follow up, cgw

support is still holding 

Asset class performance review.

Life.

For a long time it had seemed to me that life was about to begin. But there was always some obstacle in the way, something to be gotten through first, some unfinished business, time still to be served, a debt to be paid. Then life would begin. At last it dawned on me that these obstacles were my life.

~ Alfred D Souza

Follow up, CGW, support levels were tested and successfully defended today.

                                        observe and learn how to profit

"the most important attribute"

A great trader and a friend of mine once said:  “I will tell you I am good at trading. I am good at investing. I am good at making decisions. I am good at admitting mistakes and that’s my best trait. I am really, really good at admitting mistakes. And that’s to me the most important attribute that an investor, that a trader, that somebody who’s trying to make a living matching wits in the market can have is the ability to admit that they are wrong. That trumps all other concerns. Education doesn’t seem to have that much viability to me. It’s the ability to say I’m wrong.”

Panoramic View Of Karlovac.

Daniel Butala

                  

Your primary job as trader is to devise a plan that will get you profits that are large multiples of your initial risk.

I emphasize, as I always do, that one of the keys to successful trading is to have an exit strategy in place before ever entering a position. That enables a trader to get out if he is wrong on direction. The strategy needs to be one that permits profits to run while creating a disciplined unemotional exit that initially is both clear and close to the entry. In that fashion, prediction no longer controls. The successful trader, instead, simply reacts to the price movement. Having a plan that incorporates money management, reward to risk potential and disciplined exit strategy can supply an edge that prediction doesn't. The key, of course, is to learn how to make the profits from the winners significantly exceed the losses from the losers.

There is no substitute for water.

An idea for research.

Lower support levels were thoroughly tested and successfully defended today.

At this time there is not much of an edge to be found. In time, that is going to change. But, until that moment we have to stay patient, protect our capital and be prepared for the next move in ether direction.

Inverse correlation.

If you look back in recent history you notice inverse correlation between U.S. Dollar and Equities. Meaning, when dollar goes down,  shares go up, and when dollar goes up shares go down. Now we can watch for the same pattern to continue and/or for possible divergence to get an edge.

U.S. Dollar Index

Closed above 50 day average price first time in approximately four months.

for more insights on dollar trade see blog 23 April

The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an offer to buy any securities

follow up, Silver

Patience doesn't mean just waiting, it means being able to sit and learn.
 Learn whatever you feel you need to learn.

for more insights regarding silver trade see blog 25 April

The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an offer to buy any securities

Silver's worst four-day drop in over 30 years.

According to historical precedent: 
Markets that show this amount of pronounced accumulation followed by sharp liquidation do not completely heal and repair themselves in weeks, but usually months, if not a year or more.

most important is to keep on playing the game

The most important thing you must learn in trading the market is to cut your losses short and never ever take too big a loss. I know this from my personal experience. Keep drawdowns low ( 5%loss needs 5.3%gain for recovery, and 10%loss requires 11.1%gain for recovery, and 30%loss requires 42.9%gain just to get even, think about it ) and keep on playing the game day in and day out. Remember that "position neutral is A position" and if you stay in the game long enough you make lots of money.

Energy goes from leader to laggard.

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_ignore_this_chart/2011/05/energy-goes-from-leader-to-laggard-xle.html

"calm before the storm"

neutral bias here

Managing Risk.

Mark Minervini suggests those steps to reduce risk.


10 Steps to Take to Reduce Portfolio Risk 
1. Get off margin immediately
2. Raise at least 25-50% cash
3. If you choose to trade, take smaller than normal position sizes
4. Reduce overexposure in any one industry group and diversify more broadly
5. Reduce exposure to high beta stocks
6. Avoid laggard stocks (even if they look cheap) 
7. Nail down profits when you have them (be less greedy)
8. Tighten up your stop-losses (be less forgiving)
9. Sell all stocks that break down in price (especially if they can’t rally)
10.Upgrade in quality and reduce exposure to low priced stocks

mcp

                               

ung

\

The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an offer to buy any securities

UNG now.

We are close to our break even stop 11.79, and emotions are rising. Remember, we can always buy it back, and as always,

the rule # 1 is "do not lose money" 

it goes on the watch list for now

The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an offer to buy any securities

Tavis talks with billionaire financier and philanthropist George Soros.

http://video.pbs.org/video/1900738777