries have been cut to 0% or negative percent where quantitative easing was initiated through almost every fixed income asset available. In 2018, the central banks tried to unwind QE. Markets reacted badly. In December 2018, Fed Chair Powell reversed course and gave the markets what they wanted- more QE. The month of December 2018 was the low for major U.S. exchanges. Other central banks had no choice but to follow the same course, driving their balance sheets to record levels. 

Lagarde says the ECB should boost their fiscal spending, using their budget surpluses to fund investments that would help stimulate the economy. But given the current state of the economy, this is one of the last things that central banks and governments can do to spur some growth. If that does not work, we move on to helicopter money. It seems central bankers are willing to send rates to even more negative levels if it means kicking the can on a global, populist uprising. Indeed, Lagarde noted, "We should be happier to have a job than to have our savings protected." 
Meanwhile, US debt has grown from $19 trillion to $22 trillion under Trump, despite his election promises of going to bring the US budget deficit down 'bigly'.
Adding insult to injury as concerns global growth, agreement between the U.S. and China on trade issues appeared to be closing in on the first phase of a deal, but that was an illusion, and the countries have disappointed numerous times, so material progress could still be a long way off if both countries continue to play hard ball. China could play the waiting game of seeing whether or not Trump is re-elected in 2020 while Trump could see his reelection as secure thus demand more than China is willing to give.

Will exponential-growth technologies save the day or at least mitigate the depths of the next recession? Stay tuned.

The basics of technical analysis.

Don't over think. Sit on your hands. Let the trade come to you.

                                                                Miro

"‘No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than successful speculation."

A stronger than expected reading of the October jobs report provided more bullish fodder for stocks, as the S&P 500 sat higher by nearly 1% late in the session to close at a new record high.

The trend is up now, no hedges on. Risk on.

Stocks finally broke through, with the S&P maintaining early gains throughout the day to finish at a new high and up 21.25% year-to-date.

"Risk-taking is an inevitable ingredient in investing, and in life, but never take a risk you do not have to take."

The market is still exploring around the top side of the range.

The trend is still down, but only half hedges are on as of today.

The trend is still down, full hedges on.

What ? four 1% swings in four hours !

Edge of your seat or under your seat may both be good spots to watch the U.S.-China trade talk-show getting under way today.

Stocks caught a bid with the S&P 500 rising nearly 1% to erase the bulk of yesterday’s losses.

Volatility has returned to the stage, as the broad index has now moved up or down more than 50 basis points in five of the past six trading sessions.

Recap Oct. 8

Stocks were hammered with the S&P 500 falling more than 1.5%, as the broad index now sits more than 4% below its July 26 high-water mark. The VIX jumped above 20.

All in one day, from risk on to risk off. The trend is now down, full hedges on.

“There’s an old adage, ‘don’t fight the Fed.’ Means that if the Fed is on a tightening course, don’t be long. And if the Fed is lowering rates, as now, don’t be short. Doesn’t always hold true, but often enough to [not] ignore. The Fed has a lot of tools to achieve its objectives.”

A mid-day report that the White House is considering steps to limit investor flows into Chinese equities helped the bears keep control, as the S&P 500 finished the week 1% lower for its worst close since Sept. 4.

Risk is still on. The trend is still up, no hedges on.

This afternoon, the crypto complex absorbed an intense downdraft, with the price of bitcoin falling roughly $1,000 and settling at $8,560.

Stocks came under pressure with the S&P 500 dropping 80 basis points, to narrow its 2019 advance to 18.4%. 

"Acceptance"

For many of us, acceptance is a hard thing to swallow. Especially when things go against us. Yet when it comes to trading, accepting the outcomes of all your trades, not just the good ones, is going to be key to your longevity.

There will always be situations out of our control that are going to see us giving back some profits. Or taking a loss. Yet just as we are happy to give ourselves a pat on the back for our wins, we also need to accept responsibility for our losses. After all it was us that pulled the trigger.

Here are a few tips and reality checks towards accepting everything that we do in our trading. Whether the outcomes end up being in our favour or not.

1. Failure can follow success / Success can follow failure

It’s easy to get over confident when you have a few winning trades in a row. It’s also easy to get down on yourself following a few losses. Yet this is the name of the game. Accept that there are ups and down in this business. So long as you have a solid methodology, don’t allow your psychology to second guess it.

2. Understand that there are risks in every trade

Everything in life is a risk. You can wrap yourself in cotton wool and never go outside the house to lower your risk of failure. Yet that is not what life is about. After you have taken a trade, if you are constantly looking at your phone and swearing at it when your trade goes against you, then you have not accepted the consequences of risk. When you do accept these consequences, sure you might swear about your loss. Yet you’ll get over it quickly and move onto the next trade.

3. Markets WILL move against you

Even your best trades will spend time back filling before moving forward again. It is the nature of the market. Accept the process and don’t panic yourself out of perfectly executed trades.

4. No one knows what the markets are going to do at any given moment

We say this a lot, yet as soon as we accept this fact as traders, life suddenly becomes a whole lot easier. Add this one to your affirmations and a weight will be lifted off your shoulders. Ego is about thinking that you know. Trading is about processes. And the discipline to follow those processes no matter what so called experts are yelling at you.

5. You are going to be wrong – A LOT

Accepting that trading is different to nearly every other profession is important. For one, you don’t have to be right most of the time to keep your job. Some of the most profitable and successful traders only win half the time.

Yesterday the Fed came in with a .25% rate cut, this rate cut should put a floor until big cap stocks pay out dividends equal to the 10 year note or higher.