In summary, the line of list resistance continues to be to the upside. The momentum is strong and positive which has made the market overbought in a general sense, but overbought doesn't mean sell. Stay alert, markets can turn on a dime, and don't forget to enjoy the ride.

Contrary to what some believe, the stock market doesn’t trade on some formula or “intrinsic value” such as P/E ratios or price-to-book, etc. If analyzing balance sheets were the Holy Grail for stock investing, accountants would be the world’s greatest and richest traders.

Commodity returns not seen so bad since before WW2.

 

"No one can succeed and remain successful without the friendly cooperation of others."

The best way to get friendly cooperation is to give it. When you make it a practice to encourage others and to help them advance in their careers whenever possible, most will reciprocate when you need their help. Give generously, and you will benefit in kind.

New IPO - COIN.

 

Party at the mansion -)

 

Believe in what you see, not what you believe. The line of least resistance is still to the upside, but remember that markets look best at their highs and worst at their lows.

April is historically a great month for the stock market.

Over the past two decades, from 2000 to 2020, April has been the best month of the year with an average return of 2.5% and a positive return 80% of the time.

The SP-500 support now at 3870 area.

XLE

 

Today's price action looks like the beginning of the end of a long run.

Bullish seasonality for Nasdaq starting this week.

Early on in this morning's session we have a QQQ bounce coinciding with bullish seasonality but especially in conjunction with rates on the 10-Year Note relaxing. While the inverse correlation between rates and the Nasdaq may very well be overhyped (for now), it is also worth nothing that the trade may be a self-fulfilling prophecy at this point given how many eyes are watching the dynamic between the two markets. 

As a result, some of the best movers so far are in the Nasdaq. TSLA and SPLK are just two examples. And some beaten-down former monsters like OKTA and ZM are developing near-term potential double-bottoms on their daily charts.

In summary, the show goes on, this market clearly still belongs to the bulls, and the only confirmation left is a close above 3950 to set off the next leg higher. Since the SP-500 chart is the most important indicator, if it closes above 3950, it's an all-clear for the bulls. If that happens, SP-500 would have to fall back well into the previous trading range to cancel out that bullish signal.

# 4 Always Be Alert

Waiting in a steamship office to be interviewed  for a job as a wireless operator, a group of applicants filled the room with such a buzz of conversation that they were oblivious to the dots and dashes that began coming over the loudspeaker. 

About that time another man entered and sat down quietly by himself. Suddenly he snapped to attention, walked into the private office, and a few minutes latter came out smiling with a new job.

"Say," one of the group called out, "how did you get in ahead of us? We were here first."

"One of you would have gotten the job," the successful applicant replied, "if you had listened to the message from the loudspeaker." 

"What message/" they asked in surprise.

"Why the code," the man answered. "It said: "The man I need must always be on the alert. The first one who gets this message and comes directly into my private office will be placed on one of my ships as an operator.

The senate just cleared the next stimulus package. It then goes to the House this coming week where it is expected to also clear. Major stock averages are likely to resume their uptrend barring a last minute gridlock in the House.

'We've shifted to a market that's being driven by liquidity and emotion instead of valuation. Once the market drops valuation as a benchmark, it has lost its rudder.'

In summary, it seems likely that support at 3700 and perhaps 3630 will be tested. As long as those hold, one could argue that SP-500 is trading in a very volatile manner within a relatively wide trading range. Resistance at 3930 and support at 3700 to be watched closely. There are signals on both sides and some oversold conditions are building. A breakout of that range in either direction should be significant and would have some serious follow-through.

What now?

In summary, the SP-500 chart has been "wounded" a bit by falling below the January highs and by the fact that there is considerable overhead resistance at 3900-3950. However, that is not a bull market "killer." It could trade between that resistance level and 3630 and remain in a neutral state.

Whether or not a choppy Friday in today's context yields a crash Monday call over the weekend remains to be seen. And, frankly, should not yet be a factor until we at least see the afternoon action.

Observe, don't analyze and see, don't think; the third Friday in February of 2020 and this third Friday in February of 2021. SP-500 chart showing lots of similarities. January high is now support area to watch. For now, the line of least resistance continues to be to the upside. Move up the stops daily and enjoy the ride.

Years ago, the great Sir John Templeton said, “The secret of my success is that I buy when everyone is selling, and I sell when everyone is buying.”